Links and Notes - Tue, May 19, 2020

10:07 p.m.

We had south-southwest winds last Friday, and then the east winds started on Saturday, and we have had east winds since. East winds are forecast tomorrow. That will be five straight days of east winds. Lighter east winds are forecast for Thursday.

This is the first story that I've seen from the Blade about the weather along the lakeshore.

http://www.toledoblade.com/local/police-fire/2020/05/19/state-rte-2-in-Ottawa-County-closes-due-to-flooding/stories/20200519081

Strong northeast wind piled water into the Lake Erie coast from Sandusky Bay to the Detroit River on Tuesday, while heavy rain pushed many Toledo-area rivers over their banks.

While lakeshore flood warnings from two National Weather Service offices were slated to expire late Tuesday evening, moderate easterly winds were forecast for the lakefront Wednesday.

River flooding, meanwhile, was expected to persist for varying durations throughout the area.

The lakeshore flooding put part of State Rt. 2 near Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge under water along with causing street flooding in Port Clinton. Route 2 was closed between State Rts. 163 and 590.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
May 19, 2020 9:52 pm EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 57 F
Humidity : 80%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.09 in
Dewpoint: 51 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
May 19, 2020 9:53 pm EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 56 F
Humidity : 86%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.11 in
Dewpoint: 52 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
May 19, 2020 9:55 pm EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 55 F
Humidity : 83%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.10 in
Dewpoint: 50 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles


lakeshore hazard message
national weather service cleveland oh
938 pm edt tue may 19 2020

ohz003-007>009-200945-
/o.ext.kcle.ls.w.0007.000000t0000z-200521t0200z/
lucas-ottawa-sandusky-erie-
938 pm edt tue may 19 2020

...lakeshore flood warning now in effect until 10 pm edt
wednesday...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

if travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.


Flood Warning issued May 19 at 3:46PM EDT until May 21 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Cleveland

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Ohio...
Huron River Near Milan
Maumee River At Waterville
Eagle Creek Above Findlay
Portage River At Woodville
Black River At Elyria
...Flood warning extended until Thursday afternoon...The flood
warning continues for
The Maumee River At Waterville.
* Until Thursday afternoon.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river will rise to near 11.2 feet by this Wednesday afternoon.
The river will fall below flood stage Thursday night.
* At 12.0 feet...Flooding begins in Side Cut Metropark. The river is
out of banks in Waterville.


Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: May 19, 2020 7:42 pm

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. East wind 6 to 9 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 61. East wind 11 to 14 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. East wind 7 to 11 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 65. East wind around 9 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light after midnight.

Friday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.

Sunday: A chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Memorial Day: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

3:22 p.m.

It's still an overcast day, but it has not rained since about mid-morning, except maybe for some drizzle. Baltimore Oriole is singing nearby.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
May 19, 2020 2:52 pm EDT
Weather : Light Rain
Temperature : 59 F
Humidity : 83%
Wind Speed : ENE 16 mph
Barometer : 30.01 in
Dewpoint: 54 F
Visibility : 2.50 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
May 19, 2020 2:53 pm EDT
Weather : Light Rain
Temperature : 59 F
Humidity : 83%
Wind Speed : ENE 10 mph
Barometer : 30.02 in
Dewpoint: 54 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
May 19, 2020 2:55 pm EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 57 F
Humidity : 83%
Wind Speed : E 9 mph
Wind Gust 20 mph
Barometer : 30.03 in
Dewpoint: 52 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

10:22 a.m.

More rain fell a short while ago. We received a good amount of rain yesterday afternoon and evening and again before sunrise today.

I heard a Baltimore Oriole sing around our home early this morning.

Weather-wise, the forecast for tomorrow through Monday predicts stable, pleasant, warmer weather. We could see temps in the mid-80s on Sunday and Monday. That's too warm for me in May. I prefer 60s and 70s for highs and 40s and 50s as lows.

Barney's haircut appointment is scheduled for Wednesday, June 3. Hopefully,


Flood Warning issued May 19 at 6:27AM EDT until May 22 at 3:30AM EDT by NWS Cleveland

...The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a flood
warning for the following rivers in Ohio...
Maumee River At Waterville
The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Maumee River At Waterville
* from this afternoon to late Thursday night.
* There is no current observed data.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by late this
afternoon and continue to rise to near 12.3 feet by Wednesday
morning.The river will fall below flood stage by Thursday night.
* At 12.0 feet...Flooding begins in Side Cut Metropark. The river is
out of banks in Waterville.


lakeshore hazard message
national weather service cleveland oh
1011 am edt tue may 19 2020

ohz003-007>009-192215-
/o.con.kcle.ls.w.0007.000000t0000z-200520t0200z/
lucas-ottawa-sandusky-erie-
1011 am edt tue may 19 2020

...lakeshore flood warning remains in effect until 10 pm edt this
evening...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

if travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

$$

lombardy


flood watch
national weather service cleveland oh
332 am edt tue may 19 2020

ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-047-191600-
/o.ext.kcle.fa.a.0002.000000t0000z-200519t1600z/
/00000.0.er.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.oo/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-marion-morrow-knox-
including the cities of toledo, bowling green, port clinton,
fremont, sandusky, findlay, tiffin, norwalk, upper sandusky,
bucyrus, mansfield, marion, mount gilead, and mount vernon
332 am edt tue may 19 2020

...flood watch now in effect until noon edt today...

the flood watch is in effect for

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a flood watch is issued when there is a potential for flooding.
monitor the forecast and remain alert for possible flood
warnings. those in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to
take action should a flood warning be issued or if flooding
develops.


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
735 pm edt mon may 18 2020

ohz003-007>009-192345-
lucas-ottawa-sandusky-erie-
735 pm edt mon may 18 2020

...lakeshore flood warning in effect until 4 pm edt tuesday...
...flood watch in effect through tuesday morning...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

lakeshore flood warning.
flood watch.

.days two through seven...tuesday through sunday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

lakeshore flood warning.
flood watch.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.


Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
May 19, 2020 9:52 am EDT
Weather : Light Rain
Temperature : 59 F
Humidity : 90%
Wind Speed : ENE 13 mph
Barometer : 29.94 in
Dewpoint: 56 F
Visibility : 7.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
May 19, 2020 9:53 am EDT
Weather : Light Rain Fog/Mist
Temperature : 58 F
Humidity : 96%
Wind Speed : E 13 mph
Barometer : 29.96 in
Dewpoint: 57 F
Visibility : 5.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
May 19, 2020 9:55 am EDT
Weather : Light Rain
Temperature : 54 F
Humidity : 100%
Wind Speed : E 8 mph
Wind Gust 18 mph
Barometer : 29.97 in
Dewpoint: 54 F
Visibility : 3.00 statute miles


Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: May 19, 2020 6:28 am

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 3pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 61. East wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. East wind 9 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 62. East wind 14 to 17 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. East wind 6 to 11 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 66. East wind 7 to 9 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 78.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.

Sunday: A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Memorial Day: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
648 am edt tue may 19 2020

.synopsis...
weakening low pressure over southern indiana drifts to tennessee
by wednesday as high pressure builds over our region from the
north and northeast. the low pressure system continues to weaken
and should drift back toward the mid ohio valley on thursday
and friday as high pressure exits northern ohio and northwest
pennsylvania to the east.

&&

.near term /through wednesday/...
update...
made minor changes to pops and qpf for the rest of this morning
to better match latest radar imagery and the consensus of
short-term model guidance. remainder of the near-term forecast
remains valid.

previous discussion...
a surface low centered over southern indiana early this morning
moves to eastern tennessee by nightfall on wednesday.
simultaneously, this surface low will weaken as it becomes
vertically-stacked with its parent cutoff mid- to upper-level
low moving from the lower ohio valley. behind this low, a
surface high migrating from central quebec to the gulf of maine
will extend a ridge into our cwa as high pressure aloft builds
from the upper midwest.

the southeast to northwest-oriented warm conveyor belt of the
aforementioned low pressure system will continue undergoing
isentropic lift over our cwa amidst abundant moisture from the gulf
of mexico and gulf stream, and weak most-unstable cape. as a result,
sporadic rain showers are expected to affect our cwa today. however,
bands of training steady to heavy showers and perhaps embedded
thunderstorms will likely persist over and near the knox county to
wood county corridor this morning. total rainfall this morning is
forecast to reach one half to 1.5 inches in this corridor,
especially southwest of a mount vernon to bowling green line.
additional flooding is possible in and near this corridor. the flood
watch is now in effect until noon edt today for lucas, wood, and
hancock counties to erie, huron, richland, and knox counties in
northern ohio. while significant additional rainfall is not expected
across the entire watch area, notable rises along streams and
rivers may occur well downstream from where the heaviest and
most persistent rainfall is expected today. farther east in
northern ohio, the flood watch was cancelled since excessive
rainfall and stream rises leading to flooding no longer appear
possible. rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms should
become more sporadic over our entire cwa this afternoon and
tonight as the aforementioned low weakens, which will also cause
the warm conveyor belt, isentropic lift, and associated
moisture advection to weaken.

high temperatures should reach the 60s today, while tonights low
temperatures should reach the mid 40s to lower 50s, with the
warmest lows along and near the lake erie shore. skies trend
mostly cloudy or cloudy through tonight. odds favor fair
weather for our whole cwa on wednesday due to the building high
pressure ridge. afternoon highs should reach the low to mid
60`s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
the cutoff low will meander back north to the upper ohio valley to
end the work week. fortunately, with much less impact. moisture will
stream west-northwest from the appalachians. much of this will not
make it, but with a weak surface reflection and the upper low
drawing nearer, will have to have a chance for showers/thunderstorms
across the southern tier of counties through thursday and more of
the eastern half of the area for friday. not sure if we will need to
continue precipitation chances through friday night. high
temperatures will moderate to around 70 for thursday and lower 70s
for friday.

&&

.long term /saturday through monday/...
we will finally get to discuss a different pattern for this portion
of the forecast. by saturday, the pesky cutoff low will have exited
east of the region. mid level ridging begins to build for the
holiday weekend which translates to milder temperatures. by sunday a
warm front begins to take shape across central/northern oh. enough
instability may result in a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
still uncertainty in the degree and timing of a minor shortwave to
round the top of the ridge. this would act to invigorate a few of
those showers. monday also has early summer-like afternoon chances
for showers/thunderstorms as we get some better return flow.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
a surface low centered over north-central ky at 10:40z/tues
should move to eastern tn by 12z/wed. behind this low, a surface
high pressure ridge builds over our region from eastern canada.
the rain shield associated with the low is expected to pivot
southwestward with time and should gradually exit the region
from northeast to southwest through 12z/wed.

widespread ceilings are expected through the taf period.
conditions should trend vfr east of i-71. west of i-71, conditions
will vary between vfr and ifr this morning, with brief lifr possible
in heavier showers. by this afternoon, vfr will likely be prevalent
west of the interstate.

breezy surface winds will be easterly to southeasterly, with the
strongest winds expected between about 13z and 23z/tues. during
this time period, gusts around 25 knots should be common.

outlook...periods of non-vfr possible with scattered showers
and/or thunderstorms thursday through saturday.

&&

.marine...
east-northeast flow will continue across the lake today although by
afternoon the gradient will slacken slightly. will have to keep the
small craft advisory going for the entire nearshore waters up to ny
through this evening. the western basin may need continuation into
wednesday. lighter easterly flow continues for the remainder of the
week with high pressure north of the lake and the meandering cutoff
low south of the ohio river. this flow and the gradient will keep
water levels high across the western basin. have extended the
lakeshore flood warning into this evening, but forecast data shows
levels hovering near 69 to 74 inches at toledo through
wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flood watch until noon edt today for ohz003-006>009-017>019-
027>029-036-037-047.
lakeshore flood warning until 10 pm edt this evening for
ohz003-007>009.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez142>149.

&&

$$
synopsis...jaszka
near term...jaszka
short term...oudeman
long term...oudeman
aviation...jaszka
marine...oudeman

Links

Since I Met Edward Snowden, I’ve Never Stopped Watching My Back
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/edward-snowden-operation-firstfruits/610573/

https://sawv.org/2019/04/22/the-media-spreads-fear-rage-and-nefarious-ad-trackers.html

https://lists.orbitalfox.eu/archives/gemini/2019/000000.html

http://www.toledoblade.com/local/Coronavirus/2020/05/18/customers-curtice-barbershop-asked-to-contact-health-department/stories/20200518059

http://www.toledoblade.com/local/police-fire/2020/05/18/photo-of-officer-conducting-speed-enforcement-on-i-475-causes-concern/stories/20200518083

http://www.toledoblade.com/local/Coronavirus/2020/05/17/Governor-vows-action-if-establishments-don-t-restrain-crowds/stories/20200517095

http://www.toledoblade.com/news/nation/2020/05/18/Whitmer-Retail-businesses-in-northern-Michigan-can-reopen/stories/20200518077

http://www.toledoblade.com/news/medical/2020/05/18/promedica-received-158-million-in-federal-funds-for-pandemic-response/stories/20200518076

http://www.toledoblade.com/news/nation/2020/05/18/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-early-promise-shares-soar/stories/20200518064

http://www.toledoblade.com/news/nation/2020/05/18/Despite-virus-Michigan-groups-aim-to-keep-summer-tradition/stories/20200518056

http://www.toledoblade.com/news/nation/2020/05/17/1st-tropical-storm-2020-taking-aim-carolina-coast/stories/20200518027

http://www.toledoblade.com/news/nation/2020/05/17/no-spike-in-coronavirus-in-places-reopening-u-s-health-secretary-says/stories/20200517083

http://www.toledoblade.com/a-e/2020/05/17/picture-perfect-port-clinton-native-ed-gabel-illustrator-covers-the-world-in-style/stories/20200513114

http://www.toledoblade.com/opinion/letters-to-the-editor/2020/05/18/dont-redo-summit-street/stories/20200518011

https://nypost.com/2020/05/18/florida-man-who-called-coronavirus-fake-crisis-gets-infected/

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/he-thought-coronavirus-was-fake-crisis-then-he-contracted-it-n1209246

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/18/lockdown-protests-spread-coronavirus-cellphone-data

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/health/coronavirus-vaccine-moderna.html

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/05/19/virtual-draft-illustrated-the-lack-of-coaching-front-office-diversity/