Links and Notes - Fri, May 8, 2020

11:21 p.m.

We rarely experience a day in May that gets as cold as today. Holy moly. I visited CP to watch the kids while CP studied for school. Gabbie and I played outside at different times. Temps were in the mid-40s. The wind was strong from the north. Wind chills felt much colder than the upper-30s. The sun was in and out of the clouds. I saw what appeared to be virga in some of the clouds, and since it appeared as white, I assumed that it was snow, but it must have evaporated before reaching the ground, since I never saw a snowflake.

I have never seen snow fall in the month of May. The current radar shows scattered, alleged light snow over parts of northwest Ohio and north central Ohio and southeast Michigan. The three local airports do not report any snow flurries. TOL has not reported snow today for any hour.

The unseasonably cold weather that's forecast for the next few days will be hard on the insect-eating birds. At least it will be mostly dry. A chance of showers, however, is forecast on Sunday and Sunday night, but not a lot of rain is forecast. Sunday night might be another chance for snow flurries to occur in the Toledo area.

If it's cold and wet for a prolonged period, then that can be deadly for some bird species, such as the Purple Martin. Yesterday's temps were in the 60s. We might not see 60-degree temps again until Wednesday. Monday could be another cold day with temps only in the 40s, which is quite chilly for May 11.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
May 8, 2020 10:52 pm EDT
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 39 F
Humidity : 32%
Wind Speed : N 12 mph
Barometer : 30.06 in
Dewpoint: 12 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 32 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
May 8, 2020 10:53 pm EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 38 F
Humidity : 34%
Wind Speed : NNW 15 mph
Barometer : 30.07 in
Dewpoint: 12 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 29 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
May 8, 2020 10:55 pm EDT
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 35 F
Humidity : 40%
Wind Speed : NNW 8 mph
Barometer : 30.07 in
Dewpoint: 13 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 28 F


Date and Time: 11:15 PM, Fri, May 08, 2020
Summary: Clear
Air Temp: 37 F
Dew Point: 14 F
Humidity: 38 %
Wind Direction: North-Northwest
Wind Speed: 10 mph
Wind Gust: 20 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 30 F
Pressure: 30.11 inches
UV Index: Low : 0.0
Cloud Cover: 25 % : Mostly Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 29 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: East-Southeast


Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: May 8, 2020 9:54 pm

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 28. Northwest wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 51. West wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. Southwest wind 8 to 14 mph.

Sunday: Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Southwest wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: Showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. West wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday: A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: Widespread frost after 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 32.

Tuesday: Widespread frost before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 56.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 50%.


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
400 pm edt fri may 8 2020

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-092000-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
400 pm edt fri may 8 2020

...freeze warning in effect from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt
saturday...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio, northeast
ohio, northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...this afternoon and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

freeze warning.

.days two through seven...saturday through thursday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

freeze warning.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.


urgent - weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
940 pm edt fri may 8 2020

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-091200-
/o.ext.kcle.fz.w.0004.200509t0140z-200509t1500z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
southern erie-
including the cities of toledo, bowling green, port clinton,
fremont, sandusky, lorain, cleveland, mentor, chardon, jefferson,
findlay, tiffin, norwalk, medina, akron, ravenna, warren,
upper sandusky, bucyrus, mansfield, ashland, wooster, canton,
youngstown, marion, mount gilead, millersburg, mount vernon,
ashtabula, erie, edinboro, and meadville
940 pm edt fri may 8 2020

...freeze warning now in effect until 11 am edt saturday...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. to prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. those who have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

for more information from the national weather service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
957 pm edt fri may 8 2020

.synopsis...
an upper trough will swing east from the great lakes tonight
into new england saturday. a large area of high pressure will
build east across the tennessee and ohio valleys saturday, and
off the mid atlantic coast sunday. low pressure will move east
across the southern great lakes late sunday through early
monday. high pressure returns through midweek.

&&

.near term /through saturday night/...
update...
latest surface observations indicate some locations have
already cooled to 32f or slightly colder in interior northeast
oh and northwest pa. thus, decided to adjust the duration of the
freeze warning and have it start now for the entire cwa. still
expect an unusually-cold northwesterly flow to direct isolated
lake effect snow showers generally southeast of lake erie this
evening before this steering flow backs gradually toward west-
northwesterly saturday morning, which should allow lake snow
showers to become more focused across the primary snow belt and
vicinity. increasing low-level moisture saturday morning should
allow lake effect snow showers to become scattered in coverage
and moderate in intensity at times as lake-induced cape
increases somewhat. some rain may mix with these snow showers
after daybreak saturday, but snow will likely be the predominant
precip type. the rest of the near-term forecast remains valid.
please see the previous discussion for further details.

previous discussion...
northerly flow will continue across the area through tonight as
a mid/upper trough over the eastern great lakes swings east
towards new england. a surge of arctic air will push south
across the lake tonight into saturday morning, with lake effect
snow showers developing later tonight. an area of low level
convergence on the base of the mid level trough will swing east
across the area overnight, which will be the focus for snow
shower activity inland. impressive lake effect setup after 06z
instability-wise, but perhaps a bit less impressive than some of
the soundings over the last 24 hours indicated. inversion
heights should peak around 15kft with 500-600 j/kg lake induced
cape, which will promote scattered lake effect snow showers. the
only thing that looks to limit more organized bands at this
point is a bit of a lack of synoptic moisture. have opted
against thundersnow mention at this point, but the best time
frame would be the 09z-13z window with the best instability.
still, persistence with the shower activity should yield some
minor accumulations on grassy/elevated surfaces, especially
across the higher terrain of nw pa, where and inch or two cannot
be ruled out. the freeze warning remains in effect tonight with
lows dropping into the mid/upper 20s across inland areas, and
low 30s near the lake.

light lake effect precip should continue through the morning
hours, with a slow drying from west to east across the area
through the day into the evening as high pressure builds across
the region. highs saturday will range from the low 40s across nw
pa to the low 50s across nw oh. another cold night is expected
tomorrow night, with lows dropping into the mid 30s across the
area. there is a possibility for another frost/freeze headline
tomorrow night, although winds should remain up through much of
the night, with high clouds streaming across the area late in
the overnight in advance of the next weather system.

&&

.short term /sunday through monday night/...
the short term begins sunday as a low pressure system moves
southeast across mn/wi and will be located just west of the area by
sunday afternoon. ahead of this low and associated cold front, weak
isentropic lift will support some light rain shower activity across
the area. as the cold front advances east across the area late
sunday afternoon and evening, the nam suggests a line of showers and
perhaps embedded thunder along front. as of now, instability across
available models looks fairly benign with mlcape < 100 j/kg so have
not included any mention of thunder. the low will slowly meander
towards pa by sunday night, with a tightening pressure gradient in
west oh leading to blustery northerly flow overnight sunday into
monday morning. wrap around moisture associated with the low will
keep precipitation chances in play across much of the area
throughout the day monday with temperatures struggling to get out of
the 40s. skies will finally attempt to clear out by monday night as
the low exits towards new england. as skies clear, winds will begin
to diminish and temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s,
increasing the threat for widespread frost and perhaps some freezing
areas.

&&

.long term /tuesday through friday/...
for the most part, tuesday looks to be a nice day with mostly sunny
skies as high pressure arrives across the ohio valley,albeit still
about 10 degrees below average. dry conditions and mostly
sunny skies look to continue on wednesday as high pressure begins to
skirt off towards the mid-atlantic coast. highs are once again
forecast to be below average in the low 60s, although with sunny
skies under a may sun, wouldnt be surprised for guidance to be
several degrees too low. a significant pattern change looks to take
place mid to late next week with troughing across the western us and
ridging across the eastern us. this is evident in cpc
s 8 to 14 day
outlook with temperatures finally returning back to normal and
perhaps above normal by next weekend and beyond. high temperatures
on thursday will reach the upper 60s to low 70s with highs on friday
nearing the mid 70s.

a frontal boundary appears to set up across the area by thursday
into friday. several waves of energy will move along this
boundary, but confidence remains low on specific location and
timing so have kept pops at high-end "chance" through much of
this period. pwats don`t look too impressive right now, but some
point-and- click soundings are suggestive of uniform flow from
the surface up through much of the column. this kind of setup
with flow parallel to a boundary is definitely something to
monitor for flooding potential, but the least, it looks to be
warm and wet towards the end of next week.

&&

.aviation /00z saturday through wednesday/...
a surface trough persists over the great lakes and vicinity
through 00z/sun. simultaneously, a surface high moves from the
central great plains to the lower ohio valley. this pattern will
cause surface winds to remain breezy and primary northwesterly.
cloud cover will trend scattered to broken through the taf
period, with ceilings expected to be in the vfr to mvfr range.
isolated to scattered lake effect showers are expected south and
especially southeast of lake erie. wet snow should be the
predominant precip type, but rain may mix with the snow after
12z/sat. visibility should trend vfr to mvfr in these showers,
but brief periods of ifr or lifr are possible in heavier lake
effect snow showers.

outlook...non-vfr possible with lingering lake effect snow
and/or rain showers in far-northeast oh and northwest pa
saturday evening. scattered rain and/or snow showers and non-vfr
possible late sunday morning through monday.

&&

.marine...
ended up having to include the islands into the small craft
advisory through at least 10 am sat. expecting winds to
increase again overnight to 15 to 25 knots and necessitate the
need for the small craft advisory.

the small craft advisory along the rest of the lake continues
through saturday as northerly, then northwesterly winds 20 to 25
knots will develop tonight. winds then turn westerly by
saturday afternoon, but remain at 20 to 25 knots, with up to 30
knots along the eastern basin of lake erie. by sunday morning,
winds diminish slightly, 10 to 15 knots, and shift more
southwesterly with offshore flow. lighter conditions will
prevail across the lake sunday night through monday morning, but
won`t last long as northerly flow develops behind a low
pressure system, increasing winds to 15 to 20 knots by monday
afternoon, lasting through tuesday morning. as high pressure
arrives on tuesday, lighter flow will prevail through tuesday
night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...freeze warning until 11 am edt saturday for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...freeze warning until 11 am edt saturday for paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 am edt saturday for
lez143
small craft advisory until 4 am edt sunday for lez144>149.

&&

$$
synopsis...greenawalt
near term...greenawalt/jaszka
short term...kahn
long term...kahn
aviation...jaszka
marine...kahn/oudeman