Toledo Weather spc ac 141626

Toledo is under an Enhanced Risk.

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1126 am cdt thu mar 14 2019

valid 141630z - 151200z

...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
for northeastern il and vicinity...and through late evening for
parts of the tn and oh valleys...

...summary...
severe thunderstorms are likely from portions of the southeast u.s.
into the ohio valley and southern great lakes. several tornadoes, a
few of which could be strong, damaging winds and isolated large hail
will be possible through this evening.

...tn valley to the oh valley through this evening...
a deep surface cyclone in southeastern ne will move northeastward
over ia/wi/upper mi by this evening, as an associated mid-upper jet
streak ejects northeastward from mo toward the lower great lakes. a
surface cold front will progress eastward from the mid ms valley to
the oh valley, and southeastward into the lower ms valley. a narrow
corridor of low-level moistening and some surface heating in cloud
breaks is expected immediately ahead of the cold front through this
afternoon, which will support some destabilization as far northeast
southern lower mi.

the strongest low-level flow will develop northeastward across tn
toward oh through the afternoon. vertical shear will be very strong
within the warm sector, with effective bulk shear of 70-80 kt and
effective srh of 400-600 m2/s2. boundary-layer dewpoints in the low
60s have spread as far north as the lower oh river as of late
morning, and some additional moistening is expected to the northeast
through the afternoon. midlevel lapse rates are not particularly
steep and surface heating will be slowed by the morning
convection/clouds, so mlcape will likely remain in the 500-1000 j/kg
range. wind profiles will clearly favor supercells, as will the
mode of initiation along and east of the front (not strong linear
forcing for ascent). the vertical shear is on the high end for the
modest buoyancy, but it appears the combination will be sufficient
for the strongest/most sustained supercells to produced isolated
strong tornadoes as the storms are roughly paced by the low-level
destabilization.

additional supercell development will be possible late this
afternoon into this evening along the trailing boundary in the
vicinity of northwestern al. though the strongest low-level flow
will develop north of this area by late afternoon, wind profiles
will remain favorable for supercells/tornadoes given some heating in
cloud breaks and an increase in low-level moisture through the
afternoon.

...central/northeastern il to southern lower mi this afternoon...
bands of convection are developing along the nose of the primary
frontal surge/dry slot near and north of saint louis as of mid
morning. the low levels are destabilizing northward across il with
surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of
56-60 expected to reach northeastern il by early afternoon. a
broken band of low-topped thunderstorms is expected along the wind
shift by this afternoon, when strong vertical shear will support
supercells capable of producing tornadoes, damaging gusts, and
marginally severe hail. the convection will subsequently spread
northeastward toward lower mi later this afternoon. the degree of
destabilization is more questionable compared to areas farther
southwest, but wind profiles will strongly favor organized/supercell
storms.

..thompson/bentley.. 03/14/2019

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note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 2000z
page created: Thu, Mar 14, 2019 - 02:00 PM EST