Links and Notes - Tue, Nov 26, 2019

10:17 p.m.

TOL:
Nov 26, 2019 9:52 pm EST
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 50 F
Humidity : 74%
Wind Speed : ESE 5 mph
Barometer : 29.76 in
Dewpoint: 42 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 48 F


The following important weather statements exist: A High Wind Warning. A Hazardous Weather Outlook. Visit toledoweather.info for details.

Here are the conditions at Toledo Express Airport as of Nov 26, 2019 9:52 pm EST. Weather was Overcast. Temperature was 50 degrees. Humidity was 74 percent. The wind was from the east-southeast at 5 miles per hour. The wind chill was 48 degrees.

Here is the synopsis from the most recent area forecast discussion. Strong low pressure will track from the southern Plains tonight into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A cold front will push east across the region Wednesday morning. The low will move east out of the region Wednesday night, with high pressure building east across the region Thursday and Friday. Low pressure will move east across the region this weekend.

Here is Toledo's short-term forecast as of Nov 26, 2019 9:18 pm. Tonight will be Rain. Low around 47. Southeast wind 9 to 16 miles per hour, with gusts as high as 29 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday will be Rain, mainly before 10am. Temperature rising to near 56 by 8am, then falling to around 42 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a southwest wind 21 to 26 miles per hour increasing to 27 to 32 miles per hour in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Wednesday Night will be A slight chance of rain before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Windy, with a west wind 18 to 26 miles per hour, with gusts as high as 44 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Thanksgiving Day will be Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 6 to 14 miles per hour. Thursday Night will be Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind around 5 miles per hour becoming calm in the evening.


URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
445 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

LSZ162-263-270545-
/O.CON.KMQT.SR.W.0005.191127T0300Z-191127T2100Z/
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
445 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019 /345 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019/

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY...

A Storm Warning remains in effect from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this
evening to 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ Wednesday.

Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed
information.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots are imminent or
occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take
shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should
prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and
consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds
and waves subside.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
301 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

MIZ001-271100-
/O.CON.KMQT.BZ.W.0004.191127T0600Z-191128T0000Z/
Keweenaw-
Including the city of Copper Harbor
301 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.


URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
445 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

LSZ264>267-270545-
/O.CON.KMQT.SR.W.0005.191127T0600Z-191128T0000Z/
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
445 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A Storm Warning remains in effect from 1 AM to 7 PM EST
Wednesday.

Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed
information.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots are imminent or
occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take
shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should
prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and
consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds
and waves subside.



urgent - weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
932 pm est tue nov 26 2019

ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-271045-
/o.con.kcle.hw.w.0003.191127t1200z-191128t0400z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-
wyandot-crawford-marion-
including the cities of toledo, bowling green, port clinton,
fremont, sandusky, lorain, findlay, tiffin, norwalk,
upper sandusky, bucyrus, and marion
932 pm est tue nov 26 2019

...high wind warning remains in effect from 7 am to 11 pm est
wednesday...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

people should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. if possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. use caution if
you must drive.


Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Nov 26, 2019 9:18 pm

Tonight: Rain. Low around 47. Southeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Rain, mainly before 10am. Temperature rising to near 56 by 8am, then falling to around 42 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a southwest wind 21 to 26 mph increasing to 27 to 32 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of rain before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Windy, with a west wind 18 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 6 to 14 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

Friday Night: Rain and snow showers likely after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: Rain and snow showers, becoming all rain after noon. High near 44. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday Night: Showers. Low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 38.


This should Nov 26-27 and not 27-28.

Toledo Hourly Forecast

6 pm - Nov 27, 2019
temp: 48 F
wind: SE 9 mph
wind chill: 44 F
precip chance 84 %
cloud cover amount 99 %

7 pm - Nov 27, 2019
temp: 48 F
wind: SE 10 mph
wind chill: 44 F
precip chance 90 %
cloud cover amount 99 %

8 pm - Nov 27, 2019
temp: 49 F
wind: SSE 10 mph
wind chill: 44 F
precip chance 95 %
cloud cover amount 99 %

9 pm - Nov 27, 2019
temp: 49 F
wind: SSE 11 mph
wind chill: 44 F
precip chance 100 %
cloud cover amount 100 %

10 pm - Nov 27, 2019
temp: 50 F
wind: SSE 13 mph
wind chill: 44 F
precip chance 100 %
cloud cover amount 100 %

11 pm - Nov 27, 2019
temp: 50 F
wind: SSE 15 mph
wind chill: 45 F
precip chance 100 %
cloud cover amount 100 %

12 am - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 52 F
wind: SSE 17 mph
precip chance 100 %
cloud cover amount 100 %

1 am - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 52 F
wind: SSE 18 mph
precip chance 96 %
cloud cover amount 97 %

2 am - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 53 F
wind: S 21 mph
precip chance 93 %
cloud cover amount 96 %

3 am - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 54 F
wind: S 22 mph
precip chance 89 %
cloud cover amount 96 %

4 am - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 56 F
wind: S 22 mph
precip chance 77 %
cloud cover amount 86 %

5 am - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 56 F
wind: SSW 23 mph
precip chance 65 %
cloud cover amount 65 %

6 am - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 55 F
wind: SW 24 mph
precip chance 53 %
cloud cover amount 54 %

7 am - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 53 F
wind: SW 26 mph
precip chance 53 %
cloud cover amount 69 %

8 am - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 50 F
wind: SW 30 mph
wind chill: 42 F
precip chance 52 %
cloud cover amount 88 %

9 am - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 47 F
wind: WSW 31 mph
wind chill: 37 F
precip chance 52 %
cloud cover amount 95 %

10 am - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 44 F
wind: WSW 31 mph
wind chill: 34 F
precip chance 48 %
cloud cover amount 96 %

11 am - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 43 F
wind: WSW 31 mph
wind chill: 32 F
precip chance 44 %
cloud cover amount 97 %

12 pm - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 42 F
wind: WSW 30 mph
wind chill: 31 F
precip chance 40 %
cloud cover amount 98 %

1 pm - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 41 F
wind: WSW 29 mph
wind chill: 30 F
precip chance 33 %
cloud cover amount 97 %

2 pm - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 41 F
wind: WSW 28 mph
wind chill: 30 F
precip chance 25 %
cloud cover amount 97 %

3 pm - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 41 F
wind: W 28 mph
wind chill: 30 F
precip chance 17 %
cloud cover amount 96 %

4 pm - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 40 F
wind: W 26 mph
wind chill: 30 F
precip chance 15 %
cloud cover amount 96 %

5 pm - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 40 F
wind: W 26 mph
wind chill: 28 F
precip chance 13 %
cloud cover amount 95 %

6 pm - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 39 F
wind: W 26 mph
wind chill: 27 F
precip chance 11 %
cloud cover amount 96 %

7 pm - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 38 F
wind: W 25 mph
wind chill: 26 F
precip chance 9 %
cloud cover amount 95 %

8 pm - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 37 F
wind: W 24 mph
wind chill: 25 F
precip chance 8 %
cloud cover amount 92 %

9 pm - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 36 F
wind: W 23 mph
wind chill: 24 F
precip chance 7 %
cloud cover amount 91 %

10 pm - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 35 F
wind: W 22 mph
wind chill: 24 F
precip chance 6 %
cloud cover amount 89 %

11 pm - Nov 28, 2019
temp: 35 F
wind: WNW 21 mph
wind chill: 23 F
precip chance 5 %
cloud cover amount 87 %


Tue, Nov 26, 2019 - Light rain in the evening and overnight. Cloud cover: Partly Cloudy. Precip type: rain. Snow accumulation: 0.0 inches. Precip probability: 68 %. Low temp 45 at 07:40 PM. High temp 52 at 12:36 PM. Dew point 40. Humidity 80. Apparent high temp 52. Wind: South-Southeast at 5 mph. Sunrise: 07:38 AM. Sunset: 05:08 PM. Moon: 0.02 = Waxing Crescent.

Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - Light rain in the morning. Cloud cover: Cloudy. Precip type: rain. Snow accumulation: 0.0 inches. Precip probability: 95 %. Low temp 33 at 07:07 AM. High temp 55 at 09:35 AM. Dew point 42. Humidity 83. Apparent high temp 54. Wind: Southwest at 24 mph. Sunrise: 07:39 AM. Sunset: 05:08 PM. Moon: 0.05 = Waxing Crescent.

Thu, Nov 28, 2019 - Mostly cloudy throughout the day. Cloud cover: Mostly Cloudy. Precip type: rain. Snow accumulation: 0.0 inches. Precip probability: 11 %. Low temp 30 at 06:25 AM. High temp 40 at 03:18 PM. Dew point 29. Humidity 74. Apparent high temp 33. Wind: Northwest at 13 mph. Sunrise: 07:40 AM. Sunset: 05:08 PM. Moon: 0.09 = Waxing Crescent.


Light rain until tomorrow morning.

10:00 PM, Tue, Nov 26, 2019 - 2019-11-27T03:00:00Z - Icon: cloudy. Temp: 47. Apparent temp: 43. Wind: ESE 8 mph, gust: 8 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 23%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 100%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 83%. UVI Index: Low.

11:00 PM, Tue, Nov 26, 2019 - 2019-11-27T04:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 47. Apparent temp: 43. Wind: SE 9 mph, gust: 10 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 43%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 100%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 83%. UVI Index: Low.

12:00 AM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T05:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 48. Apparent temp: 44. Wind: SSE 10 mph, gust: 18 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 55%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 100%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 83%. UVI Index: Low.

01:00 AM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T06:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 49. Apparent temp: 44. Wind: SSE 12 mph, gust: 26 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 67%. Precip intensity: Moderate. Cloud cover amt: 100%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 83%. UVI Index: Low.

02:00 AM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T07:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 49. Apparent temp: 44. Wind: SSE 14 mph, gust: 30 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 67%. Precip intensity: Moderate. Cloud cover amt: 100%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 86%. UVI Index: Low.

03:00 AM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T08:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 50. Apparent temp: 44. Wind: SSE 16 mph, gust: 33 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 59%. Precip intensity: Light to Moderate. Cloud cover amt: 96%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 88%. UVI Index: Low.

04:00 AM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T09:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 51. Apparent temp: 51. Wind: SSE 19 mph, gust: 36 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 57%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 94%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 90%. UVI Index: Low.

05:00 AM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T10:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 51. Apparent temp: 51. Wind: SSE 20 mph, gust: 40 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 53%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 97%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 91%. UVI Index: Low.

06:00 AM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T11:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 52. Apparent temp: 52. Wind: SSE 22 mph, gust: 44 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 62%. Precip intensity: Light to Moderate. Cloud cover amt: 98%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 91%. UVI Index: Low.

07:00 AM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T12:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 53. Apparent temp: 53. Wind: S 23 mph, gust: 46 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 49%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 99%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 90%. UVI Index: Low.

08:00 AM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T13:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 53. Apparent temp: 53. Wind: S 23 mph, gust: 45 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 45%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 96%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 88%. UVI Index: Low.

09:00 AM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T14:00:00Z - Icon: wind. Temp: 54. Apparent temp: 54. Wind: SSW 22 mph, gust: 42 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 31%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 82%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 85%. UVI Index: Low.

10:00 AM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T15:00:00Z - Icon: wind. Temp: 54. Apparent temp: 54. Wind: SW 23 mph, gust: 44 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 18%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 66%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 83%. UVI Index: Low.

11:00 AM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T16:00:00Z - Icon: wind. Temp: 52. Apparent temp: 52. Wind: SW 26 mph, gust: 44 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 16%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 79%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 81%. UVI Index: Low.

12:00 PM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T17:00:00Z - Icon: wind. Temp: 48. Apparent temp: 40. Wind: SW 28 mph, gust: 44 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 11%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 72%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 82%. UVI Index: Low.

01:00 PM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T18:00:00Z - Icon: wind. Temp: 45. Apparent temp: 35. Wind: SW 29 mph, gust: 45 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 9%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 68%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 85%. UVI Index: Low.

02:00 PM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T19:00:00Z - Icon: wind. Temp: 43. Apparent temp: 32. Wind: WSW 30 mph, gust: 46 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 11%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 76%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 86%. UVI Index: Low.

03:00 PM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T20:00:00Z - Icon: wind. Temp: 41. Apparent temp: 30. Wind: WSW 30 mph, gust: 47 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 19%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 89%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 86%. UVI Index: Low.

04:00 PM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T21:00:00Z - Icon: wind. Temp: 41. Apparent temp: 30. Wind: WSW 30 mph, gust: 48 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 26%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 100%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 84%. UVI Index: Low.

05:00 PM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T22:00:00Z - Icon: wind. Temp: 41. Apparent temp: 30. Wind: WSW 29 mph, gust: 48 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 22%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 100%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 81%. UVI Index: Low.

06:00 PM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-27T23:00:00Z - Icon: wind. Temp: 41. Apparent temp: 31. Wind: W 29 mph, gust: 47 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 12%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 100%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 77%. UVI Index: Low.

07:00 PM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-28T00:00:00Z - Icon: wind. Temp: 41. Apparent temp: 31. Wind: W 28 mph, gust: 46 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 11%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 100%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 76%. UVI Index: Low.

08:00 PM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-28T01:00:00Z - Icon: wind. Temp: 41. Apparent temp: 30. Wind: SSW 27 mph, gust: 44 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 12%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 100%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 76%. UVI Index: Low.

09:00 PM, Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - 2019-11-28T02:00:00Z - Icon: wind. Temp: 41. Apparent temp: 30. Wind: NNW 26 mph, gust: 42 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 13%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 100%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 78%. UVI Index: Low.


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
912 pm est tue nov 26 2019

.synopsis...
strong low pressure will track from the southern plains tonight
into the great lakes on wednesday. a cold front will push east
across the region wednesday morning. the low will move east out
of the region wednesday night, with high pressure building east
across the region thursday and friday. low pressure will move
east across the region this weekend.

&&

.near term /through wednesday night/...
no changes were made to the wind forecast for this deepening low
pressure system that is expected to make impacts to our area.
timing for precipitation was adjusted a little bit, particularly
for the onset of rain tonight. pushed the timing back by an hour
or two. also removed the chance for thunder from the forecast.
there is a very small amount of instability through the
overnight period providing a chance for a rumble or two or
thunder somewhere, though not enough to warrant a mention in
the forecast. the biggest change made was for wednesday night.
based on high-resolution guidance, bumped the hourly
temperatures by a degree or two for wednesday night. this will
result in a slightly earlier transition to snow and increases
the chance for accumulating snow slightly for northwest
pennsylvania and far northeast ohio. right now, the most we are
expecting is two inches of snow over elevated areas in northwest
pennsylvania.

original discussion...
minor changes overall to the forecast overnight through
wednesday night, as deepening low pressure tracks northeast from
the southern plains this afternoon into the great lakes on
wednesday. rain showers will overspread the area this evening
and from west to east across the area overnight as the warm
advection wing of the system lifts through the region. there
may be enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder, so
allowed the slight chance thunder mention to continue. temps
will fall into the upper 40s/low 50s this evening, and will
level off through the night as warmer air lifts north into the
area.

a brief lull in precipitation will move across the area ahead of
the cold front early tomorrow morning. a line of
showers/possible storms will push east with the front through
the morning. winds will increase significantly with the frontal
passage. have opted to upgrade the western portion of the area
to a high wind warning, where winds are expected to gust to 60
mph for a time tomorrow afternoon. the window for the best winds
looks to be in the 1pm-6pm time frame, where soundings suggest
mixing to 4kft, coincident with the passage of a 50-60 kt low
level jet. winds will subside tomorrow night, but will remain a
bit stronger along the lake erie shore through much of the
night. some wrap around low level moisture and instability will
promote rain shower activity during the afternoon/evening across
the area, which is handled with low chance pops. lake effect
will linger longer through the night across the snow belt
region, with some mixing/transition to snow expected, especially
across higher elevations, after midnight tomorrow night. some
light accumulations cannot be ruled out, especially across
inland northwest pa. temps will peak in the 50s tomorrow
morning, and will fall through the 40s behind the cold front
during the day. lows tomorrow night will be in the mid/upper
30s.

&&

.short term /thursday through friday night/...
low pressure will be located off the new england coast by
thursday morning with a trough across the eastern great lakes
trending weaker through the day. scattered showers may linger
across the snowbelt on thursday morning with precip type in
question as moisture depth decreases below 6-7k feet. will keep
a mix of rain or snow showers in the forecast but temperatures
will be above freezing and expect little more than trace amounts
of snow for inland nw pa if any. otherwise mostly cloudy
conditions are expected for thanksgiving day with below normal
temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

strong ridging will build southeast out of canada from thursday
night into friday. generally expecting moisture to be trapped
beneath a strong inversion and will keep skies mostly cloudy. if
skies were to scatter out, temperatures would likely be cooler
for thursday night. by the time low clouds starts to clear on
friday, higher clouds will already be on the increase ahead of
the next system.

&&

.long term /saturday through tuesday/...
we will be watching a nearly vertically stacked low pressure system
slide east out of the plains across the southern great lakes region
over the weekend. overrunning will develop and expand east through
the day on saturday as the surface low is forecast to occlude west
of the great lakes. models are in fairly good agreement with this
cycle which is reflected with the highs pops focused in the saturday
and saturday night time frame. precipitation on saturday is expected
to fall primarily as rain but could start with a rain/snow mix in
far eastern areas. it will take until sunday night for colder air to
be pulled in from the northwest and force a change over to snow. at
this time the airmass appears a little too warm for any heavy lake
effect snows to follow but that will be something to monitor over
time. temperatures will trend below normal for the early part of
next week.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions are expected to continue through the next few
hours. conditions deteriorate after 03z from west to east
across the area as strong low pressure accompanied by widespread
rain moves into the great lakes. rain will overspread the
area from west to east, with ceilings and visibilities becoming
mvfr, and possibly brief ifr at a few sites around 12z. not
enough confidence to add ifr in the tafs at this point, but it
seems likely there will be a couple hours of ifr conditions at a
few taf sites. low ceilings will persist through the end of the
period with a few hours of vfr conditions mixed in late
wednesday afternoon.

the biggest impacts will come in the form of exceptionally gusty
winds. winds will increase tonight ahead of the aforementioned
low, with southerly winds becoming westerly after 12z from west
to east as a cold front moves across the area. all taf sites
will experience some gusts of at least 35 to 40 knots with gusts
up to 50 knots possible at ktol and kfdy, especially during the
afternoon hours tomorrow. some llws is possible as a strong
low-level jet moves overhead, but with winds and gusts elevated
at the surface, only included llws at western sites where the
jet will be strongest before surface winds ramp up. even so,
llws may be possible at all taf sites, and may need to be added
to the tafs in a future update.

.outlook...non-vfr conditions continue wednesday night into
thursday. non-vfr possible friday night through sunday with
rain and possibly snow.

&&

.marine...
gale warnings remain in effect for all of lake erie on wednesday and
a low water advisory has been issued for the western basin of the
lake. a strengthening low pressure system will track from the
southern plains to near lake michigan by wednesday morning, then
sliding east to near lake ontario on wednesday night. southeast
winds ramp up to 30 knots on wednesday morning in advance of this
system, with a cold front wrapping in from the southwest with gale
force winds developing. southwest gales of 35 to 40 knots rapidly
develop during the afternoon on wednesday and could briefly approach
45 knots on the east half of the lake during the evening. waves will
build to 8 to 14 feet across the east half of lake erie. gale
warnings end by 12z thursday but small craft advisories will need to
continue until thursday evening from lorain eastward. the strong
southwest winds will also result in low water conditions on the
western basin with water levels forecast to fall below low water
datum. water levels will likely reach a half foot or more below low
water datum which is approximately two and a half feet below the
critical mark for safe navigation. the lowest water levels are
expected to occur wednesday evening.

high pressure will build east across the great lakes region behind
this departing system thursday night through friday night. another
low pressure system is expected to slide east across the great lakes
region saturday night through sunday night bringing another window
of unsettled conditions.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory from 7 am wednesday to 7 am est thursday for
ohz011-012-089.
wind advisory from 10 am wednesday to 4 am est thursday for
ohz013-014-020>023-031>033-038.
high wind warning from 7 am to 11 pm est wednesday for ohz003-
006>010-017>019-027-028-036.
wind advisory from 7 am to 11 pm est wednesday for ohz029-030-
037-047.
pa...wind advisory from 7 am wednesday to 7 am est thursday for
paz001-002.
wind advisory from 10 am wednesday to 4 am est thursday for
paz003.
marine...low water advisory from 10 am wednesday to 4 am est thursday
for lez142>144-162>164.
gale warning from 7 am wednesday to 4 am est thursday for
lez142>147-162>167.
gale warning from 10 am wednesday to 7 am est thursday for
lez148-149-168-169.

&&

$$
synopsis...greenawalt
near term...greenawalt/saunders
short term...kec
long term...kec
aviation...saunders
marine...kec


nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
921 pm est tue nov 26 2019

for waters within five nautical miles of shore

waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

lez142>144-270945-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
921 pm est tue nov 26 2019

...gale warning in effect from 7 am est wednesday through late
wednesday night...
...low water advisory in effect from 10 am wednesday to 4 am est
thursday...

.rest of tonight...southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south
15 to 20 knots. a chance of rain early, then rain after midnight.
waves 1 to 3 feet.
.wednesday...south winds to 30 knots becoming southwest and
increasing to 35 knot gales in the afternoon. showers in the
morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. waves 2 to
4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. waves occasionally around 7 feet.
.wednesday night...west gales to 35 knots becoming northwest and
diminishing to 30 knots overnight. a chance of rain showers in
the evening. waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. waves
occasionally around 9 feet.
.thursday...northwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to
15 knots. mostly cloudy. waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to
3 feet. waves occasionally around 6 feet.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday.

the water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 45
degrees, and off erie 42 degrees.

$$

lez145>147-270945-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-
the lake oh-
921 pm est tue nov 26 2019

...gale warning in effect from 7 am est wednesday through late
wednesday night...

.rest of tonight...southeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to
15 to 20 knots. a chance of rain late this evening. rain after
midnight. waves 2 feet or less.
.wednesday...south winds to 30 knots becoming southwest and
increasing to 40 knot gales in the afternoon. showers in the
morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. waves 1 to
3 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. waves occasionally around
13 feet.
.wednesday night...southwest gales to 40 knots becoming northwest
and diminishing to 30 knots overnight. rain showers likely in the
evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight. waves 7 to
11 feet. waves occasionally around 14 feet.
.thursday...northwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to
15 knots. cloudy. waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
waves occasionally around 11 feet.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday.

the water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 45
degrees, and off erie 42 degrees.

$$

lez148-149-270945-
lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
921 pm est tue nov 26 2019

...gale warning in effect from wednesday morning through thursday
morning...

.rest of tonight...southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. a chance of
rain after midnight. rain late. waves 1 foot or less.
.wednesday...southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest
and increasing to 40 knot gales in the afternoon. showers. waves
1 to 3 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. waves occasionally around
13 feet.
.wednesday night...southwest gales to 40 knots becoming west and
diminishing to 30 knots overnight. showers in the evening, then
rain overnight. waves 8 to 12 feet subsiding to 7 to 10 feet.
waves occasionally around 15 feet.
.thursday...northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 10 to
15 knots. rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the
afternoon. waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. waves
occasionally around 11 feet.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday.

the water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 45
degrees, and off erie 42 degrees.


5:22 p.m.

Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Nov 26, 2019 3:48 pm

Tonight: Showers, mainly after 9pm. Low around 48. Southeast wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 10am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10am and 11am, then a chance of showers after 11am. Temperature falling to around 41 by 5pm. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 25 mph becoming southwest 27 to 32 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of showers before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Windy, with a west wind 20 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 6 to 15 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

Friday Night: Rain and snow showers likely after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: Rain and snow showers, becoming all rain after 1pm. High near 44. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday Night: Showers. Low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday: Showers likely, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 38.

3:40 p.m.

Temps were in the low 50s this hour. The sky was overcast. The sky clouded over around Noon with mid-level clouds. The cloud base has lowered this afternoon. It's dreary outside. Our garage lights have come on but not our neighbors. Even with the curtains open, I need the lights on in the computer room. Time of the year.

TOL:
Nov 26, 2019 2:52 pm EST
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 52 F
Humidity : 66%
Wind Speed : ESE 3 mph
Barometer : 29.86 in
Dewpoint: 41 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

2:18 p.m.

Bad news on the wind front. A few minutes ago, the Cle NWS upgraded the wind headline from a Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning. Triple ouch. Man, I hate living underneath oak trees. We should have ditched this lot 11 years ago after our neighbor's big oak tree snapped during a severe thunderstorm and landed on our front yard, missing our house by about 15 to 20 feet.

people should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. if possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. use caution if
you must drive.

The duration is disturbingly too long. 7:00 a.m. to 11:00 p.m.


urgent - weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
205 pm est tue nov 26 2019

ohz003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036-270315-
/o.upg.kcle.wi.y.0014.191127t1200z-191128t0900z/
/o.new.kcle.hw.w.0003.191127t1200z-191128t0400z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-
wyandot-crawford-marion-
including the cities of toledo, bowling green, port clinton,
fremont, sandusky, lorain, findlay, tiffin, norwalk,
upper sandusky, bucyrus, and marion
205 pm est tue nov 26 2019

...high wind warning in effect from 7 am to 11 pm est wednesday...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

people should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. if possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. use caution if
you must drive.

11:22 a.m.

Barney and I walked late this morning. The weather is fabulous. The sky was nearly clear, which is unusual at this time of the year. The wind was nearly calm. Temp was around 50 degrees. Unfortunately, good weather is quickly followed by bad weather when it's November and early December.

Tonight: Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2am. Low around 49. East wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Showers, mainly before 10am. Temperature rising to near 56 by 8am, then falling to around 42 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a south wind 18 to 23 mph becoming southwest 24 to 29 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

The Cle NWS issued a Wind Advisory for its coverage area. The Northern Indiana NWS office issued a High Wind Watch. Ouch. I hope that's not the case. Fulton and Henry counties were included in the High Wind Watch.

The Detroit/Pontiac NWS office has not issued any wind-related headlines for Monroe and Lenawee counties.

From this morning's AFD, issued by the Cle NWS:

the southeast winds begin to increase after midnight and we will already have some minor gusts prior to dawn. the low reaches is deepest point early wednesday morning and then begins to fill as it crosses lower ontario during the day wednesday. the forecast wind fields are a little less than previous runs, but have been consistently within range of wind advisory criteria (sustained of 31-39 mph and/or gusts of 46 to 57 mph). therefore have gone ahead and issued the advisory with this forecast issuance. the strongest winds will be associated with and right behind the cold front which is expected to cross western oh mid morning and sweep quickly east. gusts will continue into the evening hours.


Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Nov 26, 2019 10:52 am EST
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 50 F
Humidity : 66%
Wind Speed : W 3 mph
Barometer : 29.92 in
Dewpoint: 39 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 50 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Nov 26, 2019 10:53 am EST
Weather :
Temperature : 48 F
Humidity : 0%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 29.94 in
Dewpoint: NA F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Nov 26, 2019 10:55 am EST
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 51 F
Humidity : 63%
Wind Speed : SSE 3 mph
Barometer : 29.92 in
Dewpoint: 39 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles


urgent - weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
337 am est tue nov 26 2019

ohz003-006>013-017>022-027>032-036>038-047-262030-
/o.new.kcle.wi.y.0014.191127t1200z-191128t0900z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-wyandot-crawford-
richland-ashland-wayne-stark-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
including the cities of toledo, bowling green, port clinton,
fremont, sandusky, lorain, cleveland, mentor, chardon, findlay,
tiffin, norwalk, medina, akron, ravenna, upper sandusky, bucyrus,
mansfield, ashland, wooster, canton, marion, mount gilead,
millersburg, and mount vernon
337 am est tue nov 26 2019

...wind advisory in effect from 7 am wednesday to 4 am est
thursday...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. secure outdoor objects.


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
512 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025-262100-
/O.CON.KIWX.HW.A.0002.191127T1200Z-191128T0000Z/
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-
Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-
White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-
Jay-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
Including the cities of Michigan City, La Porte, South Bend,
Mishawaka, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee,
Lagrange, Topeka, Shipshewana, Angola, Fremont, Kendallville,
Ligonier, Albion, Auburn, Garrett, Knox, North Judson, Bass Lake,
Winamac, Francesville, Medaryville, Plymouth, Bremen, Culver,
Rochester, Akron, Warsaw, Winona Lake, Syracuse, Mentone,
Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Fort Wayne, New Haven,
Monticello, Monon, Brookston, Logansport, Royal Center, Peru,
Grissom AFB, Mexico, Wabash, North Manchester, Huntington,
Roanoke, Bluffton, Ossian, Decatur, Berne, Marion, Gas City,
Upland, Hartford City, Montpelier, Portland, Dunkirk, Niles,
Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Buchanan,
Paw Paw Lake, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Marcellus, Sturgis,
Three Rivers, White Pigeon, Mendon, Coldwater, Bronson,
Hillsdale, Jonesville, Litchfield, Bryan, Edgerton, Wauseon,
Archbold, Swanton, Delta, Defiance, Sherwood, Hicksville,
Napoleon, Deshler, Liberty Center, Paulding, Antwerp, Payne,
Ottawa, Leipsic, Columbus Grove, Continental, Pandora, Van Wert,
Ohio City, Lima, and Spencerville
512 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2019 /412 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2019/

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.


Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
358 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-270900-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
358 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms tonight as low pressure system
lifts north of the area. Locally heavy downpours resulting in ponding
on roads will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible along and south of M-59
during the day Wednesday. Gusts up to 40 mph can be expected farther
north.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.


Toledo 7-day forecast

Last Update: Nov 26, 2019 10:04 am

Today: Increasing clouds, with a high near 53. Light and variable wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2am. Low around 49. East wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Showers, mainly before 10am. Temperature rising to near 56 by 8am, then falling to around 42 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a south wind 18 to 23 mph becoming southwest 24 to 29 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 35. Windy, with a west wind 18 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 6 to 15 mph.

Thursday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 32.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 41.

Friday Night: Rain and snow likely, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: Snow likely before 8am, then rain and snow between 8am and 10am, then rain after 10am. High near 46. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night: Rain. Low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Sunday: Rain likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: A chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
958 am est tue nov 26 2019

.synopsis...
a cold front will stall across northwest ohio today as a
developing low moves out of the ok panhandle and to wisconsin
by wednesday morning. this will bring a strong cold front across
the region wednesday and be accompanied by strong wind gusts.
high pressure will overspread the area through the course of the
day on thanksgiving.

&&

.near term /through wednesday/...
a few adjustments to sky cover and temperatures with the mid
morning update. sky cover remains minimal over the area this
morning, but we should see an increase in clouds from the
southwest this afternoon. bumped temps up slightly in a few
areas. the cleveland area could make a run at 60 this afternoon,
but have held highs just shy of this mark for now. previous
discussion follows.

a stalling cold front will approach northwest oh today and
attempt to impact temperatures. the rest of the area will
maintain some weak ridging/gradient through the first half of
the day and with mild temperatures, we may even get a bit of a
modified lake breeze. overall not a half bad day with
temperatures similar to yesterday. clouds will be on the
increase and thicken through the afternoon. was counting on some
early cloud development across northwest oh this morning even
though it is clear at the moment. precip chances reach the i-75
corridor this afternoon, although it may be scattered at first.
the more widespread rainfall holds off until closer to and after
midnight as the low nears the great lakes/nrn il/srn wi and the
strong upper support arrives. did add the mention of a slight
chance of thunderstorms with some slightly elevated
instability/low cape for late tonight/early wednesday.
temperatures will be mild overnight and hover around 50 degrees.
the east lakeshore will likely be warmest overnight/early
wednesday than they are during the day today. the southeast
winds begin to increase after midnight and we will already have
some minor gusts prior to dawn. the low reaches is deepest point
early wednesday morning and then begins to fill as it crosses
lower ontario during the day wednesday. the forecast wind fields
are a little less than previous runs, but have been
consistently within range of wind advisory criteria (sustained
of 31-39 mph and/or gusts of 46 to 57 mph). therefore have gone
ahead and issued the advisory with this forecast issuance. the
strongest winds will be associated with and right behind the
cold front which is expected to cross western oh mid morning and
sweep quickly east. gusts will continue into the evening hours.
showers will decrease and end with the passage of the front,
but wrap around moisture and the approach of a secondary trough
toward evening may bring a few showers back into northwest oh.
highs will be early in the day with temperatures in the 40s by
5pm/sunset.

&&

.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
the potent, vertically-stacked low should be centered near
georgian bay early wednesday evening. this low will move
generally eastward to atlantic waters south of newfoundland and
east of nova scotia by nightfall on friday. behind this low,
high pressure aloft will build from the west. simultaneously, a
surface high drifts from northern manitoba to near james bay and
extends a ridge over our cwa. accordingly, winds will subside
steadily over our forecast area as the pressure gradient relaxes.

the above pattern should allow a westerly to northwesterly low-level
flow of cold air to direct multiple bands of lake effect rain and/or
snow across the primary snowbelt of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania wednesday evening into thursday morning. any lingering
lake effect precip should then end by early evening on thanksgiving
as subsidence accompanying the building ridge allows lake-induced
instability to wane. lake snow accumulations are still expected to
be no more than an inch or two and confined to the higher terrain of
the primary snowbelt. dry weather is likely outside any lake effect
precip. fair weather is then expected for the entire cwa
thanksgiving night through friday. near-normal low temperatures and
slightly below-normal high temperatures are forecast through the
period.

&&

.long term /saturday through monday/...
rain and/or snow showers are possible friday night and saturday
as the aforementioned high pressure ridge continues to move
eastward and a warm front approaches our cwa from the southwest.
this warm front will accompany a vertically-stacked low
pressure center moving eastward over the northern great plains.
model solutions begin to diverge saturday night through next
week tuesday. in general, the low looks to move eastward toward
and through the great lakes region saturday night through monday
morning, with the trailing cold front crossing our cwa from
west to east sometime on sunday. this should result in
additional periods of rain and/or wet snow saturday night
through sunday. precip should then transition to localized lake
effect precip, mainly in the form of snow, sunday night into
monday morning. the primary snowbelt still looks to be the
preferred area for this lake effect precip. high pressure should
then build east over our cwa later monday through tuesday,
allowing lake effect precip to diminish gradually in the primary
snowbelt.

temperatures should be near or slightly-above normal friday night
through sunday. readings may then trend slightly below-normal for
early december during sunday night through tuesday of next week.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
conditions will be changing over the next 12 to 36 hours. a
cold front is nearing toledo this morning and still think there
is a decent chance of some morning mvfr for tol/fdy. with this
forecast have adjusted that to be some br over cigs. dense fog
is located just on the cool side of the front, but this front
will have little more progress eastward. that leaves the
remainder of the area vfr for today with a south-southeast
wind (except easterly at tol and a likely weak lakebreeze for
eri).

non- vfr will be encroaching the western terminals toward/after
03z wed. more widespread mvfr ceilings and areas of ifr
cigs/vsby within the heavier rain showers will make their way
across the terminals overnight. a rumble of thunder is not out
of the question but is a low probability. the south- southeast
winds will begin to increase this evening. may see a few
isolated gusts around 20 knots by shortly after midnight. higher
gusts of 25 to 30 knots will touch tol/fdy/mfd and possibly cle
before 12z wed. isolated the mention of llws to times off low
level jet arrival, but before the surface gusts pick up. future
shifts can tweak this further

.outlook...non-vfr and gusts in excess of 35 knots likely
wednesday. non- vfr conditions continue throughout the day
thursday and into friday morning. non-vfr possible saturday
afternoon.

&&

.marine...
high pressure centered well offshore cape hatteras will extend a
ridge over lake erie today as the high moves eastward. meanwhile,
developing low pressure over the southern great plains this morning
will move northeast and strengthen by the time it reaches northern
lake michigan early wednesday afternoon. this potent low should then
move generally eastward wednesday night before reaching the canadian
maritimes around daybreak thursday. behind this low, high pressure
over far-northern ontario will extend a ridge to the lake erie
region on thursday and friday. on saturday, another low will track
from the northern great plains toward lake michigan and its
circulation will begin to affect lake erie.

relatively-quiet conditions are expected on lake erie today and
tonight. southwesterly winds early this morning will ease and shift
to easterly by this early evening. these easterly winds will then
shift to southeasterly and then southerly overnight tonight as a
warm front sweeps northeastward over the lake. simultaneously, these
winds will increase toward 20 knots as the pressure gradient
tightens and waves will build to 2 to 4 feet, especially in the open
waters. as a cold front crosses lake erie wednesday, winds will veer
to the southwest and then west and increase to 35 to 40 knot gales.
simultaneously, waves will build to as high as 10 to 15 feet in the
central and eastern basins. a gale warning has been issued for the
entire lake to cover this situation.

westerly gales and significant wave heights should continue into the
wee hours of thursday morning. later on thursday, winds will
diminish as they veer to northwesterly and then northerly by
nightfall. in addition, waves will subside gradually. a small craft
advisory will likely be needed for a time on thursday following the
gales and before conditions improve drastically. much quieter marine
conditions are then expected thursday night through saturday.
northerly winds veer to northeasterly thursday night and then become
easterly with time on friday. these easterly winds should persist
friday night and saturday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory from 7 am wednesday to 4 am est thursday for
ohz003-006>013-017>022-027>032-036>038-047.
wind advisory from 10 am wednesday to 7 am est thursday for
ohz014-023-033-089.
pa...wind advisory from 10 am wednesday to 7 am est thursday for
paz001>003.
marine...low water advisory from 10 am wednesday to 4 am est thursday
for lez142>144-162>164.
gale warning from 7 am wednesday to 4 am est thursday for
lez142>147-162>167.
gale warning from 10 am wednesday to 7 am est thursday for
lez148-149-168-169.

&&

$$
synopsis...oudeman
near term...oudeman
short term...greenawalt/jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...oudeman
marine...jaszka

Links

I wonder if TBL's contract for the web that intends to make the web more civil will address alleged journalism. Is this the kind of uncivil content that TBL wants removed from the web? Or should users simply ignore what they don't like?

https://www.theroot.com/pete-buttigieg-is-a-lying-mf-1840038708


Y Combinator Abruptly Shutters YC China (techcrunch.com)
https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/21/y-combinator-abruptly-shutters-yc-china/
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21638723


Julia v1.3 (github.com)
https://github.com/JuliaLang/julia/blob/v1.3.0/NEWS.md
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21636661


"A Vegan Sued Burger King over Its ‘Impossible Whopper’ (bloomberg.com)"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-11-24/why-vegan-s-impossible-whopper-lawsuit-vs-burger-king-matters

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21633464

I'm not a vegan, but I eat and drink like a vegan. My diet over the past year is 99 percent plant-based, whole foods. At home, I occasionally eat sardines from a tin that I buy at the Phoenix Earth Food Co-op and Claudia's Health Food store. That's my one exception.

I like the Impossible burger and the Beyond Meat burger. Some of the eateries that we patronize in Toledo sell one of those products, and that's what I usually order.

And now Burger King offers the Impossible Whopper that I tried two weeks ago when driving three-plus hours north, and the sandwich tasted great. During the ordering, the employee asked if I had anything special I wanted, and I asked for no dair-related sauces. I guess that BK can spread mayor on the sandwich.

I ordered the Impossible Whopper with lettuce, tomato, onion, and pickle. No sauce-related condiments, such as ketchup.

When driving for hours, it's nice now to have this sandwich option available near the highway, although Burger King is not as prevalent as McDonald's. When traveling, I don't have time to hunt down a local eatery that offers something that I can eat, and I'm not going to make an exception by ordering some kind of meat product from McDonald's.

I cannot respect the vegan's views about not wearing wool. Even not eating honey is bizarre to me. I used honey today on my hot cereal. I enjoy supporting our local bee farmers. When it's available, I'll buy local maple syrup, but local honey is far more prevalent in the Toledo area than maple syrup. That might be due to our area being comprised of open farm land and not large woodland areas.

I wear wool. I like being outside year-round. I don't hide from the outdoors when the air temps dip below zero. Wool works better for me than anything else for keeping me warm.

I like to crochet, and I like to use wool when crocheting. I want to learn to spin my own wool yarn.

a plant-based, whole foods diet is longer to say, but it applies to me. After all, Oreo cookies and soda pop are vegan.

Vegan does not imply healthy nor should it imply environmentally friendly.

Militant vegans can ruin things for people who want to eat healthy.

I'm going to assume that it's true.

And I'm also going to say: If Burger King is forced to get a separate stove(or whatever it's called in the industrial-sized context they're in) just for that 1 burger, they will cancel that burger.

That's my prediction. Because it's too much of an up-front cost.

I'm very glad that this burger has entered the chain and is getting both the vegan/vegetarian community, as well as regular meat-eating people, like myself, in on it.

If people who eat meat start choosing this over a regular burger, it's a win. If this drives previously non-existing traffic to burger king, all of which uses this one product, it's a win.

This is about changing the industry at large. About creating big orders and showing the industry that this is worth investing in. And eventually: normalizing it.

We can solve the problem of the not-yet-vaporized grease particles later.

I'm not saying we should ignore it. I'm saying it's not a current priority. But it will be later.

I've tried the burger, and I liked it, I'll definitely pick it again.

HN reply:

I agree. I'm as vegan as I can be and still be a digital nomad but this seems like the lesser of two evils to me. I'd rather see this product stay on the market and introduce more people to the idea of eating less or even no meat.

I understand why some vegans are put off by the idea of eating something cooked on the same grill as actual meat but I think we need pragmatism more than anything right now.

Militant vegans can CHOOSE to ignore Burger King. Simple. The rest of us can choose to enjoy Burger King's Impossible Whopper.

HN comment:

"Don't Let the Perfect Be the Enemy of the Good"

Another comment:

For me biggest problem is meat smell inside of their restaurants. Most vegans don't like that. ;)

Then go elsewhere. It's a simple concept. Choose another eatery.

HN comment:

I am vegan and in general very aware how mainstream society marginalizes vegan choices, but this strikes me as both frivolous and damaging to the vegan cause more broadly.

It's a Burger King for god's sake - what do you expect? If you want the mainstream to embrace your values you don't want to damage the chances of increasing acceptance just because the ad copy wasn't a 100% accurate.


The ‘Silicon Six’ spread propaganda. It’s time to regulate social media sites (washingtonpost.com)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/11/25/silicon-six-spread-propaganda-its-time-regulate-social-media-sites/

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21639476

HN commenter suggested the counter view:

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20191122/00412943432/sacha-baron-cohen-is-wrong-about-social-media-wrong-about-section-230-even-wrong-about-his-own-comedy.shtml

from the that's-not-how-any-of-this-works dept

And, while I've seen some friends and colleagues celebrating aspects of his speech -- which is funny and entertaining and comes across as powerful -- it occurred to me that he's making the exact same mistake regarding social media/Section 230 as Jillette suggests (compellingly) that Cohen is making about what his comedy shows. He's getting it all backwards, blaming the wrong thing, and misunderstanding what's at the heart of the issue. Along the way, he also makes some factual mistakes. Indeed, it seems like while he's touching on some truths, and some realities about how people are using social media and how social media companies operate, he's so focused on the superficial aspects of it, that he's completely misunderstanding the deeper workings, motivations, and incentives at play.

What do all these dangerous trends have in common? I’m just a comedian and an actor, not a scholar. But one thing is pretty clear to me. All this hate and violence is being facilitated by a handful of internet companies that amount to the greatest propaganda machine in history.

That sounds good and many people believe this, but the facts simply don't support this. Earlier this year, we discussed Yochai Benkler's new book, the excellent Network Propaganda: Manipulation, Disinformation, and Radicalization in American Politics, which is filled with charts and data showing something pretty damn clearly: most of the disinformation and misinformation didn't go very far until it was "validated" by a mainstream news source, namely: Fox News. Yes, the lies and shams did start out on social media, but they were mostly ignored. Until Fox News validated them, then they spread like wildfire.

So while it's good that Cohen admits that he's not a scholar, "Network Propaganda" is written by three excellent scholars, and perhaps we should listen to them, rather than a comedian, on this subject?

Cohen's "solutions" to this are equally backwards and often silly. He spends much time going after Mark Zuckerberg in particular, which is fine, but he misunderstands or misrepresents nearly every point that he's talking about. Indeed, I'd argue that Cohen's attacks on Zuckerberg are just as "fake news" as some of the content he's complaining about. Cohen mocks Zuckerberg's point that choices Facebook makes are "choices... around free expression." There are many great criticisms of Zuckerberg's confused notions of free expression (if you want to read a good one I'd recommend Jameel Jaffer's Facebook and Free Speech Are Different Things). But Cohen's point is not that. He first makes a correct point, that Facebook is not the First Amendment and can make any decision it wants about who and what to host:

Zuckerberg claimed that new limits on what’s posted on social media would be to “pull back on free expression.” This is utter nonsense. The First Amendment says that “Congress shall make no law” abridging freedom of speech, however, this does not apply to private businesses like Facebook. We’re not asking these companies to determine the boundaries of free speech across society. We just want them to be responsible on their platforms.

But later in the speech he contradicts this point, twice over. First, despite claiming (correctly) that the 1st Amendment doesn't apply to Facebook's hosting decisions, later on he directly urges Congress to regulate speech on Facebook, which is very much prohibited by the 1st Amendment. Second, since so much of his argument is that Facebook and other internet companies need to be more aggressive in pulling down speech, you'd think he's support Section 230, which is what enables them to do so.

And his apparent shock that Section 230 was part of a law called the "Communications Decency Act" demonstrates his complete lack of knowledge of the history of the law -- and how it originated as a law for widespread censorship of the internet -- which was all thrown out as unconstitutional. Section 230 is all that remains. Perhaps someone should send him a copy of Jeff Kosseff's book, which explains all the history.

His claim about "internet companies can now be held responsible for pedophiles" seems to be a near total misreading of last year's passing of FOSTA, which added an exception to Section 230 for sex trafficking (not for pedophilia). And, of course, as we've pointed out way too many times, Section 230 has never protected sites from federal criminal charges in the first place.

The final point is also nonsense: how, exactly, is Mark Zuckerberg supposed to prevent everyone from misusing Facebook (to avoid apparent jail time)? Cohen's answer in the speech is a mixture of ignorance and nonsense. He suggests hiring as many people as it takes... and also not posting stuff to the internet until it's been reviewed.

It only seems fair to say to Facebook, YouTube and Twitter: your product is defective, you are obliged to fix it, no matter how much it costs and no matter how many moderators you need to employ.

But that assumes, falsely, there there is a solution that is just "hire more moderators." This is a riff on the standard "nerd harder" idea, but it's equally nonsensical. We're right back to the Masnick Impossibility Theorem. He's assuming there's some optimal level of content moderation that can be reached by just throwing more resources at it. There is not. He might as well be suggesting that the answer to all the bigots in the world is for Hollywood to hire more Sacha Baron Cohens until they expose them all. It's a silly suggestion that makes no sense.

Here's the problem: the assumption here is that it's these internet companies that are "defective" rather than human nature and society itself.

Some people are bad and behave badly. But many more are wonderful, and the internet has enabled them to connect and communicate as well, often in much greater numbers, and enabled them to do even more powerful things for good.

Because, as Jillette points out, most people are, in fact, pretty good deep down inside. Let's not throw the internet "down the well" because some people misuse it. Let's use the internet to spread more good ideas, better help people who need it, and focus on realistic ways to stop hatred, rather than fantastical ideas that sound like they came from the mind of "wanna-be-gangsta Ali G" rather than "brilliant" Sacha Baron Cohen.

HN comment:

I think there are huge issues with the argument that these six people are ruining the world and the solution is to replace them with six other people to tell you how to think.

Government regulation is a bad idea because the government won't stop with regulating only six services. Once the government gets a taste, they will overreach.

If users are that upset, then they need to decide to stop using those services. But millions and billions of users have no problem with these services. That might encourage the silos to make real positive changes.

Even before the web got invented around 1990, we were gullible to bogus narratives. It only occurs faster and easier now, thanks to technology.


Relentlessly Simplify (den.dev)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21629806

Tiktok User Banned for Talking About China's Uighur 'Concentration Camps' (newsweek.com)
https://www.newsweek.com/tiktok-user-claims-banned-posting-china-concentration-camps-1474119
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21644238

Ohio school districts sue Facebook for accepting ECOT ad purchases (dispatch.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21642022

https://ruben.verborgh.org/articles/the-semantic-web-identity-crisis/

Google Fires Four Workers, Including Staffer Tied to Protest (bloomberg.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21636583

Lisp-Flavored Programming Languages (github.com)
https://github.com/dundalek/awesome-lisp-languages
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21625848

Twitter prepares for cull of inactive users (bbc.co.uk)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21644230

I wonder what will happen to the twitter accounts of folks who have passed away? Eg. Aaron Swartz: https://twitter.com/aaronsw https://twitter.com/aaronsw_hv

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