Links and Notes - Mon, May 11, 2020

5:12 p.m.

It has been a mostly cloudy to overcast day with occasional bouts of sunshine. Light wind. Cool temps.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
May 11, 2020 4:52 pm EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 46 F
Humidity : 51%
Wind Speed : WNW 13 mph
Barometer : 30.13 in
Dewpoint: 29 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 40 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
May 11, 2020 4:53 pm EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 47 F
Humidity : 54%
Wind Speed : WNW 16 mph
Barometer : 30.13 in
Dewpoint: 31 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 41 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
May 11, 2020 4:55 pm EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 45 F
Humidity : 60%
Wind Speed : W 10 mph
Barometer : 30.13 in
Dewpoint: 32 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 40 F

9:57 a.m.

This morning's weather was overcast and cold. I never saw snow fall, but Toledo Express Airport reported light snow at 1:52 a.m. today.

When Deb and I were birdwatching along the lakeshore yesterday afternoon, we waited out a thunderstorm that hit the lakeshore area at ONWR shortly after 4pm. Small, pea-sized hail fell for short while. Heavy rain and winds at 30-plus mph occurred. It was already windy before the storm hit. Wind gusts in the open area were probably 30 to 40 mph. The clouds preceding the storm were the main attraction.


Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
May 11, 2020 9:52 am EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 39 F
Humidity : 62%
Wind Speed : NW 15 mph
Barometer : 30.11 in
Dewpoint: 27 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 31 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
May 11, 2020 9:53 am EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 39 F
Humidity : 70%
Wind Speed : W 14 mph
Barometer : 30.11 in
Dewpoint: 30 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 31 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
May 11, 2020 9:55 am EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 38 F
Humidity : 70%
Wind Speed : WNW 9 mph
Barometer : 30.10 in
Dewpoint: 29 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 32 F


Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: May 11, 2020 4:12 am

Today: Cloudy, with a high near 49. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph.

Tonight: Areas of frost after 5am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 35. West wind 6 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Areas of frost before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 58. Light and variable wind becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 35. Northwest wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light north after midnight.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 61. Light east wind.

Wednesday Night: Showers likely after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 9am, then showers likely between 9am and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. High near 74. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


urgent - weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
350 am edt mon may 11 2020

ohz003-006>011-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-paz002-003-
111600-
/o.new.kcle.fr.y.0003.200512t0600z-200512t1300z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-southern erie-
including the cities of toledo, bowling green, port clinton,
fremont, sandusky, lorain, cleveland, chardon, jefferson,
findlay, tiffin, norwalk, medina, akron, ravenna, warren,
upper sandusky, bucyrus, mansfield, ashland, wooster, canton,
youngstown, marion, mount gilead, millersburg, mount vernon,
edinboro, and meadville
350 am edt mon may 11 2020

...frost advisory in effect from 2 am to 9 am edt tuesday...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

for more information from the national weather service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle


http://sawv.org/2020/05/11/toledo-7day-forecast-last-update-may-11-2020-4-12-am.html

Toledo 7-day forecast Last Update: May 11, 2020 4:12 am

Today: A slight chance of snow showers before 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Areas of frost after 5am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 35. West wind 6 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Areas of frost before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 58. Light and variable wind becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 35. Northwest wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light north after midnight.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 61. Light east wind.

Wednesday Night: Showers likely after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 9am, then showers likely between 9am and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. High near 74. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
May 11, 2020 2:52 am EDT
Weather : Light Rain
Temperature : 39 F
Humidity : 82%
Wind Speed : NW 12 mph
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 34 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 32 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
May 11, 2020 2:53 am EDT
Weather : Light Rain
Temperature : 36 F
Humidity : 92%
Wind Speed : NW 14 mph
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 34 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 27 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
May 11, 2020 2:55 am EDT
Weather : Light Rain
Temperature : 36 F
Humidity : 92%
Wind Speed : NW 7 mph
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 34 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 30 F

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
May 11, 2020 5:52 am EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 39 F
Humidity : 73%
Wind Speed : WNW 9 mph
Barometer : 30.03 in
Dewpoint: 31 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 33 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
May 11, 2020 5:53 am EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 38 F
Humidity : 79%
Wind Speed : WNW 12 mph
Barometer : 30.04 in
Dewpoint: 32 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 30 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
May 11, 2020 5:55 am EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 36 F
Humidity : 85%
Wind Speed : NW 8 mph
Barometer : 30.03 in
Dewpoint: 32 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 30 F

second time that it snowed in the cleveland area in the past three days.

Cleveland Hopkins International Airport (KCLE)
Light Snow Fog/Mist 33 F
Humidity 96%
Wind Speed W 7 mph
Barometer 29.99 in (1015.8 mb)
Dewpoint 32 F (0 C)
Visibility 2.00 mi
Wind Chill 27 F (-3 C)
Last update 11 May 5:51 am EDT

TOL reported light snow at 1:52 a.m. today. I went to bed shortly before that. I saw no snow around our home.

I also got up around 3:30 a.m. to check, and again, no snow at that time. We had light rain around 1:30 a.m. and no precip around 3:30 a.m. No precip now either at 6:12 a.m.

TOL: 01:52 a.m.
NW 10 mph
Light Snow Fog/Mist
36 F



Yesterday afternoon:

Severe Weather Statement issued May 10 at 3:59PM EDT until May 10 at 4:15PM EDT by NWS Cleveland

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR OTTAWA...NORTHWESTERN SENECA...WESTERN SANDUSKY...WOOD...NORTHERN
HANCOCK AND LUCAS COUNTIES...
At 358 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Deerfield to near Fostoria, moving northeast at
35 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.
Locations impacted include...
Toledo, Bowling Green, Tiffin, Fremont, Fostoria, Perrysburg, Oregon,
Sylvania, Rossford, Waterville, Northwood, Whitehouse, North
Baltimore, Oak Harbor, Gibsonburg, Genoa, Woodville, Holland, Weston
and Elmore.
HAIL....75IN
WIND...60MPH

12:18 a.m.

It's now snowing in the Detroit area. Radar allegedly shows snow near Lucas County.

Coleman A Young Municipal Airport (KDET)
Light Snow Fog/Mist 35 F

Monroe, Custer Airport (KTTF)
Light Rain 38 F

Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport (KARB)
Light Rain Fog/Mist 36 F

It's warmer here in the immediate Toledo area.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
May 10, 2020 11:52 pm EDT
Weather : Light Rain
Temperature : 43 F
Humidity : 82%
Wind Speed : NNW 13 mph
Barometer : 29.92 in
Dewpoint: 38 F
Visibility : 3.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 36 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
May 10, 2020 11:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 45 F
Humidity : 89%
Wind Speed : W 12 mph
Barometer : 29.91 in
Dewpoint: 42 F
Visibility : 4.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 39 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
May 10, 2020 11:55 pm EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 40 F
Humidity : 92%
Wind Speed : N 12 mph
Wind Gust 16 mph
Barometer : 29.93 in
Dewpoint: 38 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 33 F


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
635 am edt mon may 11 2020

.synopsis...
low pressure centered over eastern lake erie will move
northeast across new england today as a trailing cold front
drifts slowly south across the area. tonight high pressure in
the central plains will move east across the lower ohio valley.
the high will continue to affect the area through wednesday. a
warm front will lift into the area wednesday night and early
thursday. a cold front will move through on friday.

&&

.near term /through tuesday/...
update...no changes.

original...surface low over eastern lake erie early this
morning with wrap around rain wrapping around into northern
ohio. rain has been mixing with a little snow as well across
northwest ohio. expect as colder air moves in through the early
morning hours, more snow will be seen mixing in. by morning
850mb temps will be around -6c so most precip for a few hours
could be snow. no accums expected however with surface/pavement
temps above freezing. for the day, have increased clouds from
the previous grids as satellite shows a solid deck into mn.
expect rain/snow showers to persist mainly east into afternoon.
behind the low, flow will be off the lake as well and with
sufficient moisture in place, expect lake enhancement through
the afternoon as well. tonight brought in clearing from the
northwest. clearing will likely take until after midnight east.
also, models show another swath of moisture drifting in from the
northwest after midnight. while temps are forecast to drop to
around freezing, any cloud cover would limit frost and also
possibly keep temps from dropping to/below 32. for now will
issue a frost advisory and allow the day crew another look at
12z guidance. tuesday, high pressure will fill the ohio valley.
expecting partly cloudy skies. highs today in the 40s. highs
tuesday in the 50s.

&&

.short term /tuesday night through thursday night/...
the period starts tuesday night will high pressure drifting
east across the region. mostly clear skies and light winds will
promote good radiational cooling with frost expected as temps
radiate down to the upper 20s/mid 30s across the area. this will
likely necessitate another frost/freeze headline. a moderating
trend begins wednesday as the ridge shifts east of the area and
return flow ramps up into the region through thursday night. a
warm front will lift north across the area late wedneday night
into thursday, settling across or just north of the area as low
pressure develops and tracks across the central great lakes. a
trailing cold front will settle south towards the area thursday
night into friday morning. precip chances increase thursday with
the warm front, and continue through thursday night with the
passage of the low to the north and the approaching cold front.
highs wednesday will be in the mid 50s northeast to the low 60s
elsewhere. highs thursday will jump into the mid 60s northeast
to the low/mid 70s elsewhere behind the warm front.

&&

.long term /friday through sunday/...
models in fair agreement on a more active pattern continuing
through the weekend. the aforementioned cold front will push
south across the area friday, and will stall somewhere across
the region friday night. a wave of low pressure will push
northeast along the front and through the great lakes saturday
and saturday night. a mid level shortwave will track central
plains into the great lakes saturday night into sunday. hard to
delineate any dry periods over the weekend, so pretty much have
continuous chance/likely pops with the low pressure passages and
the frontal boundary across the region. highs will generally be
in the low to mid 70s during the period. temps could be a bit
cooler saturday if the front settle farther south towards the
ohio valley.

&&

.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
low pressure over eastern lake erie will continue northeast
reaching new england by 18z. a cold front extending wsw from
the low into nern ohio will continue southeast of the area by
late morning. expect widespread mvfr/ifr conditions across the
area should begin to lift through the late morning and early
afternoon before lifting to vfr mid/late afternoon as the low
pulls east and drier air begins to move in from the northwest.
mainly vfr expected tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible with widespread rain showers
wednesday night through friday. scattered thunderstorms possible
on thursday and friday.

&&

.marine...
no changes to the current headlines as a low level trough moves
south away from the lake and north northwest flow continue to
ramp up from west to east. winds subside from west to east
through the day and evening, and it`s likely that a portion of
the central basin small craft advisory will be able to be
cancelled earlier than the current 10 pm expiration time. winds
and waves will subside tonight, but remain out of the northwest
at 10-15 kts. a weak trough/front will push across the lake
tomorrow, with winds becoming more westerly until tuesday night,
when winds become light and veer northerly to northeast as high
pressure moves over the region through wednesday night.
easterly flow ramps up wednesday night, becoming southerly as a
warm front lift north across the lake through thursday. the
front will move back south of the lake friday as a cold front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt tuesday for ohz003-
006>011-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt tuesday for paz002-003.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez144>149.
small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lez142-
143.

&&

$$
synopsis...tk
near term...tk
short term...greenawalt
long term...greenawalt
aviation...tk
marine...greenawalt


area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
647 am edt mon may 11 2020

.synopsis...
issued at 433 am edt mon may 11 2020

cloudy and cold conditions will prevail through the day. skies are
expected to clear out tonight with areas of frost likely.
increasing temperatures, shower and thunderstorm chances are in
store after wednesday.

&&

.short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 433 am edt mon may 11 2020

a downright chilly day (by may standards) will be in store with
plenty of clouds around for the better part of the day.
temperatures will struggle to climb into the 40s across the area
as strong caa remains entrenched. we will approach record cold
high temperatures (43 at both sbn and fwa). a few of the hi res
models bring a weak disturbance into the area late this morning
into the afternoon hours that could trigger some light rain
showers. thinking low levels may be just dry enough to preclude
anything from reaching the ground, so will hold off on raising
pops and punt to day shift to monitor.

bigger challenge is handling of frost/freeze potential tonight.
overnight lows still looks to drop into the lower to middle 30s
with winds diminishing and becoming light. the challenge comes
with how much cloud cover may still linger into the evening and
overnight hours with some models showing low level moisture
lingering. if this occurs, then frost potential will be limited to
maybe patchy at worst, but if we do clear out, many spots will
see at least a small window for frost before quick rebound
around/after 12z tues. forecasted lows would warrant freeze
warning in e/ne parts of the forecast area. however, given the
above concerns and fact that time frame with temps at freezing or
lower may only end up an hour or so, will go with frost advisory
for all but far western counties late tonight. lows in the mid to
maybe upper 30s seem more plausible in the far west areas and
frost may be more patchy in nature. so held off on headlines there
(which blends with lot and ind).

&&

.long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 433 am edt mon may 11 2020

upper level trough will start to pull away and allow for high
temps to climb a good 5 to 10 degrees for high today (reaching
into the middle to upper 50s). frost potential does exist again
tuesday night but most likely any threat confined to ne in/nw ohio
into far s central lower mi.

rather dramatic upper level height increases take shape starting
weds with 570 dm or higher edging in with stg waa response
expected to start during the day (850 mb temps climb to +4 to +6 c
by 00z thu) and even warmer temps weds night into thursday ahead
of a stronger disturbance that will begin to set the stage for a
potentially wet period. models have generally backed off on onset
of most shower/storm activity until 6z thu or after. as a result,
pops have been removed on weds and slowed down some weds eve
before ramp up to likely and cat pops. generally qpf should be on
the order of 0.25-0.5 inches weds night with additional qpf
thursday. placement of best overrunning and degree of convection
(enhancing qpf locally) will likely take amounts over an inch in
some locations. given the lack of heavier rain in past weeks,
local rivers and the ground in general can easily handle this
amount. while additional rainfall chances exist through the
remainder of the period, the exact location of where each of these
chances lines up and heaviest qpf potential remains in question
with the boundary likely to modulate north and south with each
wave. overall qpf amounts by sat could reach 2 to 3 inches in some
spots. will have to wait and see.

these same frontal position concerns will also likely raise havoc
with our warm up with areas south of the front seeing temps well
into the 70s and north in the clouds and rain 60s. grids reflect
this despite some showing very warm temps (near 80 by the
weekend??). suffice to say, the cold will be gone, just how close
we get to normal (around 70).

&&

.aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z tuesday morning)
issued at 645 am edt mon may 11 2020

another reinforcing short wave trough dropping across the southern
great lakes this morning has aided in a weak lake response with
some mvfr stratocu of 2-3k feet along with some pockets of
sprinkles/flurries. should see potential for mvfr cigs diminish by
mid to late morning with some increase in mixed layer depths.
diurnal mixing should allow for northwest gusts into the 15 to 20
knot range today, with gusts dropping off sharply around 22z-23z.
expecting vfr conditions to hold remainder of the forecast valid
period with some patchy vfr low clouds possible tonight as broad
warm advection forcing spreads across southern great lakes.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt tuesday for inz004>009-
014>018-022>027-032>034.

mi...frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt tuesday for miz077>081.

oh...frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt tuesday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.

lm...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

synopsis...fisher
short term...fisher
long term...fisher
aviation...marsili

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