Links and Notes - Thu, Feb 6, 2020

2:09 p.m.

TOL:
Feb 6, 2020 1:52 pm EST
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 29 F
Humidity : 78%
Wind Speed : NNE 10 mph
Barometer : 29.50 in
Dewpoint: 23 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 20 F


Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Feb 6, 2020 12:18 am

This Afternoon: Patchy snow showers and freezing drizzle. Cloudy, with a high near 30. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight: Snow showers and freezing drizzle likely, becoming all snow after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 26. North wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 32. North wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.


Southeast Wyoming region:

Laramie:
This Afternoon
Snow likely. Patchy blowing snow. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Tonight
Snow. Patchy blowing snow before 7pm. Low around 17. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Friday
Snow. Patchy blowing snow after 1pm. High near 27. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Friday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow before 11pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 18. West wind 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday
A 20 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Saturday Night


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
321 AM MST Thu Feb 6 2020

...MAJOR SNOW STORM CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW RETURNS TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN RAWLINS AND PINE BLUFFS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

WYZ112-114-071200-
/O.CON.KCYS.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200208T1200Z/
Sierra Madre Range-Snowy Range-
Including the cities of Centennial and Albany
321 AM MST Thu Feb 6 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
SATURDAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Riverton WY
254 AM MST Thu Feb 6 2020

...High Wind Warning for Sweetwater County this afternoon through
Friday...

...Strong winds aloft and a tight surface pressure gradient will
combine for high winds across Sweetwater County this afternoon
through Friday...

WYZ028>030-070000-
/O.CON.KRIW.HW.W.0007.200206T1900Z-200208T0000Z/
Rock Springs and Green River-Flaming Gorge-East Sweetwater County-
Including the cities of Rock Springs, Green River, and Wamsutter
254 AM MST Thu Feb 6 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM
MST FRIDAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution if traveling. Please keep two hands on your steering
wheel in case of a sudden, strong wind gust. In a parking lot,
park into the wind to minimize the possibility of your car door
hitting another parked vehicle.

&&


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
321 AM MST Thu Feb 6 2020

...MAJOR SNOW STORM CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW RETURNS TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN RAWLINS AND PINE BLUFFS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

WYZ111-113-071200-
/O.UPG.KCYS.WS.A.0005.200206T2100Z-200208T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KCYS.WW.Y.0012.200206T1021Z-200208T1200Z/
Southwest Carbon County-Upper North Platte River Basin-
Including the cities of Baggs, Saratoga, and Encampment
321 AM MST Thu Feb 6 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
AVALANCHE WATCH
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
555 AM MST THU FEB 06 2020

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER.

Avalanche Watch is in effect for most areas of the Northern and
Central Mountains.


6:40 AM Feb 6th – Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Snowy and Sierra Madres Mountains though Saturday morning while portions of Carbon County have been added to the Winter Storm Warning. Strong winds, snow, and blowing snow are likely along I-80 near Arlington/Elk Mountain and Rawlins as snow will begin later this morning. 2 to 4 feet of snow appears likely at elevations above 9000 feet in the mountains and therefore outdoor recreation will be extremely dangerous for anyone caught unprepared. Snow amounts outside of the mountains vary as adjacent valleys could see anywhere from 2-6 inches of snow depending on the location. The I-80 Summit can also expect strong winds along with significant snowfall which will make travel difficult between Cheyenne and Laramie beginning late this afternoon. The biggest question with this storm still remains to be the amount of snowfall east of the Laramie Range along the I-25 corridor. Models have more recently backed off on bands of heavy snow developing along a line from northern Albany County through Laramie County including the city of Cheyenne. However, the possibility still exists for a heavy band of 6+ inches of snow to develop Friday. Stay tuned for the latest updates! For road conditions across Wyoming and western Nebraska, visit wyoroad.info or 511.nebraska.gov on the Internet, or dial 511 on your phone.


10:43 a.m.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Feb 6, 2020 9:52 am EST
Weather : Overcast with Haze
Temperature : 26 F
Humidity : 81%
Wind Speed : N 13 mph
Barometer : 29.62 in
Dewpoint: 21 F
Visibility : 4.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 15 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Feb 6, 2020 9:53 am EST
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 29 F
Humidity : 85%
Wind Speed : NNE 12 mph
Barometer : 29.63 in
Dewpoint: 25 F
Visibility : 6.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 19 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Feb 6, 2020 10:16 am EST
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 27 F
Humidity : 85%
Wind Speed : NNE 6 mph
Barometer : 29.61 in
Dewpoint: 23 F
Visibility : 7.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 20 F


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
430 am est thu feb 6 2020

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-070930-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
430 am est thu feb 6 2020

...winter weather advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio, northeast
ohio, northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

winter weather advisory.

another winter weather advisory may be needed for tonight with areas
of freezing drizzle or freezing rain increase in coverage after
sunset.

.days two through seven...friday through wednesday.

colder air will arrive around sunrise friday morning changing the
freezing drizzle or rain over to snow. moderate snow accumulations
will be possible across the higher terrain of northeastern ohio into
northwestern pennsylvania friday afternoon into friday night.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.


Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Feb 6, 2020 9:56 am

Today: A chance of freezing drizzle before 1pm, then snow showers likely, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle. Cloudy, with a high near 32. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight: Snow showers likely, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle before 1am, then a chance of snow showers. Patchy fog between 10pm and 1am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 26. North wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 32. North wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday Night: Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 20. West wind 5 to 8 mph.

Saturday: A slight chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Light and variable wind becoming south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: A chance of snow after 1pm, mixing with rain after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: Rain and snow likely before 2am, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
642 am est thu feb 6 2020

.synopsis...
several pieces of low pressure will move northeastward along
the west side of the appalachians into friday. it then appears
that a surface trough will linger across the central great lakes
into saturday. high pressure should briefly influence the
region from new york saturday night.

&&

.near term /through friday/...
freezing drizzle continues across the area. most of it is very
light with little additional impacts anticipated. however since
plenty of ice remains on sidewalks and potentially on a few
overpasses we will keep the advisory going through the morning
commute. highs will hopefully warm to the low to mid 30s for
most of the region.

by this evening the next area of low pressure will be located
near the ohio river valley and begin to increase the lift. the
concern remains that there will not be much ice nuclei to turn
the precipitation over to snow. so freezing drizzle with
pockets of freezing rain could increase in coverage. this all
changes as an upper level trough moves into the region toward
sunrise friday morning. this is when we may chill the area
enough and get the ice nuclei back over the region to transition
back to snow. this may occur as early as 03z-06z across nw
ohio, maybe by 09z across the central area, and then around 12z
across the east. the colder air flowing across the lake will
likely enhance the snowfall for the higher terrain of ne oh into
nw pa for friday afternoon. since the lake induced instability
is not that impressive we do not anticipate anything more than
maybe advisory level snowfall. if we issue any additional
headlines for tonight it may be more for the icing potential.
later shifts will need to look at this closely.

lows tonight dip into the middle to upper 20s and only warm to
within a couple degrees of 30 on friday.

&&

.short term /friday night through sunday night/...
an extensive longwave trough and embedded shortwave disturbances
reside over the eastern united states friday night and saturday. at
the surface, a strong low moves from near maine to near newfoundland
by daybreak saturday and then continues advancing northeastward from
there. this low will extend a trough over the eastern great lakes
region, including our cwa, on friday. by saturday, a surface high
pressure ridge builds eastward over our region. a northwesterly flow
of cold air across lake erie friday evening is expected to back to
westerly overnight and then toward west-southwesterly on saturday.
in response, lake effect snows should shift northward gradually over
the snowbelt friday night into saturday morning and then be located
near the snowbelts shoreline by afternoon. by that time, the lake
snows should be in a greatly diminished state and end altogether by
nightfall due to a lowering subsidence inversion and increasing low-
level vertical shear. of note, these lake snows are not expected to
be intense or very organized throughout the period as model
soundings depict weak lake-induced instability in an airmass that
will not be exceptionally cold. occasional and isolated snow shower
are possible outside the lake snows, especially on saturday, when a
prominent shortwave trough should begin to overspread our cwa from
the west. through saturday, snowfall is forecast to reach 1 to 3
inches in the snowbelt, while an inch or less of snowfall is
expected elsewhere. friday night
s low temperatures should reach the
upper teens to mid 20s. saturdays highs should reach the upper
20s to mid 30s.

the aforementioned shortwave trough and parent longwave trough
should exit to the east saturday night, allowing any lingering snow
showers to end overnight. a subtle shortwave ridge should then
traverse our region from west to east on sunday and be followed by
an approaching shortwave trough by early evening. accordingly, rain
and/or snow showers should begin affecting our cwa from the west
sunday afternoon and early evening. at the surface, the high
pressure ridge will continue affecting our cwa saturday night
through sunday as the ridge slides east toward the atlantic
seaboard. saturday nights low temperatures will reach the 20s
saturday night, while sundays highs should reach the mid to upper
30
s.

the shortwave trough and associated cold front should move east
across our cwa sunday night into early monday morning, allowing
additional rain and/or snow showers to affect the area. low
temperatures should reach the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.long term /monday through wednesday/...
more zonal flow aloft is expected early on this period, with the
aforementioned shortwave trough exiting eastward on monday, while
another shortwave disturbance should move east over our cwa on
tuesday and be followed by amplified high pressure ridging on
wednesday. additional periods of snow and/or rain showers are
possible, especially monday morning and again on tuesday. milder
temperatures are expected during this period, including highs near
40 degrees on monday and then reaching mainly the lower to mid 40`s
on tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
ifr and lower conditions cover most of the region this morning
and we expect this trend to continue. areas of drizzle and
freezing drizzle will likely remain through the morning then
become drizzle where temperatures warm to above freezing. we
will then monitor how long of a lull there will be in the light
precipitation before it ramps back up in the evening. it does
once again look like a wintry mix but currently leaning toward a
freezing drizzle scenario.

northeast winds will gradually shift to the north tonight.
winds speeds will likely be in the 10 to 15 knot range with
some higher gusts developing this evening into the overnight.

.outlook...non-vfr through saturday with multiple rounds of
mixed precipitation.

&&

.marine...
a small craft advisory is in effect until 1 am est saturday for
nearshore waters east of the islands. an additional small craft
advisory may be needed west of the islands on friday.

two low pressure centers, one centered over western west virginia
and another centered over northern alabama, should consolidate over
central virginia by early friday morning. this consolidated low
should deepen as it moves northeastward to the canadian maritimes by
late friday. this low will extend a trough over lake erie through
friday. the pressure gradient around this low pressure system will
remain tight over lake erie through early friday evening, allowing
northeasterly winds of about 15 to 25 knots today to back gradually
to northwesterly on friday. simultaneously, waves as large as 4 to 8
feet are expected east of the islands. farther west, waves may
approach 4 to 5 feet on friday.

as the low pulls away to the northeast friday night, high pressure
will build east over lake erie, resulting in diminishing winds and
lowering waves through the weekend. a cold front should sweep east
across lake erie on monday, causing southwesterly winds to shift to
westerly. as of now, winds and waves are expected to be below small
craft advisory criteria.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
paz001>003.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am est saturday for lez144>149.

&&

$$
synopsis...mm
near term...mm
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...mm
marine...jaszka

Links

https://www.propublica.org/article/the-iowa-caucuses-app-had-another-problem-it-could-have-been-hacked

https://results.thecaucuses.org/

97% reporting (1711 of 1765 precincts) Please note: National Convention Delegates will not be published until all precincts and satellite sites have reported. Precincts will not appear until results are published.

Statewide SDE Numbers by Candidate Candidate SDE National Delegates
Bennet 0 -
Biden 331.351 -
Bloomberg 0.21 -
Buttigieg 550.339 -
Delaney 0 -
Gabbard 0.114 -
Klobuchar 255.216 -
Patrick 0 -
Sanders 546.912 -
Steyer 6.672 -
Warren 381.258 -
Yang 21.643 -
Other 0.693 -
Uncommitted 3.957 -

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/poroshenko-pressure-campaign-solomon-parnas

http://www.toledoblade.com/local/environment/2020/02/04/meeting-to-help-area-farmers-apply-for-h2ohio-grants-draws-capacity-crowd/stories/20200204138

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-06/trump-fans-flooded-iowa-caucus-hotline-top-democrat-says

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/upshot/iowa-caucuses-errors-results.html

https://www.newsweek.com/new-poll-shows-every-democratic-frontrunner-beating-donald-trump-2020-election-1485852

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/us/politics/iowa-caucus-problems.html

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/mitt-romney-is-not-principled-and-he-never-has-been

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2020/02/05/new-hampshire-primary-tracking-poll-bernie-sanders-pete-buttigieg-joe-biden/

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/06/biden-iowa-campaign-111309

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/03/the-2020-disinformation-war/605530/

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

https://nypost.com/2020/02/05/nancy-pelosi-pre-ripped-pages-of-trumps-sotu-speech-video-shows/

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/3a8ajj/an-off-the-shelf-skeleton-project-experts-analyze-the-app-that-broke-iowa

https://www.protocol.com/Newsletters/SourceCode/welcome-to-a-new-kind-of-tech-journalism


https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2020/02/weathercasters-are-talking-about-climate-change-and-how-we-can-solve-it/

grow a garden???


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-democrats-should-have-known-better-than-to-use-an-app/

Regarding the obscene political debacle in Iowa this week, two different views of the problems.

Margaret Sullivan, media writer at WaPo:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/social-media-was-a-cesspool-of-toxic-iowa-conspiracy-theories-last-night-its-only-going-to-get-worse/2020/02/04/0df3a9e8-4757-11ea-ab15-b5df3261b710_story.html

All credible reporting seemed to confirm the explanation that a technical snag, not a dirty trick, was to blame.

A technical snag would delay reporting by a couple hours and not three days.

Nate Silver founder and EIC of 538:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-might-have-screwed-up-the-whole-nomination-process/

The point is that the lead story around the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses is now — and will forever be — the colossal shitshow around the failure to release results in a timely fashion.

Silver's description is magnitudes more correct than Sullivan's.

It's Thursday morning, and the Iowa results are not finalized yet, and a NY Times story implied to reporting inconsistencies still exist. That's not a technical snag. That's a colossal shitshow.

From the Protocol post above:

The Iowa chaos is a bad sign, Joshua Greenbaum, CTO at the U.S. Vote Foundation, told Protocol's Charles Levinson:

"What we're seeing is there's a tech bro culture trying to impose itself on the election world." (More on Iowa down below.)

More from the Protocol post:

How an app crashed a caucus

Last March, Gerard Niemira, the CEO of a company called Shadow Inc., told Protocol's Issie Lapowsky that Democratic election tech was a "tangled morass." He said this in the midst of talking about how he could fix things.

But Shadow's app was at the center of Monday's Iowa caucus debacle. It took a while, but we now have a much clearer picture of what happened:

The app, which was designed to make it easy to tabulate and share caucus data, was built in only a couple of months and given to caucus volunteers with little training or testing.

Motherboard got screenshots of the app, which volunteers had to install on their personal phones through a third-party testing service before going through a complicated login and security system (that didn't actually work). Even in the best case, that process is roughly as intuitive as reading hieroglyphs. And they had to do it this way because they didn't have enough time to go through an app store review process.

In Iowa, The NYT reports, only a quarter of the 1,765 precinct chairs even managed to download and install the app.

The mess up has had immediate consequences. Nevada — which had planned to use Shadow's app for its caucuses in a few weeks — announced that it's changing plans. And the whole idea of using tech in elections is suddenly up for debate (again).

Niemira told Bloomberg that he is "really disappointed that some of our technology created an issue that made the caucus difficult." He blamed the issues on "a bug in the code that transmits results data into the state party's data warehouse."

No, the blame does not belong to a software bug because software bugs are a function of software development.

The problem and the blame goes to the comany or the IDP or whoever decided to provide only two months to create a system that should have been viewed critical.

They should have begun development a year ago, or at least six months ago. The problem seems to be the lack of TESTING that might have discovered the bigs and UI/UX issues with USERS.

The other problem seems that "only" $60,000 was paid for this app development. The system seems too critical for such a low amount. I would have guess at least $100,000 and six months of development, testing, training, stress-testing, testing, etc.

https://www.protocol.com/shadow-app-iowa-caucus


hah! good one. ethics in silicon valley.

https://www.protocol.com/ethics-silicon-valley


About the Des Moines Register:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/is-time-running-out-for-ambitious-political-journalism-at-the-des-moines-register-not-yet/2020/01/29/ba36b040-42d6-11ea-b503-2b077c436617_story.html

They seem undaunted that their newsroom staff, which once approached 200, is now around 60.

They don’t seem fixated on the merger of their owner, Gannett, with GateHouse Media, and the very real possibility that it will mean even more staff cuts.

Local newspapers like the Register and the News — and hundreds more — are in distress as their advertising-based business model has crumbled. More than 2,000 (mostly weeklies) have folded in the past 15 years.

The newspaper industry enjoyed a monopoly on local advertising prior to 1990 or 1980.

Even in 2020, the newspaper industry blames Craigslist, which launched as an email list in 1995 and as a website in 1996. The newspaper industry has had 25 years to adjust.


the war on the media in the u.s. is being conducted by the deranged social media mob.

https://pagesix.com/2020/02/06/gayle-king-furious-with-cbs-for-viral-interview-about-kobe-bryant-rape-case/

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article240035398.html

journalists, however, are hamstrung, since they love to use twitter, which is a weapon, used by the deranged mob.

over the next 10 years, we will probably see more journalism controlled by the deranged mob. journalists will be afraid to investigate entities out of fear of the mob backlash. media orgs will be afraid to publish some investigative stories.

a real media org has no friends and no fear.


https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/clog-lines-iowa-caucus-hotline-posted-online-encouragement-disrupt-results-n1131521