Links and Notes - Sun, May 17, 2020

2:32 p.m.

Cloudy, windy, cool.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
May 17, 2020 1:52 pm EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 58 F
Humidity : 75%
Wind Speed : E 14 mph
Barometer : 29.98 in
Dewpoint: 50 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
May 17, 2020 1:53 pm EDT
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 56 F
Humidity : 80%
Wind Speed : NE 13 mph
Wind Gust 22 mph
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 50 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
May 17, 2020 2:15 pm EDT
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 55 F
Humidity : 90%
Wind Speed : E 9 mph
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 52 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

10:01 a.m.

It's still an overcast day, but temps are comfortable for me. Not cold and not hot. It might be chillier, however, along the lakeshore with the east wind, blowing off Lake Erie.

Lake Erie water temp off Toledo is 53 degrees. That's not much colder than our current air temp. But I swear that when I'm along the lakeshore in the late winter and early spring with the wind blowing off the lake, the air feels colder than the same temp occurring elsewhere. Maybe it's the dampness of the air coming off the lake.

When the air temp is 40 degrees and the lake temp is about the same, and the wind blows off the lake, and the wind chill is only in the low 30s, to me, it feels like the temp is 20 degrees or colder. I bundle up a lot more along the lakeshore than I do when walking our neighborhood with the same 40 degree air temp, brisk winds, and 30 degree wind chill.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
May 17, 2020 9:52 am EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 58 F
Humidity : 69%
Wind Speed : NE 6 mph
Barometer : 30.01 in
Dewpoint: 48 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
May 17, 2020 9:53 am EDT
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 58 F
Humidity : 75%
Wind Speed : ENE 12 mph
Barometer : 30.02 in
Dewpoint: 50 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
May 17, 2020 9:55 am EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 54 F
Humidity : 80%
Wind Speed : E 9 mph
Wind Gust 17 mph
Barometer : 30.02 in
Dewpoint: 48 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles


nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
958 am edt sun may 17 2020

for waters within five nautical miles of shore

waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

lez142-143-172015-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
958 am edt sun may 17 2020

...small craft advisory in effect through this evening...

.this afternoon...east winds 15 to 20 knots. a chance of showers,
then a chance of showers and thunderstorms late. waves 2 to
4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. waves occasionally around 6 feet.
.tonight...east winds 15 to 20 knots. a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a slight
chance of thunderstorms overnight. waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to
2 to 4 feet. waves occasionally around 6 feet.
.monday...east winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to
15 knots. showers. waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
.monday night...east winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to
15 knots. showers. waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for tuesday through thursday.

the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees, off cleveland 50
degrees, and off erie 50 degrees.

$$

lez146-172015-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
958 am edt sun may 17 2020

.this afternoon...east winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast
15 to 20 knots. a chance of showers, then showers and
thunderstorms likely late. waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to
4 feet.
.tonight...east winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to
15 knots. showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a
chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
overnight. waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
.monday...east winds around 10 knots. showers likely. waves 1 to
3 feet.
.monday night...east winds 10 to 15 knots. showers likely. waves
1 to 3 feet.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for tuesday through thursday.

the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees, off cleveland 50
degrees, and off erie 50 degrees.

$$

lez144-145-172015-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
958 am edt sun may 17 2020

...small craft advisory in effect through this evening...

.this afternoon...east winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast. a
chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely late.
waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. waves occasionally
around 6 feet.
.tonight...east winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to
15 knots. showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a
chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
overnight. waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. waves
occasionally around 6 feet.
.monday...east winds 5 to 15 knots. showers likely in the
morning, then showers in the afternoon. waves 1 to 3 feet.
.monday night...east winds 10 to 15 knots. showers. waves 1 to
3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for tuesday through thursday.

the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees, off cleveland 50
degrees, and off erie 50 degrees.

$$

lez147>149-172015-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-
the lake oh-lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-
lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
958 am edt sun may 17 2020

.this afternoon...east winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to
20 knots. a chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms
likely late. waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
.tonight...east winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to
15 knots. showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a
chance of showers overnight. waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to
3 feet.
.monday...east winds 10 to 15 knots. a chance of showers. waves
1 to 3 feet.
.monday night...east winds 10 to 15 knots. a chance of showers.
waves 1 to 3 feet.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for tuesday through thursday.

the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees, off cleveland 50
degrees, and off erie 50 degrees.

9:52 a.m.

About 10 minutes ago, I finished walking Barney for 40 minutes. During the walk, I heard:

That's probably the most warbler song, three species, that I have observed around our home. I think at the end of April, I heard a few warbler species.

But the LACK of migrating bird song from all neo-tropical species around our home and in our neighborhood during the month of May has been stunning, eerie, and bizarre. It might have something to do with this spring's prevailing weather patterns. And it might have something to do with the oak tree flower development being at least two weeks behind schedule.

I had planned to go birdwatching along the lake shore. I was going to leave at about 9:00 a.m. without walking Barney, but since I knew that Barney would not get walked tomorrow, and it will be raining this afternoon, I decided to stroll the old guy before going birdwatching. I walked Barney yesterday evening, during the 8pm hour. Tomorrow will be rainy, and I will be at CP and Brad's, watching the kids.

During my walk this morning with Barney, CP called and said that she was bringing the kids to our house for a while. That kiboshed my lakeshore birdwatching, but we may go to nearby Ottawa Park, which is a Toledo city park, and go birdwatching. We have a pair of simple, inexpensive children's binoculars for Gabbie. That could be fun, provided the rain holds off.

7:59 a.m.

It's a cool, overcast morning. Breezy at times.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
May 17, 2020 7:52 am EDT
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 57 F
Humidity : 69%
Wind Speed : E 15 mph
Wind Gust 24 mph
Barometer : 30.01 in
Dewpoint: 47 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
May 17, 2020 7:53 am EDT
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 55 F
Humidity : 80%
Wind Speed : ENE 12 mph
Wind Gust 21 mph
Barometer : 30.03 in
Dewpoint: 49 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
May 17, 2020 7:56 am EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 53 F
Humidity : 83%
Wind Speed : ENE 9 mph
Wind Gust 16 mph
Barometer : 30.03 in
Dewpoint: 48 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles


Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: May 17, 2020 6:22 am

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a chance of showers between 1pm and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 66. East wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 9pm and 11pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 56. East wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday: Showers. High near 68. Southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Monday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 53. East wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Tuesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. East wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 62.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 68.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
715 am edt sun may 17 2020

.synopsis...
low pressure across iowa will slowly drift toward northern
indiana over the next 24 hours. this will bring a warm front
north to northern ohio/northwest pa today where it will remain
through monday. the low will drift across ohio and cross the
appalachians monday into tuesday where it will remain for much
of the week as it dissipates.

&&

.near term /through monday/...
no changes with this early morning update. showers are
developing and moving northeast as expected. previous discussion
follows.

a rather complex forecast for the early part of this week
starting with today and the chances for strong to severe storms
and potentially heavy rainfall.

low pressure early this morning was centered across iowa with a
warm front that extended across il/in and to northern kentucky.
overrunning was beginning to generate showers early this morning
across central oh. expect this to shift northward across the
area this morning while they remain scattered in nature. the
latest trends are for the low to move more slowly and reach
northern in possibly by this time tomorrow morning. this and the
time of year with a cool lake will impact how far north the warm
front will get. believe it will get hung up along the south
shore of the lake today into tonight. while ample cloud cover
will limit instability to some degree, with dewpoints of 60
surging into central oh and temperatures expected to warm well
into the 70s, contrasted with the established cooler northeast
flow off of the lake, we should only strengthen the
baroclinic zone across northern oh/nw pa and allow for enough
cape and focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. cams
are suggesting that storms may initiate across the central
highlands and lift north across northern oh for the mid/late
afternoon. with the conditional nature, area remains with a
marginal risk of severe storms with spc, with a wind and a small
tornado risk along this boundary. with high pws concern also
lies with heavy rain across an area that recently experienced
rain and flooding. the threat window looks to be between 2pm and
8pm today. with a narrow window and confidence not high enough
in impacts greater than localized flooding, have not issued a
flood watch just yet. this may be a case of just being on the
lookout for any advisories or warnings. highs today will vary
from the upper 60s near toledo and port clinton with flow off
the lake to around 80 near marion and mansfield. the immediate
east lakeshore will also likely remain in the upper 60s without
a good southerly flow to boost temperatures. highs in the lower
70s across far eastern oh and near 70 for pa.

with the slower system movement indicated by the latest model
guidance and as could reasonably be expected with a cutoff low,
the threat for heaviest precipitation has shifted away from
sunday night and more toward monday/monday night. for tonight
widespread showers will move across the western half of the area
overnight with scattered showers across the east half. it will
be mild and rather humid tonight.

monday the axis of heavier rain will be more centered across our
area, but still uncertainty exists in exactly where and is
dependent upon the track of the upper low. again latest trends
are more fixated on oh for monday and in particular western oh
(wpc slight risk of excessive rainfall). still not enough
confidence to go with any flood watch, but this entire period
(today through monday) needs careful watching and awareness.
will continue to highlight in the hazardous weather outlook.
seasonable temperatures monday albeit a bit cooler than sunday
for most.

see the marine section below for lakeshore flooding concerns.

&&

.short term /monday night through wednesday night/...
an occluding surface low is expected to meander over northern
indiana and vicinity monday night as its parent upper low drifts
from central illinois toward the lower ohio valley while
continuing to cut-off from the polar front jet stream. this low
pressure systems warm conveyor belt will undergo isentropic
lift over our area while simultaneously drawing very moist and
unstable air northward from the gulf of mexico. multiple bands
of training showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany
the warm conveyor belt and may generate flash flooding over our
cwa. at this point, the greater potential for excessive rainfall
and flash flooding appears to generally be west of i-71. lows
should mainly reach the 50
s.

on tuesday, the aforementioned low should essentially become
vertically-stacked and drift toward central ky. this should
allow the warm conveyor belt/abundant moisture plume to continue
undergoing isentropic lift over our cwa and generate additional
showers and thunderstorms. thus, the flash flood threat may
persist, especially if and where showers and storms manage to
train (i.e. follow the same path). high temperatures should only
reach the upper 50s to lower 60s due, in part, to abundant
cloud cover and our region residing in the cool sector of the
occluded low.

shower and thunderstorm chances should decrease considerably
tuesday night through wednesday and be followed by fair weather
region-wide wednesday night as the vertically-stacked low drifts
toward middle tennessee. simultaneously, surface high pressure
should build gradually from eastern canada as high pressure
aloft becomes established over our cwa. low temperatures in the
mid 40s to lower 50s and highs in the low to mid 60`s are
expected.

&&

.long term /thursday through saturday/...
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should return
thursday and friday as the aforementioned vertically-stacked low
may drift toward the mid ohio valley. a slight warming trend is
expected, including highs in the 60s or 70s. isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible friday night
and saturday as the vertically-stacked low potentially moves to
the mid-atlantic region and high pressure at the surface and
aloft builds over our area from the west. however, multiple and
subtle shortwave disturbances may ripple generally eastward
through the ridge aloft. saturday should be warmer, with morning
lows in the mid to upper 50s and afternoon highs primarily in
the 70
s to lower 80s. however, highs may only reach the upper
60
s along portions of the lake erie shore due to potential lake
breeze development.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
little change to the aviation forecast. still a rather complex
system that will be with us for a few days. low pressure will
be just southwest of chicago by midday today with a warm front
extending eastward across northern oh/nw pa. as lift with this
approaching warm front increases, a few showers and isolated
mvfr conditions possible through the morning. showers will
increase in coverage as we head toward early afternoon with
that front. the position of that warm front will impact wind
direction with easterly flow continuing north of the front and
south- southeast winds on the warm side of the front. could also
see some tsra break out in peak heating of the day. again
confidence is low on exact placement. could very well have brief
ifr conditions surrounding those thunderstorms. placed tempos at
peak heating of the day. after sunset, focus shifts to the
western terminals as an area of heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms with lower cigs/vsby slowly approach western oh.
greater impacts may hold off until after 09z mon.

outlook...an extended period of non-vfr through tuesday with
areas of non-vfr still possible into wednesday or thursday.

&&

.marine...
northeasterly to easterly winds are expected over lake erie
today through thursday as high pressure drifts from james bay to
the canadian maritimes. this high will interact with a low that
will near northwest ohio from the west by daybreak monday. the
low is then expected to drift toward the tennessee valley
through thursday. the northeasterly to easterly winds will trend
10 to 20 knots through most of the period, but are expected to
be as strong as about 25 knots this afternoon and early evening.
waves will likely trend 2 to 4 feet through thursday. however,
waves as large as 5 to 6 feet are expected today in the open
waters and in nearshore waters from maumee bay to avon point,
oh. accordingly, a small craft advisory has been issued for
those nearshore waters from 12 pm to 10 pm edt today.

a lakeshore flood warning remains in effect until 10 pm edt
this evening from lucas county to erie county, oh. water levels
are expected to peak around daybreak today and again early this
evening. additional periods of lakeshore flooding are possible
along the western basin as the lake water sloshes back and
forth. at this point, the next best window for lakeshore
flooding appears to be tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...lakeshore flood warning until 10 pm edt this evening for
ohz003-007>009.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from noon today to 10 pm edt this evening
for lez142>145.

&&

$$
synopsis...oudeman
near term...oudeman
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...oudeman
marine...jaszka


lakeshore hazard message
national weather service cleveland oh
405 am edt sun may 17 2020

ohz003-007>009-171615-
/o.con.kcle.ls.w.0007.000000t0000z-200518t0200z/
lucas-ottawa-sandusky-erie-
405 am edt sun may 17 2020

...lakeshore flood warning remains in effect until 10 pm edt this
evening...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

if travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
520 am edt sun may 17 2020

ohz003-007>009-181100-
lucas-ottawa-sandusky-erie-
520 am edt sun may 17 2020

...lakeshore flood warning in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

lakeshore flood warning.

strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. heavy downpours may lead to localized flooding.

.days two through seven...monday through saturday.

there is the potential for significant rainfall monday and monday
night which would lead to rises on area creeks and streams and
increase the risk for flooding.

lakeshore flooding may result from high lake levels on tuesday.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.