Links and Notes - Fri, Mar 20, 2020

10:04 a.m.

Wow, it's "warm" out. Breezy but warm. It's also too wet to walk Barney this morning, since it rained most of the night.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Mar 20, 2020 9:52 am EDT
Weather : Partly Cloudy and Breezy
Temperature : 66 F
Humidity : 73%
Wind Speed : WSW 23 mph
Barometer : 29.77 in
Dewpoint: 57 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Mar 20, 2020 9:53 am EDT
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 66 F
Humidity : 78%
Wind Speed : WSW 18 mph
Wind Gust 29 mph
Barometer : 29.77 in
Dewpoint: 59 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Mar 20, 2020 9:55 am EDT
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 65 F
Humidity : 73%
Wind Speed : W 15 mph
Wind Gust 25 mph
Barometer : 29.76 in
Dewpoint: 56 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Mar 20, 2020 6:00 am

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 47 by 5pm. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Blustery, with a north wind 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Northeast wind around 9 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northeast wind around 7 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. East wind 6 to 11 mph.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain after 9pm, mixing with snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Monday: A chance of snow, mixing with rain after 7am, then gradually ending. Partly sunny, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
956 am edt fri mar 20 2020

low pressure will move east across the great lakes
friday, dragging a cold front east across the area through friday
afternoon. behind the front, high pressure will build east across
the area through much of the weekend. another area of low pressure
will approach the ohio valley by sunday night, followed by another
system mid-week.


.near term /through saturday/...

update...adjusted sky grids and hourly temps.

previous discussion...
cluster of showers and thunderstorms across west-central oh
continues tonight with mostly stratiform rain found across the
southern fringes of our area. of note, there has been one
thunderstorm cell which has been fairly organized over the past hour
or so and is currently moving east-northeast. this cluster/cell
could graze the southern tier of counties over the next couple of
hours (morrow/knox/holmes) as a strong llj begins to develop cross
the ohio valley, sustaining the nocturnal convection. showers have
also begun to fire across central indiana with the arrival of this
h850 energy. elevated instability will be able to support a slight
chance of thunder through the morning as this precipitation moves
across the area. precipitation amounts through the morning will be
up to a quarter of an inch along the lakeshore with up to an inch
along the southern tier where the heaviest rain (and convection) is

attention then turns towards later this morning/early afternoon has
a cold front moves east across the area, supported by exceptionally
large bulk shear values up to 70 knots and steep low level lapse
rates. initiation will begin late morning just west of i-71 as a
broken line of showers, then quickly move east across the area,
reaching the oh/pa border and exiting the area by 18-19z. the best
chance for thunder in this line of showers appears to be just west
of the oh/pa border with mlcape values maximized around 400-500
j/kg. the main threat for this line would be damaging winds and the
transport of strong winds aloft (40-50 mph) down to the surface,
given steep theta-e profiles and low level lapse rates. tornado
potential now appears very low if not negligible given
unidirectional shear profiles.

behind the front, winds turn northwesterly and remain gusty, with
values of 20-30 mph through the evening. winds then turn
northerly/northeasterly overnight and decrease down to 10-15 mph.
high pressure returns saturday, but given flow off the lake, clouds
will stick around for much of the day. temperatures will be below
average in the mid to upper 30s.


.short term /saturday night through monday night/...
the short term forecast begins fairly quiet with an upper ridge
building into the great lakes region, supporting surface high
pressure. this combination will be in place through sunday to allow
for dry conditions. cool, canadian air will sink into the region,
which will allow for temperatures to sink into the 20s on saturday
night with clear skies allowing for radiational cooling.
temperatures slightly recover into the 40s for sunday as flow backs
around to the east over the region. a marginal mid-level shortwave
trough enters the central conus on sunday night and will support a
weak surface low entering the ohio valley on sunday night into
monday. this low gets intercepted by a northern stream trough, which
will bring the low northeast and allow it to merge into a stronger
coastal low by monday night. this weak system should allow for some
rain to enter the region late sunday night into monday, although a
wet snowflake may also be possible, especially in nw oh. as the
system pulls away from the region, some warmer air will try to
enter, but highs on monday will likely fall short of normal with
highs in the 40s.


.long term /tuesday through thursday/...
the long term forecast period is features a bit of a back-and-forth
with wet and dry weather. the period begins with high pressure
behind a weak low pressure system, which should allow for tuesday to
be dry. winds are quick to back with the surface high and
temperatures will attempt to get back to normal. another shortwave
trough enters the area on tuesday night, supporting low pressure
that will move over the ohio valley. this will make tuesday night
into wednesday the next wet period, although some of the models are
bringing this system further south. a brief reprieve of rain is
possible on wednesday night as the area remains between low pressure
systems. a trough over the northern plains will support low pressure
over the northern great lakes, which will allow for the region to be
in the warm sector for late next week. temperatures appear to be on
the upward trend for late in the week, but with warmer temperatures,
rain also appears possible and will maintain rain chances in the


.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
mostly vfr this morning as rain showers continue to move east
across the area. some pockets of mvfr visbys/ceilings associated
with rain remain possible through the next couple of hours. a
brief lull in rain will occur mid- morning before a cold front
sweeps through the area later this morning and early afternoon.
this cold front will initiate a narrow line of showers with
some embedded thunder which should quickly exit the area by
around 2-3 pm. behind the front, looking like a good bet
ceilings will remain socked in mvfr except for tol with
north, northeasterly flow off the lake.

southerly winds have continued to be gusty this morning 20-30
knots and will remain gusty through the afternoon. will have to
keep an eye on short-fused wind gusts associated with the
aforementioned line of showers that is expected to move east
across the area late morning/early afternoon. this line has the
potential to bring down strong winds of 35-45 knots aloft down
to the surface. winds begin to diminish by tomorrow evening and
overnight as they turn more northerly.

.outlook...non vfr conditions are possible early next week in
rain and/or snow showers.


low pressure moving through the great lakes region today has allowed
for unfavorable marine weather conditions over lake erie. strong
mixing in the warm sector should allow for some elevated southwest
winds over the lake this morning. this low will extend a cold front
across the lake by this afternoon and winds will shift around to the
west then northwest over the basin and remain strong through the
afternoon and evening hours. waves will begin to respond in the
nearshore waters with the frontal passage and the higher waves
should persist into early saturday. for now, will maintain the small
craft advisory for the lake with the end time of early saturday
morning, although a localized extension may be needed.

high pressure builds into the great lakes region on friday night and
will persist over the area through sunday. as this area of high
pressure propagates through the region, winds will shift around to
the north for saturday and then a less favorable easterly flow over
the lake on sunday. this east flow will remain below 20 knots, but
any east flow is concerning for the western basin for sca conditions
and lakeshore flooding. weak low pressure will enter the ohio valley
from the south on sunday night and winds will come around to the
north by monday and will quickly shift around to the southwest as
the low passes to the east of the region on monday afternoon. high
pressure returns to the great lakes region for monday night into
tuesday and tranquil flow will return to the basin.


.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt saturday for lez142>149.


near term...kahn/tk
short term...sefcovic
long term...sefcovic

Date and Time: 10:00 AM, Fri, Mar 20, 2020
Summary: Overcast
Air Temp: 62 F
Dew Point: 57 F
Humidity: 83 %
Wind Direction: Northwest
Wind Speed: 19 mph
Wind Gust: 32 mph
Apparent Air Temp: F
Pressure: 29.76 inches
UV Index: Low : 1.0
Cloud Cover: 92 % : Cloudy
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 47 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: South-Southeast


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