Links and Notes - Fri, Sep 13, 2019

5:37 p.m.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued September 13 at 5:27PM EDT until September 13 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Cleveland

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR OTTAWA...ERIE...SANDUSKY AND FAR EASTERN LUCAS COUNTIES...
At 527 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 12 miles northwest of Port Clinton to near Oak Harbor
to near Gibsonburg, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.
Locations impacted include...
Sandusky, Fremont, Port Clinton, Kelleys Island, Put-In-Bay, Clyde,
Oak Harbor, Gibsonburg, Genoa, Woodville, Elmore, Green Springs,
Ballville, Catawba Island, Marblehead, Bay View, Risingsun, Lindsey,
Rocky Ridge and Clay Center.
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

5:04 p.m.

Weather radio alarm sounding ... Cle NWS issued a STW for parts of Lucas, Ottawa, Sandusky, and Erie counties.

4:53 p.m.

Radar loop showed the strongest part of the cell moved through Lucas County, south of I-475.

Light rain continues to fall over West Toledo.

4:47 p.m.

It seems that the strongest part of the cell is located over downtown Toledo. The Cle NWS considered it severe.

Radar looks fine for West Toledo, I think. We had a brief period of light to moderate rain and a very brief moment of heavy rain.

4:45 p.m.

severe weather statement
national weather service cleveland oh
444 pm edt fri sep 13 2019

ohc095-173-132130-
/o.con.kcle.sv.w.0214.000000t0000z-190913t2130z/
wood oh-lucas oh-
444 pm edt fri sep 13 2019

...a severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 530 pm edt
for northern wood and lucas counties...

at 443 pm edt, a severe thunderstorm was located near toledo, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

hazard...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

source...radar indicated.

impact...minor damage to vehicles is possible. expect damage to
trees and power lines.

locations impacted include...
toledo, swanton, perrysburg, oregon, sylvania, rossford, waterville,
northwood, whitehouse, holland, maumee, ottawa hills, walbridge,
millbury, haskins, grand rapids, harbor view and neapolis.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

for your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

lat...lon 4161 8388 4173 8374 4173 8345 4172 8347
4172 8341 4174 8338 4175 8332 4173 8327
4162 8338 4162 8342 4157 8343 4139 8388
time...mot...loc 2043z 245deg 35kt 4168 8351

hail...1.00in
wind...60mph

4:43 p.m.

Light rain falling now. Winds have been light to moderate, under 20 mph, about what the wind was doing during the day before the storms approached.

About an hour ago:

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Sep 13, 2019 3:52 pm EDT
Weather : Thunderstorm in Vicinity
Temperature : 89 F
Humidity : 52%
Wind Speed : SSW 16 mph
Wind Gust 24 mph
Barometer : 29.96 in
Dewpoint: 69 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 94 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Sep 13, 2019 3:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 91 F
Humidity : 46%
Wind Speed : SSW 18 mph
Wind Gust 33 mph
Barometer : 29.98 in
Dewpoint: 67 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 95 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Sep 13, 2019 3:57 pm EDT
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 89 F
Humidity : 48%
Wind Speed : SSW 13 mph
Wind Gust 25 mph
Barometer : 29.97 in
Dewpoint: 67 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 92 F

4:42 p.m.

Rain intensity has already decreased. It's a nice soaking for the tomatoes and the new lawn grass that's growing on our former produce garden rectangle area.

4:41 p.m.

Moderate rain and now quickly to heavy rain is falling. More like very heavy rain. I think that this downpour will be short-lived, according to radar.

4:39 p.m.

Weather radio alarm sounding ... Cle NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Wood County. The storm was located near Weston, which is near Bowling Green.

I think the heaviest part of the cell moving through Lucas County is located a little south of us.

4:38 p.m

Light rain falling. A lot of thunder occurring. And a Scissor-grinder Cicada sang.

4:34 p.m.

Light to moderate rainfall now. A lot of thunder. Low light. Our garage lights are on. The sky looks overcast, light to medium grey color. Nothing ominous looking.

4:30 p.m.

According to radar, West Toledo will receive at least moderate to heavy rainfall. It has been sprinkling or light raining for a few minutes.

4:26 p.m.

Weather radio alarm sounding again. Three straight alarm messages without a break.

N. IN. NWS issued a STW for parts of Henry and Fulton counties.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
OHC051-069-132100-
/O.NEW.KIWX.SV.W.0160.190913T2025Z-190913T2100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
425 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4124 8403 4133 8401 4142 8419 4158 8388
4128 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 249DEG 53KT 4144 8416 4134 8396 4118 8407

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

FISHER

4:25 p.m.

Weather radio alarm sounding ... Cle NWS issued a Special Marine Warning for our end of the lake.

4:23 p.m.

Weather radio alarm sounding ... Cle NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for northern Wood County and all of Lucas County.


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
OHC095-173-132130-
/O.NEW.KCLE.SV.W.0214.190913T2023Z-190913T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
423 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4169 8388 4172 8386 4173 8362 4173 8345
4172 8347 4172 8341 4174 8338 4175 8331
4173 8327 4162 8338 4162 8342 4158 8342
4157 8343 4139 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 245DEG 31KT 4160 8376

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

Clark

4:15 p.m.

Here's the statement for Lucas County.


special weather statement
national weather service cleveland oh
408 pm edt fri sep 13 2019

ohz003-132100-
lucas-
408 pm edt fri sep 13 2019

...a strong thunderstorm will affect lucas county...

at 408 pm edt, a strong thunderstorm was located near swanton, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

locations impacted include...
toledo, swanton, oregon, sylvania, waterville, northwood, whitehouse,
holland, maumee, ottawa hills, berkey and neapolis.

if outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

this storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the national weather service.

a severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 pm edt for
northwestern ohio.

lat...lon 4171 8388 4172 8385 4173 8356 4162 8346
4161 8347 4162 8357 4157 8362 4155 8368
4152 8371 4145 8388
time...mot...loc 2008z 236deg 30kt 4155 8394

$$

sefcovic

4:11 p.m.

Thundering.

4:09 p.m.

Cle NWS issued a Special Weather Statement for Lucas County for a cell, located near Swanton, but I cannot find the statement. The cell appears to be located over southeast Fulton County, entering Lucas County, moving northeast.

4:06 p.m.

Weather radio alarm sounding ... N. IN. NWS issued a STW for western Ohio for a storm, located near Defiance.

It's now cloudy here or the sun is now blocked by western clouds.

Date and Time: 04:00 PM, Fri, Sep 13, 2019
Summary: Partly Cloudy
Air Temp: 89 F
Dew Point: 68 F
Humidity: 50 %
Wind Direction: Southwest
Wind Speed: 11 mph
Wind Gust: 14 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 93 F
Pressure: 29.96 inches
UV Index: Moderate : 4.0
Cloud Cover: 25 % : Mostly Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 3 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: Northwest

3:53 p.m.

The weather radio alarm sounded. Det/Pon NWS issued a STW for Monroe County. Radar showed three large cells over Monroe County, stretching from the northeast corner of the county back to the southwest corner.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MIC115-163-132030-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0078.190913T1951Z-190913T2030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
351 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Newport, Melvindale, Gibraltar, Erie, New Boston, Woodland Beach,
Stony Point, Bolles Harbor, Rockwood and Samaria.

People attending Flat Rock Riverfest should seek safe shelter
immediately!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 8346 4173 8346 4172 8376 4196 8377
4209 8358 4209 8354 4212 8354 4215 8349
4236 8334 4245 8283 4236 8288 4232 8306
4229 8309 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8314
4190 8326 4190 8330 4182 8337 4172 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 243DEG 41KT 4236 8327 4217 8329 4184 8367

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

3:48 p.m.

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for western Paulding County. A cell over Paulding County could hit Lucas County, but the cell that cause the warning has weakened, and the warning was cancelled. The warning was issued a while ago.

3:36 p.m.

Radar showed the line of showers and thunderstorms over western Fulton and northwest Henry counties. Nothing else has been warned, since the Lenawee County storm. The line does not look bad on radar.

3:02 p.m.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Sep 13, 2019 2:52 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 92 F
Humidity : 49%
Wind Speed : S 15 mph
Wind Gust 23 mph
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 70 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 98 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Sep 13, 2019 2:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fair and Breezy
Temperature : 91 F
Humidity : 50%
Wind Speed : SSW 22 mph
Wind Gust 28 mph
Barometer : 30.01 in
Dewpoint: 70 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 97 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Sep 13, 2019 2:55 pm EDT
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 90 F
Humidity : 50%
Wind Speed : SSW 15 mph
Wind Gust 22 mph
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 69 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 95 F

Date and Time: 03:00 PM, Fri, Sep 13, 2019
Summary: Partly Cloudy
Air Temp: 90 F
Dew Point: 69 F
Humidity: 51 %
Wind Direction: Southwest
Wind Speed: 9 mph
Wind Gust: 14 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 94 F
Pressure: 30.00 inches
UV Index: High : 6.0
Cloud Cover: 19 % : Mostly Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 19 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: North-Northwest

2:58 p.m.

Det/Pon NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning that covers northeast Lenawee County and part of Washtenaw County. This is the first warning issued within the watch box area that covers parts of MI, IN, and OH.

2:55 p.m.

A strong-looking cell exists between Jackson and Ann Arbor. It's not warned.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0652.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0652_warnings.gif

2:45 p.m.

Weather radio alarm sounded. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 9:00 p.m. that covers southeast Michigan and northwest Ohio, including the Toledo area.

severe thunderstorm watch outline update for ws 652
nws storm prediction center norman ok
245 pm edt fri sep 13 2019

severe thunderstorm watch 652 is in effect until 900 pm edt
for the following locations

ohc003-033-039-043-051-063-069-077-095-123-125-137-143-147-161-
171-173-175-140100-
/o.new.kwns.sv.a.0652.190913t1845z-190914t0100z/

oh
. ohio counties included are

allen crawford defiance
erie fulton hancock
henry huron lucas
ottawa paulding putnam
sandusky seneca van wert
williams wood wyandot

2:41 p.m.

Our weather is sunny and breezy. The sky is hazy with only a small percentage of cumulus clouds.

Our Sawtooth Sunflowers started blooming Wednesday and Thursday of this week. A small group exists near the back door. A larger group exists in the middle oval bed. Some stalks are around seven feet tall.

Some goldenrod stalks are at least six feet tall. The goldenrod is at peak bloom. Yesterday, I estimated over 40 bumblebees foraged on the golden yellow blooming goldenrod. The plant looks great right now. The bee activity was great. I did not see any honey bees.

Our catmint plants have been producing blooms again. It's an interesting plant. It first started blooming in April or May, and it has produced occasional blooms throughout the summer and now the fall. We have had catmint for many years.

Comet enjoyed the catmint when I let him outside as a treat. Comet did not roam the neighborhood. He did not roam the backyard. He stayed close to the backdoor. Venturing to the catmint plants was a long stroll for Comet. He liked the leaves, of course. He rubbed his face on the leaves. He passed away in May of 2010. He enjoyed the catmint that spring one last time.

After the May blooming period, it seems that the catmint blooms have been smaller and more subtle. The blooms were more obvious in the spring.

We still have some one or two hostas that bloomed late.

Our seedum plants contain a mix-color of blooms from the light maroon-pink to the darker maroon-pink.

Bees and other insects visit the seedum, goldenrod, sawtooth sunflowers, and the catmint.

We also now have one small cluster of short Tall Coreopsis plants that started blooming this week. I did not realize that the plants existed. The plants are growing along the driveway in the Oak Openings Region native flower plant bed. The plants were shrouded by the goldenrod and the tomato plants that are growing in containers along the edge of the driveway.

I still have not picked any more tomatoes to eat. Only the one from a week or two ago. The stalks contain a lot of green tomatoes, but many have still formed the dark area along the bottoms.

2:35 p.m.

2:33 p.m. radar loop shows the forming line stretching from a little southwest of Ann Arbor to through extreme northwest Ohio to near Kokomo, IN, which is located two or three counties southwest of Fort Wayne. The line is not solid. It's scattered cells of different sizes.

2:30 p.m.

New MD issued by the SPC. It appears that for a storm to impact Toledo, it will follow the Maumee River. Anything forming in the Fort Wayne, IN area may hit Lucas County. And currently, a small cell has formed barely north of Fort Wayne. Activity is increasing rapidly.

md 1973 concerning severe potential...watch likely for northeast indiana...southeast lower michigan through northern ohio

mesoscale discussion 1973
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0121 pm cdt fri sep 13 2019

areas affected...northeast indiana...southeast lower michigan
through northern ohio

concerning...severe potential...watch likely

valid 131821z - 131945z

probability of watch issuance...80 percent

summary...thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity
from northeast in southeast lower mi through northwest oh this
afternoon posing a threat for mainly damaging wind and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes. trends are being monitored for a ww.

discussion...latest radar data show a few thunderstorms have
developed within a zone of weak pre-frontal convergence across
extreme northeast in through southeast lower mi. downstream from
this activity, diabatic warming of the moist surface layer with
temperatures rising through the 80s has boosted mlcape to 1000-1500
j/kg and further destabilization is likely this afternoon. storms
should continue developing within this zone of weak pre-frontal
convergence from northeast in through southeast lower mi and spread
east through northwest oh. while stronger winds aloft accompanying a
progressive shortwave trough will remain north and west of the zone
of thunderstorm development, 0-6 km shear from 30-40 kt will be
sufficient for organized storms including a few supercells and
bowing segments. tendency has been for low-level winds to veer in
warm sector which will should limit size of low-level hodographs
with 0-1 km storm relative helicity generally less than 150 m2/s2.
this suggests the primary threat should be locally strong to
damaging gusts, through a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

..dial/grams.. 09/13/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...iwx...grr...

lat...lon 41088528 42178407 43408328 43628276 42708230 41448218
40738350 40638497 41088528

2:26 p.m.

Over the past 40 minutes, thunderstorms have rapidly formed over northeast IN, extreme northwest OH, and over Lenawee County in southeast MI.

No headlines anywhere yet. The Lenawee County storms formed over the past 20 minutes, and these appear to be the strongest. Cells were moving to the northeast.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Sep 13, 2019 1:52 pm EDT
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 91 F
Humidity : 50%
Wind Speed : SSW 15 mph
Wind Gust 22 mph
Barometer : 30.03 in
Dewpoint: 70 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 97 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Sep 13, 2019 1:53 pm EDT
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 88 F
Humidity : 54%
Wind Speed : WSW 20 mph
Wind Gust 25 mph
Barometer : 30.05 in
Dewpoint: 69 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 93 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Sep 13, 2019 1:55 pm EDT
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 89 F
Humidity : 52%
Wind Speed : SSW 12 mph
Wind Gust 18 mph
Barometer : 30.03 in
Dewpoint: 69 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 94 F

1:32 p.m.

We are still under a Slight Risk for severe weather today.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and now today have had summer-like temps. Dew points today were in the low 70s.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Sep 13, 2019 12:52 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 88 F
Humidity : 57%
Wind Speed : SSW 9 mph
Wind Gust 20 mph
Barometer : 30.05 in
Dewpoint: 71 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 94 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Sep 13, 2019 12:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 88 F
Humidity : 55%
Wind Speed : SSW 16 mph
Wind Gust 23 mph
Barometer : 30.06 in
Dewpoint: 70 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 93 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Sep 13, 2019 12:58 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 88 F
Humidity : 55%
Wind Speed : SSW 13 mph
Wind Gust 17 mph
Barometer : 30.05 in
Dewpoint: 70 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 93 F


day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1127 am cdt fri sep 13 2019

valid 131630z - 141200z

...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms southeast lower mi
to northern oh...

...summary...
scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe
hail are possible across southeast lower michigan into northern ohio
through about 9 pm edt.

...mi/oh/in...
an upper low over northwest on will evolve into an open wave while
moving northeastward towards james bay, as embedded speed maxima
rotate around the southeastern periphery of the low. at the
surface, a cold front arcing into far southwest lower mi to the
wabash valley will progress east across the rest of in/lower mi.
thick overcast and residual stratiform rain have tempered
destabilization ahead of the front across most of lower mi, except
across the southeast portion with nearly cloud-free insolation
occurring from there southward across much of oh and eastern in.
surface temperatures were already warming through the 80s and will
reach the low 90s across most of oh where surface dew points should
mix down into the low 60s. a confined corridor of upper 60s dew
points should remain near the front and where boundary-layer mixing
is not quite as pronounced across southeast lower mi.

scattered storms are expected to develop in the next couple hours
near the front, and then continue eastward across lake erie and
parts of northern oh into this evening. despite being on the
southeast periphery of the upper great lakes mid-level jet, largely
unidirectional/veered wind profiles should hold effective shear to
between 25-40 kts. the greatest potential for supercells will exist
across southeast lower mi where the low-level hodograph should be
adequately enlarged, yielding a short-duration risk for a couple
tornadoes before surface winds veer. modest mid-level lapse rates
will probably limit hail magnitudes. scattered damaging winds should
be the primary hazard with this threat likely diminishing shortly
after dusk.

...western nc into sc...
strong surface heating and lingering low-level moisture along and
southwest of a reinforcing frontal surge could provide some focus
for thunderstorm development this afternoon. thermodynamic profiles
will favor some risk for damaging downbursts given dcape values near
1000 j/kg. minimal deep-layer shear will temper the potential for
organized clustering.

..grams/dial.. 09/13/2019

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 2000z

10:17 a.m.

The SPC showed the Lake Erie West region under a Slight Risk for severe weather today.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Sep 13, 2019 9:52 am EDT
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 76 F
Humidity : 76%
Wind Speed : S 6 mph
Barometer : 30.09 in
Dewpoint: 68 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Sep 13, 2019 9:53 am EDT
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 74 F
Humidity : 84%
Wind Speed : S 8 mph
Barometer : 30.11 in
Dewpoint: 69 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Sep 13, 2019 9:58 am EDT
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 76 F
Humidity : 79%
Wind Speed : S 6 mph
Barometer : 30.10 in
Dewpoint: 69 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles


Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Sep 13, 2019 8:52 am EDT
Weather : Mostly Cloudy with Haze
Temperature : 71 F
Humidity : 84%
Wind Speed : W 3 mph
Barometer : 30.09 in
Dewpoint: 66 F
Visibility : 6.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Sep 13, 2019 8:53 am EDT
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 68 F
Humidity : 93%
Wind Speed : SE 6 mph
Barometer : 30.11 in
Dewpoint: 66 F
Visibility : 5.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Sep 13, 2019 8:55 am EDT
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 71 F
Humidity : 87%
Wind Speed : ESE 3 mph
Barometer : 30.10 in
Dewpoint: 67 F
Visibility : 7.00 statute miles


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Sep 13, 2019 9:07 am

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Southeast wind 6 to 15 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 60. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 76. Southwest wind 5 to 11 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 80.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 84.


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
634 am edt fri sep 13 2019

lez061-142>149-162>169-ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-paz003-141045-
lake erie open waters from ripley to buffalo ny-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie open waters from willowick to geneva-on-the-lake oh-
lake erie open waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie open waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-ashtabula inland-
hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-wyandot-crawford-
richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
ashtabula lakeshore-
634 am edt fri sep 13 2019

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie, north central
ohio, northeast ohio, northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, mainly across northern ohio. damaging winds are the primary
threat, with an isolated tornado threat possible.

.days two through seven...saturday through thursday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.


day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0739 am cdt fri sep 13 2019

valid 131300z - 141200z

...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening from southeast lower mi into northern oh...

...summary...
a few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are expected from
southeast lower michigan into northern ohio this afternoon.

...southeast lower mi into in/oh this afternoon/evening...
a midlevel low over northern mn is evolving into an open wave while
moving northeastward towards james bay, as embedded speed maxima
rotate around the southeastern periphery of the low. at the
surface, a cold front will progress eastward across in/lower mi
during the day, and the warm sector will spread northeastward into
southeast lower mi ahead of the front. a corridor of surface
heating is expected from in/oh into southeast lower mi, to the
southeast of the thicker clouds associated with ongoing
(pre-frontal) convection from northeast il to central lower mi.

midlevel lapse rates will remain rather modest (less than 7 c/km)
within the warm sector today. still, surface temperatures warming
to near 80 f in southeast lower mi and well into the 80s across
in/oh, in combination with 68-70 f boundary-layer dewpoints, will
result in mlcape of 1000-1500 j/kg. storms are expected to form by
early afternoon from northeast in into southeast lower mi, and then
continue eastward across northern oh into this evening. diurnal
destabilization will coincide with an increase in midlevel
flow/vertical shear, which will support both organized storm
clusters/supercells along the cold front with a primary threat for
damaging winds. a low-end tornado threat is expected from southeast
lower mi into northern oh where low-level shear/hodograph curvature
will be greater near the surface warm front this afternoon/evening.
the severe threat will diminish to the south in conjunction with
weakening vertical shear.

...western nc into sc this afternoon...
strong surface heating and lingering low-level moisture along and
southwest of a reinforcing frontal surge could provide some focus
for thunderstorm development this afternoon. thermodynamic profiles
will favor some potential for isolated damaging downbursts given
dcape values near 1000 j/kg.

...southeast fl coast today...
convection with gusty winds will be possible along the southeast fl
coast, where northeasterly low-level winds will increase to about 30
kt around the northwest periphery of a tropical disturbance near the
southeast bahamas. moist profiles, however, should limit the
potential stronger/damaging outflow winds.

..thompson/gleason.. 09/13/2019

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630z


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
909 am edt fri sep 13 2019

.synopsis...
a warm front will lift north through the area today. low
pressure will move northeast across the upper great lakes today,
forcing a cold front across the area tonight. high pressure
will build across the region this weekend. another cold front
will move through the region early next week.

&&

.near term /through saturday/...
the current forecast is on track. low clouds are in place over
nw oh and parts of ne oh and nw pa. southeast flow is eroding
cloud cover so improvements should occur within the next hour
or two. i will monitor temperatures as highs have busted
guidance over the last few days. no changes with this update.

original discussion...
main focus of the near term forecast is thunderstorm potential
this afternoon/evening, with strong to severe storms possible. a
warm front will lift north through the area today, allowing for
a more unstable airmass to recover northward through northern
ohio this morning and afternoon. strong low pressure over
northern mn will lift northeast through western ontario today,
forcing a cold front west to east across the local area from
late afternoon through the overnight. precip potential will
increase through the day today as the instability builds
northward, and a robust mid level jet moves east through the
great lakes. the primary focus for convection will be
immediately along/ahead of the cold front, with guidance
consistent in depicting this solution for several days. the
high-res guidance also hints at some development along and just
behind the warm front from cleveland south to canton late
afternoon/early evening, with some decent low level theta-e
pooling, strong low level lapse rates, and increasing deep layer
shear with the arrival of the mid/upper jet. spc has highlighted
most of the area in a marginal risk for severe storms with the
day 1 outlook, with a slight risk confined to far northwest oh,
including the toledo and bowling green areas. models continue to
indicate that the best mlcape will pool immediately ahead of the
cold front in in into western oh this afternoon, generally on a
downtrend as it moves into the forecast area into the evening.
another pool of higher mlcape resides with the theta-e max with
the warm front, with 1000-2000 j/kg possible. the question of
development with the warm front for the eastern half of the area
this afternoon is whether or not the forcing is strong enough to
initiate convection, with the best forcing westward along the
cold front. if convection materializes near the warm front,
increasing 0-1km bulk shear, modest 0-1km srh and low sblcl`s
near 500m could increase the potential for tornado activity,
although this threat is highly conditional on timing and forcing
for convection to develop in this region in the first place.
otherwise, more organized convection with the front does pose a
threat for damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado.

aside from convection, the increasing low level flow late
afternoon/early evening will contribute to a good downsloping
setup across erie pa, with wind gusts expected to increase to
near 50 mph for a period of time this evening. have opted to
hoist a wind advisory to cover this threat.

the front will push east across the area tonight, with precip
ending from west to east early saturday morning. dry conditions
are anticipated saturday as high pressure builds across the
area. temperatures today will reach the upper 80s south and west
of the warm front across northern oh, with upper 70s to low 80s
east/north of the front. have went higher than most guidance,
which continues to be consistently too cold in this current
pattern. would not be surprised to see several sites hit 90
today if enough insolation occurs and convection delays until
peak heating occurs. temps will be cooler saturday in the mid
70s to around 80.

&&

.short term /saturday night through monday night/...
high pressure will ridge into the region saturday night but will be
nudged eastward on sunday as another storm system moves into the
central great lakes. this area of low pressure appears that it will
be weakening as it moves eastward so have not gone more than slight
chance to chance pop`s over the northern portions of the cwa onto
the lake. a cold front should cross the lake early monday morning as
an upper level ridge begins to build to the west of the region.

sunday will see highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. slightly cooler
in the wake of the cold front on monday with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.long term /tuesday through thursday/...
high pressure is expected at the surface and aloft through the long
term so expect dry conditions. temperatures will remain near to
slightly above seasonal averages.

&&

.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
a warm front will lift north through ohio during the first half
of the taf period. some mvfr/ifr stratus will impact a few of
the terminals over the next few hours before general
lifting/erosion of the stratus takes place as winds begin to
veer southerly and the front moves north, as already indicated
by recent satellite trends through the early morning hours. a
cold front will move east into the area late in the taf period.
a line of shra/tsra is expected along/ahead of this line, which
has a good shot of impacting most of the terminals beginning
around 22z and continuing through 06z to 08z from west to east.
winds will veer southerly to southwest through the day ahead of
the cold front. some gusts in excess of 30 kts are possible
after 21z at keri with a good downsloping setup.

.outlook...non-vfr possible in showers sunday afternoon into
monday.

&&

.marine...
east winds will gradually shift to the southeast today as a warm
front lifts toward the lake. the warm front may briefly lift north
of the lake this evening allowing for winds to shift to the
southwest and south for a few hours. this southerly shift may become
strong enough from geneva-on-the-lake to ripley to warrant a small
craft advisory during the evening. later shifts will need to take a
look at this closely. a cold front will cross the lake this evening
with winds shifting to the west. a ridge of high pressure arrives
for the weekend. weak low pressure will move east across the great
lakes sunday night with a trailing cold front settling south across
lake erie monday morning.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...wind advisory from 6 pm this evening to 3 am edt saturday for
paz001-002.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...greenawalt
near term...garnet/greenawalt
short term...mm
long term...mm
aviation...greenawalt
marine...mm


nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
948 am edt fri sep 13 2019

for waters within five nautical miles of shore

waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

lez142-143-132015-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
948 am edt fri sep 13 2019

.this afternoon...southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early.
a chance of showers and thunderstorms late. waves 1 to 3 feet.
.tonight...southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. showers
and thunderstorms likely in the evening. waves 1 to 3 feet.
.saturday...west winds 10 to 15 knots. sunny. waves 1 to 3 feet
subsiding to 1 foot or less.
.saturday night...west winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest
less than 10 knots. mostly clear. waves 1 foot or less.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees, off cleveland 71
degrees, and off erie 72 degrees.

$$

lez144>147-132015-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-
the lake oh-
948 am edt fri sep 13 2019

.this afternoon...southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south
15 to 20 knots. a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
early. a chance of showers and thunderstorms late.
waves 2 feet or less.
.tonight...south winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to
15 knots. showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a
chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. waves 1 to 3 feet.
.saturday...west winds 10 to 15 knots. sunny. waves 1 to 3 feet.
.saturday night...west winds 5 to 15 knots. mostly clear. waves
1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees, off cleveland 71
degrees, and off erie 72 degrees.

$$

lez148-149-132015-
lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
948 am edt fri sep 13 2019

...small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm edt this evening
through saturday afternoon...

.this afternoon...southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to
15 to 20 knots. a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
waves 2 feet or less.
.tonight...south winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots.
showers and thunderstorms. waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to
5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. waves occasionally around
6 feet.
.saturday...southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. a
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. waves 1 to
3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
.saturday night...west winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest.
mostly clear. waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees, off cleveland 71
degrees, and off erie 72 degrees.

$$

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https://mediagazer.com/190913/p4#a190913p4

Facebook expands Today In, its local info service, to 6K+ US towns; it now works with 1.2K local news orgs with local news Page interactions up 26% YoY

https://facebookjournalismproject.com/article/facebook-expanding-today-in/

But does it translate into more subscription to local news orgs?

https://www.niemanlab.org/2019/09/researchers-analyzed-more-than-300000-local-news-stories-on-facebook-heres-what-they-found/

Sports stories were the tops.

-30-