Links and Notes - Tue, Feb 4, 2020

10:13 p.m.

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
424 pm est tue feb 4 2020

424 pm est tue feb 4 2020

this hazardous weather outlook is for northwest ohio.

.day one...tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

a wintry mix is expected wednesday night and will linger across
northwest ohio into thursday morning. one to four inches of snow and
sleet will impact the toledo metro area and surrounding counties by
thursday morning. a brief period of freezing rain, accumulating to a
light glaze, is possible before precipitation tapers off.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

8:45 a.m.

Our sunny day streak ended at two days. It was sunny on Sunday and yesterday. That was our first bout of sunshine in approximately 10 to 12 days. Rain and snow precip is forecast over the next 24 hours with some more snow possible in a couple days.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Feb 4, 2020 7:52 am EST
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 37 F
Humidity : 79%
Wind Speed : NNE 7 mph
Barometer : 29.85 in
Dewpoint: 31 F
Visibility : 8.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 32 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Feb 4, 2020 7:53 am EST
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 37 F
Humidity : 82%
Wind Speed : NE 6 mph
Barometer : 29.87 in
Dewpoint: 32 F
Visibility : 8.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 32 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Feb 4, 2020 8:36 am EST
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 37 F
Humidity : 76%
Wind Speed : NNE 3 mph
Barometer : 29.90 in
Dewpoint: 30 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 35 F

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
506 am est tue feb 4 2020

lake erie open waters from ripley to buffalo ny-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie open waters from willowick to geneva-on-the-lake oh-
lake erie open waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie open waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-ashtabula inland-
ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
506 am est tue feb 4 2020

this hazardous weather outlook is for central lake erie, eastern
lake erie, western lake erie, north central ohio, northeast ohio,
northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day and tonight.

a light wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is possible for
several hours late this afternoon and evening. little or no ice
accumulation is expected and any snow accumulation would be under an

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

a wintry mix is expected wednesday night and lingering across
northwest oh into thursday morning. a period of rain will follow for
thursday, before temperatures fall and a changeover to snow is
expected from west to east from thursday afternoon through evening. a
light glaze of ice is possible before it warms above freezing

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Feb 4, 2020 6:18 am

Today: A slight chance of rain before 3pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 3pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of snow after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. North wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A slight chance of snow after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Northeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Northeast wind around 11 mph.

Wednesday Night: Snow before 5am, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 27. East wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday: A chance of snow and sleet before 7am, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. North wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Monday: Cloudy, with a high near 38.

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
644 am est tue feb 4 2020

a weak low moving along the front this morning will take the
nearly stationary front that has been in the vicinity of the
central and east lakeshore southeast today. high pressure from
the north will build in briefly for wednesday then low pressure
moving northeast to the upper ohio valley wednesday night into
thursday will bring a wintry mix to the region. a trough will
linger across the eastern great lakes through friday.


.near term /through wednesday/...
the front has now pushed across cle as we now have a north wind
and falling temperatures. only made tweaks to hourly
temperatures to try and adjust for the rapid changes on the way.
previous discussion follows.

highs for the day are now. as of 4am a cold front was located
from near bowling green to huron to fairport harbor to erie pa
with a weak low along the front near the oh/pa border. mid/upper
30s were located north of this front while those to the south
remained in the 50s through the night. with the high building
across the midwest/western great lakes and the gradient
tightening/northerly winds increasing, the front will begin to
push southeast and allow that cold air to filter across northern
oh/nw pa. precipitation today, initially in the form of rain,
will be light and primarily focused south of us 30 until mid
afternoon into the early evening. at this point the hi-res
guidance shows a wave and overrunning precipitation to spread
across more of the area. this will likely yield a narrow band
of sleet/freezing rain with cold low levels and remaining warm
air aloft. a band of snow would be north of that. not much to
do with this yet. the potential is there, but level of impact
difficult to determine with such a warm start, an narrow
corridor, and a relatively brief period of occurrence. precip is
much lighter by mid evening. snow accumulation potential would
be a half inc or less. it continues to dry out with only light
snow or a few flurries overnight. temperatures will settle in
the upper 20s.

wednesday is still looking to be dry and be the pause between
systems. temperatures will be seasonable in the lower 30s. any
breaks in the cloud cover will be limited.


.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
southerly to southwesterly flow aloft and associated isentropic lift
over our cwa tap into abundant amounts of gulf of mexico moisture
wednesday night as a longwave trough axis approaches the mississippi
valley from the west. at the surface, a deepening surface low should
track from the lower mississippi valley to the upper ohio valley.
accordingly, precipitation will overspread northern oh and northwest
pa from the south and southwest. as vertical profiles of temperature
and wet-bulb temperature warm via warm air advection and moisture
advection over our cwa, snow should change to a mix of sleet and
freezing rain, and then transition to plain rain from south to north
by daybreak thursday for most locations. the exception may be far-
western portions of our cwa, from roughly sandusky bay to findlay
and points to the northwest, where a colder airmass may permit a mix
of snow, sleet, and freezing rain through the night. during the
overnight hours, snow accumulations should be an inch or less for
most of northern oh and northwest pa. however, where that colder
airmass is expected, snowfall could reach 1 to 2 inches. in
addition, icing from freezing rain could be a glaze to as much as a
tenth of an inch. thus, a winter weather advisory may be needed for
at least portions of our cwa. will let future shifts evaluate the
situation further since forecast temperatures, precip types, and
amounts continue to fluctuate from one forecast cycle to the next.
low temperatures should reach the mid 20s to lower 30s wednesday
evening before readings begin to moderate during the predawn hours
of thursday morning.

between daybreak thursday morning and midnight thursday night, the
longwave trough axis will continue moving eastward toward the
western great lakes and lower ohio/mississippi valley regions, while
the attendant surface low should move from in vicinity of the upper
ohio valley to southern new england. the wintry mix of snow, sleet,
and freezing rain may change to plain rain as far west as ottawa and
hancock counties by late thursday morning as temperature and wet-
bulb temperature profiles continue to warm. by thursday afternoon
and evening, any wintry mix or plain rain will change back to snow
as colder air wraps around the backside of the low pressure system.
additional snow accumulations should be less than one inch and any
additional icing should amount to a very thin glaze. thursdays high
temperatures should be reached around midday and range from the
lower 30
s to the upper 40`s, with a pronounced temperature gradient
directed toward the southeast.

the aforementioned longwave trough and embedded shortwave
disturbances begin to settle over the eastern united states thursday
night as the attendant surface low deepens further in vicinity of
new england and extends a surface trough back into the great lakes
region, including our cwa. periods of light snow should persist as
low temperatures reach the lower to upper 20`s, with the coldest
readings likely in the far-western portions of the cwa.

on friday, the longwave trough and embedded shortwave disturbances
should remain entrenched over the eastern united states, including
our area. at the surface, a trough should linger over the eastern
great lakes and vicinity as the surface low over the new england
area begins to exit toward the northeast. additional periods of
primarily light snow are expected. however, colder air crossing lake
erie on a westerly to northwesterly flow should generate steadier
lake enhanced snows across the snowbelt. high temperatures should
reach the upper 20s to lower 30s.


.long term /saturday through monday/...
on friday night, the broadening longwave trough persists over
our region. snow showers should taper-off over much of the cwa
as a surface ridge builds from the northwest and west. however,
lake enhanced snows should transition to pure lake effect snows
across the snowbelt as a northwesterly to westerly low-level
flow of cold air continues traversing lake erie and low-level
synoptic-scale moisture remains favorably-high. low temperatures
should reach mainly the lower to mid 20`s.

on saturday, lake snows in the snowbelt should end by around midday
as the building surface ridge crests over our area. otherwise, fair
weather is expected as the longwave trough remains overhead. high
temperatures should reach the lower to mid 30s. saturday night is
when a pronounced shortwave disturbance embedded in the longwave
trough and associated surface trough may traverse our area from west
to east. isolated to scattered snow showers may accompany this
disturbance. low temperatures should dip into the 20

behind the shortwave disturbance and parent longwave trough, zonal
flow aloft and a building surface high pressure ridge from the west
should affect our local area on sunday, resulting in fair weather.
high temperatures should primarily reach the mid to upper 30s.
scattered snow showers may return sunday night and then mix with or
change to rain on monday as another trough aloft and associated cold
front may approach northern oh and northwest pa from the northwest.
low temperatures in the 20
s to lower 30s sunday night should be
followed by highs in the upper 30
s to lower 40`s on monday.


.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
the cold front has begun to push south with a wind shift to the
north at cle. remaining terminals will follow through midday.
mvfr ceilings are beginning to develop and will reach fdy/mfd
first with the rest joining by early afternoon. spotty rain
will be possible until more widespread precipitation reaches
the area around and after 19z. timeframe for the possible -pl or
light -fzra will be between 21z and 02z and will be along the
northern portions of the precipitation shield until the entire
column can cool enough for just snow as the precip ends/pulls
away. this transition will need to be monitored. may have some
minor gusts of 20-22 knots with the northeast winds this
afternoon. beginnings of ceiling improvement from the northwest

.outlook...non-vfr possible wednesday morning. non-vfr possible
with snow, freezing rain, sleet and rain wednesday night
through thursday night. mixed precipitation transitions to all
snow for friday and friday night. non-vfr for much of this time.


a front in vicinity of the southern shore of lake erie will move
gradually southward as a cold front this morning. southwesterly to
westerly winds of about 5 to 10 knots veer to northerly following
the passage of this front and will increase to about 15 knots
sustained. northerly winds of about 15 to 20 knots this afternoon
and evening become northeasterly wednesday morning, when these winds
should ease to around 10 to 15 knots. a small craft advisory has
been issued for nearshore waters from the islands to geneva-on-the-
lake for this afternoon through wednesday morning since waves are
expected to reach 3 to 5 feet.

lake erie should be relatively-quiet wednesday afternoon through
saturday. on wednesday afternoon through thursday, northeasterly
winds should back gradually to northerly and then northwesterly.
northwesterly to northerly winds are expected on friday. on
saturday, northwesterly winds should back to southerly and then
easterly during the course of the day. these winds should be no
stronger than about 15 knots sustained.


.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
marine...small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to noon est
wednesday for lez144>147.


near term...oudeman
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka


Iowa caucus voting occurred yesterday. Normally, results are reported on the same night. Not this time.

As of this morning, no results have been reported. This time, Iowa used a smartphone app that was suppose to speed up the reporting process, but the app failed somehow.

"Officials" claim the app was not "hacked." The issue is with reporting, whatever that means.

Inconsistencies were found, whatever that means.

The voting process this time also kept a paper trail, and that's how votes are being tallied. The Iowa democrats expect results to be posted later today, whatever that means.

What's strange is that little info is known about the company that made this wonderful smartphone reporting app. NPR reported this morning that the company is called Shadow, and it's a non-profit. The Iowa democrat party paid $60,000 for the app.

"We found inconsistencies in the reporting," a party statement said. "In addition to the tech systems being used to tabulate results, we are also using photos of results and a paper trail."

This Is The Buzzy Democratic Firm That Botched The Iowa Caucuses

That Last, Unreleased Des Moines Register Poll Of Iowa Really Did Show Biden In Fourth

Gee, what a shock. The app was not tested well. That was obvious when it failed to work.

App Used to Tabulate Votes Is Said to Have Been Inadequately Tested

More proof that Trump entering politics in the summer of 2015 has meant revenue for media orgs and other businesses and orgs.

While the the Trump presidency was at first seen as a boon to news companies, media executives now call it a growing liability to their ad businesses.

Super Bowl posts its first year-to-year ratings increase in five years with roughly 102M viewers watching the broadcast and the stream

The Ken, a one-story per weekday subscription news site in India, says it will unbundle its Southeast Asian offering from its Indian offering

How Bristol Cable's co-operative membership model, where users pay as much or as little as they can, helped it persist with a long-running slavery investigation

Sources: last year WaPo editor Marty Baron threatened to fire reporter Wesley Lowery after he posted a series of tweets about racism in the Tea Party

Behind Amazon’s HQ2 fiasco (

9:27 p.m.:

Still no final numbers. This is stunningly bad.

Buttigieg, Sanders lead as Iowa releases partial results

Biden’s poor showing in Iowa shakes establishment support

Meanwhile tonight, Prez Trump is giving the state of the union speech, which doubles as a campaign ad, and tomorrow, Trump is expected to be acquitted by the Senate for the impeachment thingy. Trump will be "impeached" like Bill Clinton. It did not hurt Slick Willy. The Dems continued to love the Slickster for a long time.

The establishment dems may lose big in Iowa, assuming final number can be reported. Now we will see the democrat party establishment and their friends in the media undercut Sanders and Pete as much as possible.

Faulty Iowa App Was Part of Push to Restore Democrats' Digital Edge

here's the media bias? why should democrats worry if VOTERS desire Pete or Bernie? Those candidates and their supporters are probably mostly democrats too.

nope. the wapo opinion did not discuss the possible "winners" in iowa. the writer focused on the disturbingly low voter turnout. that is a concern for the democrat party.

hillary did not inspire democrat voters in 2016 like obama did in 2008 and 2012. and now this current crop of dem candidates are even less inspiring.

or with each passing year, more people get jaded by the whole voting thing and lose interest, like me.

But the most important tally of the night has been reported, and it should worry Democrats.

Even as the Iowa Democratic Party was trying to sort out the chaos in its reporting system, a party official announced that turnout was “on pace” with what they had seen in 2016.

In other words, it was mediocre. About 170,000 people participated in the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucuses, far short of the unprecedented 240,000 voters who turned out in 2008 and launched Barack Obama on his way to the White House. What was so exciting a dozen years ago was not only how many Iowans showed up, but who they were: young people, first-time caucusgoers, an ethnically diverse mix of voters in an overwhelmingly white state.

Until recent days, there had been plenty of buzz among Democrats that this year would set a new record. There was even some loose talk that turnout could reach 300,000, which would be incontrovertible evidence of the passion that their party is feeling about the prospect of defeating President Trump in November.

Gee, I'm shocked. Hopefully, Sullivan was not surprised. She uses Twitter, the cesspool of the internet, which means she should know all about cesspools.

"Social media was a cesspool of toxic Iowa conspiracy theories last night. It's only going to get worse."

All credible reporting seemed to confirm the explanation that a technical snag, not a dirty trick, was to blame.

Technical snag? No. A snag would delay results by a couple hours. It's now 24 hours and counting. That's not a technical snag. That a malfunction of massive proportions, considering the supposed importance of our elections. The media has whined for over three years about election issues, and now Sullivan calls this epic failure a snag?

With media reporing this atrocious, I root for Facebook. Again.

“The thing that keeps me up at night,” Becker told the Associated Press, is that even if the 2020 election is fair and well-managed, “the losing party’s supporters won’t accept that democracy worked.”

You could see that ugly reality taking shape in the early hours of Tuesday morning, as hashtags flew and political opportunists rubbed their hands in glee.

But Sullivan is blaming the wrong people. The blame belongs to the Iowa Democrat Party and the developers of the app. Social media user acting as expected is an effect of app owners' failures.

If you don't want this kind of misinformation and toxicty, the Sullivan needs to realize that dimwits should not be allowed to produce tech that reaches the public.

Don't blame social media users. Blame the app developers and the IDP.

"Trump Had America's Top TV News Anchors Over for Lunch—and Ate Them Alive"

"Trump says he will award Rush Limbaugh with Medal of Freedom"

Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump told network anchors during a private lunch Tuesday that he will award Rush Limbaugh with the Medal of Freedom, one day after the prominent political radio host announced he has advanced lung cancer.

"Trump Invites Rush Limbaugh to State of the Union Tonight, Plans to Honor Him With Medal of Freedom"

Iowa dems will still be counting votes or something for an election that had fewer than 200,000 voters.

Trump will win this week for sure. But it's only early February. The dems have plenty of time to correct their wayward ship. And the dem establishment better not attempt to take out Pete and Bernie. The dem establishment gets the 100 percent of the blame for losing to Trump in 2016. It was not the fault of bogus posts on Facebook. It was not the fault of the Russians. The dems rigged their primary process to choose a flawed candidate.

Bernie defeated Hillary in Michigan and Wisconsin. Bernie might have had a better chance to win against Trump in 2016.

If the dems only issue and singular focus is defeating Trump and not really helping America and the world in any other manner, then the establishment dems, which includes the media, better sit this election out and let the VOTERS exercise their democratic rights.

"Limbaugh has ‘built a radio empire on spreading hate’: Internet pounds Trump for host's Medal of Freedom award"

the "internet" should pound all those reponsible on the left for failing to run an election in iowa. trump won't care what the "internet" thinks. he's probably honoring rush to infuriate the "internet."

"Upstate GOP leaders plotting to meddle in SC Democratic primary by boosting Bernie Sanders"

hah. that's operation chaos. the problem for the gop is that this could backfire. they should chaos vote for warren or biden the establishment candidates who have no chance of winning against trump. pete and bernie can make the nov 2020 election contest against trump closer.

hells bells, hillary was an establishment dem pick, but enough obama voters switched to trump in 2016 to give trump the victory. the rust belt democrats in the midwest helped trump win.

hence the reason why in the spring of 2019, the dem party chose Milwaukee, WI to host the dems national convention this summer.

the dems follow-up speech tonight that airs after trump's state of the union will be given by michigan's democrat governor.

"The app that broke the Iowa Caucuses was sent out through a beta testing platform"

what complexity?

hah. this is a good headline:

"Iowa Democratic Party: Caucus data accurate, but app coding error spit out partial results"

"The Company That Botched the Iowa Caucus Was Formed Only Months Ago"

i get the feeling that the national media is pound the iowa dems harder than local, iowa-based media.

Bloomberg will attempt to buy the democrat nomination, which is hilarious. It's also the American way.

"Sources: Instagram generated ~$20B in advertising revenue in 2019, making up more than a quarter of Facebook's revenue"

"Sky pledges to be net zero carbon by 2030 by developing sustainable studios, helping its partners, and transforming its 5K vehicle fleet"

the carbon offset scam pimped by a media org.

Raw Story now offsets all of our operations-related carbon emissions, including our home offices and travel, in an effort to inspire news organizations to fight climate change. Recognizing that evaluating carbon offset projects can take time, Raw Story has bought additional carbon offsets to allow readers to offset their own emissions. Raw Story buys 250 metric tons at a time, and buys new offsets each time our inventory is exhausted. We offer two choices: one to offset only your electricity usage, and one to offset your entire footprint.

The ENERGY WAS STILL USED. It was not NOT used.

The fossil fuel-based energy companies ONLY SEE THE DEMAND.

this offset scam does nothing but make these hacks feel good about themselves. it's a fraud.


Planting trees or whatever SHOULD OCCUR REGARDLESS.

Even as of 10:19 p.m., only 62% of the precincts have reported numbers. ?!?!?!?!?

The big picture: The Iowa Democratic Party has released results from 62% of the precincts that caucused on Monday, after a software error held up results from the first real test of candidates' appeal to voters in the 2020 presidential election.

IDP Caucus 2020 Results
62% reporting (1099 of 1765 precincts)
Please note: National Convention Delegates will not be published until all precincts and satellite sites have reported.
Precincts will not appear until results are published.

Candidate   SDE     National Delegates
Bennet      0       -
Biden       210.344 -
Bloomberg   0.133   -
Buttigieg   362.637 -
Delaney     0       -
Gabbard     0       -
Klobuchar   169.694 -
Patrick     0       -
Sanders     337.887 -
Steyer      3.761   -
Warren      246.18  -
Yang        14.273  -
Other       0.28    -
Uncommitted 2.077   -

"New Details Show How Deeply Iowa Caucus App Developer Was Embedded in Democratic Establishment"