Links and Notes - Sun, May 10, 2020

10:50 p.m.

10 years ago this evening, my 18-year-old cat named Comet passed away. It was a sunny day. He enjoyed a little outdoor time around midday. He was an indoor cat, but I let him go outside at times as a treat. He did not roam the neighborhood. He never left our yard. He only went a few yards from the backdoor, and I was always outside with him. He liked to lounge in the sunshine. He liked to rub his face on the catmint that grows in our backyard. This spring, our catmint started blooming about three weeks ago. I call it the Comet plant.

It's hard to believe that 10 years have passed since Comet died. He was my first pet as an adult. He was a hall-of-fame friend.

Deb and I birdwatched this afternoon at Metzger Marsh, Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge, and Howard Marsh. It was a decent day of birdwatching, but for May 10th, it seems a lot of birds have not migrated through yet. Based upon the number of Blue-grey Gnatcathers last weekend, and the number of Yellow-rumped Warblers, Nashville Warblers, and Ruby-crowned Kinglets present today, it seems like the migration is 5 to 7 days behind schedule.

It seems that our best chance for snow will occur after 5:00 a.m. tomorrow and before 9:00 a.m. I have never seen snow in May. Yesterday, Mom saw snow fall in my hometown, located in southeast Ohio. It was lake effect snow from Lake Erie that reached that part of the state due to the stiff northwest winds, air temps around 30 to 34 degrees, and Lake Erie water temp off Cleveland around 50 degrees.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
May 10, 2020 9:52 pm EDT
Weather : Light Rain
Temperature : 47 F
Humidity : 76%
Wind Speed : WSW 16 mph
Barometer : 29.90 in
Dewpoint: 40 F
Visibility : 8.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 41 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
May 10, 2020 9:53 pm EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 48 F
Humidity : 74%
Wind Speed : WSW 14 mph
Barometer : 29.90 in
Dewpoint: 40 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 42 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
May 10, 2020 10:35 pm EDT
Weather : Light Rain
Temperature : 45 F
Humidity : 89%
Wind Speed : WSW 7 mph
Barometer : 29.90 in
Dewpoint: 42 F
Visibility : 7.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 41 F

Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: May 10, 2020 9:37 pm

Tonight: Rain showers likely before 5am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Northwest wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Northwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Monday Night: Areas of frost after 5am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northwest wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light west after midnight.

Tuesday: Widespread frost before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Light southwest wind becoming west 9 to 14 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light north after midnight.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.

Wednesday Night: Showers likely after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday: Showers. High near 72. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Thursday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday: Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
954 pm edt sun may 10 2020

low pressure will track east across the eastern great lakes
tonight, bringing a cold front through the area. high
pressure will build across the region monday and will remain
over the area through wednesday night. a warm front will lift
into the area thursday and remain across the region through the
end of the week.


.near term /through monday/...
freshened hourly temperatures through 2 am edt monday to better
match observed trends. this also warranted minor changes to
hourly dew points and apparent temperatures. wind gusts were
also freshened through early monday evening to better match
observed trends and latest available model guidance. the rest of
the near-term forecast remains valid.

previous discussion...
a robust mid level shortwave trough is currently moving from
the upper midwest into the southern great lakes region this
afternoon. a broken line of strong to severe convection has
developed across the upper ohio valley into southern michigan
this afternoon. there have already been reports of wind gusts up
to 70 to 75 reported back in indiana this afternoon. we do not
see any change in the environment across western and northern
ohio as this line moves in later this afternoon. the main threat
will continue to be isolated damaging wind gusts 60 to 70 mph.
widespread 40 to 50 mph wind gusts will accompany the line of
storms into early this evening. the isolated severe threat will
decrease by 9 pm this evening as the line approaches the ohio
and pennsylvania state line.

an area of low pressure will move eastward across
southern michigan towards southwestern new york by early monday
morning. a cold front will move through the area later this
evening and overnight with colder air returning on the backside
of the exiting low pressure system. while surface temperatures
will remain safely above freezing, enough cold aloft may mix or
change rain showers to snow showers by morning for the primary
and secondary snowbelt early monday morning. no accumulations or
impacts are expected. showers will gradually exiting northeast
ohio and northwest pennsylvania by early afternoon. drier air
and high pressure will build in by late in the day and evening.
clouds will slowly decrease from west to east during the late
afternoon and evening. another night of freezing temperatures
looks likely for areas away from the lakeshore monday night.


.short term /monday night through wednesday night/...
model guidance show high pressure building in from the west tuesday
through wednesday night with rather benign weather setting up during
this time period. cooler than average temperatures still expected
during this time period with temperatures about 10-15 degrees below
average on tuesday and about 5 degrees below average on wednesday.
clear skies and light winds will result in a night of good
radiational cooling tuesday night, which could produce some frost
tuesday night and wednesday morning.


.long term /thursday through sunday/...
big pattern change expected beginning thursday with a change to a
warmer and wetter pattern. high temperatures in the 70s with shower
and thunderstorm chances each day is expected through the extended


.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
a consolidating surface low over far-southwest on will move
eastward to near far-southern me by 00z/tue. the primary cold
front extended generally west-southwestward from the low,
through areas just east and south of kdtw to northwestern in at
00z/mon. this cold front will sweep southeastward and should
cross our area between about 01z and 10z/mon. breezy surface
winds shift from southwesterly or westerly to northwesterly with
the passage of this front. northwesterly surface winds then
persist through 00z/tue as a high pressure ridge builds
gradually from the northern and central great plains. these
winds should gust as high as 20 to 30 knots, especially
overnight tonight through 00z/tue.

isolated to scattered showers and pockets of mvfr visibility
remain possible before gradually ending from west to east
through monday morning. the exception will be areas southeast of
lake erie. here, scattered to numerous lake enhanced and then
lake effect rain and/or snow showers are expected to develop
overnight tonight and then continue through monday morning
before ending in the afternoon. mvfr to ifr visibility may
accompany these showers.

ceilings are expected to trend vfr to mvfr ahead of the
aforementioned cold front, with ceilings then trending mvfr to
ifr behind the front. ceilings should then gradually improve to
mvfr or vfr after daybreak on monday, with this improvement
happening generally from west to east.

outlook...non-vfr possible with widespread rain showers wednesday
night through friday. scattered thunderstorms possible on
thursday and friday.


south to southwest winds hovering just below 20 knots (with a few
marine observations around 20 knots). will hold off on small craft
advisory as winds are fairly marginal at this point.

low pressure will move east across lake erie tonight. northwest
winds greater than 20 knots will develop on lake erie behind this
low, resulting in the need for a small craft advisory tonight.
strongest winds expected overnight monday but northwest winds remain
around 15-20 knots during the day monday. generally weaker winds
ensue monday night through at least wednesday night when high
pressure moves east across the area. a warm front lifting north
across lake erie will induce southerly winds on thursday.


.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
marine...small craft advisory from 1 am to 10 pm edt monday for
small craft advisory from 1 am to 11 am edt monday for lez142-


near term...griffin/jaszka
short term...saunders
long term...saunders


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