Links and Notes - Fri, Sep 6, 2019

12:35 p.m.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Sep 6, 2019 11:52 am EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 68 F
Humidity : 61%
Wind Speed : SSW 5 mph
Barometer : 29.92 in
Dewpoint: 54 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Sep 6, 2019 11:53 am EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 70 F
Humidity : 57%
Wind Speed : SSW 9 mph
Barometer : 29.92 in
Dewpoint: 54 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Sep 6, 2019 12:16 pm EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 71 F
Humidity : 55%
Wind Speed : SW 6 mph
Barometer : 29.91 in
Dewpoint: 54 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

12:24 p.m.

I arrived at Best Buy at 12:00 p.m. to buy ink for our printer, which will permit me to print our damn tax returns and snail mail them to the IRS and the state of Ohio to get our refunds. I cannot obtain a personal protection identification number from the IRS, which means I cannot file electronically. The bright side is that this will be the last time that I do our taxes. We will pay someone or some service to complete and file our taxes. I'm done. This is the fourth straight year that I have to go the paper and snail mail route. The only time that we use the printer is to print taxes. Naturally, the ink dries up, requiring new ink every year. $46 to buy a package of black and color ink. The monthly siren test occurred at Noon too. I drove past a spot that had a siren and the blast startled me.

While I was inside Best Buy, Dr. Graber called me. He said Barney did fine and is doing fine. I can pick him up after 3:00 p.m. He thinks that he got all of the mass. It went up underneath the eyelid farther than expected. Barney has an incision that required two sutures that will be removed in 14 days. The mass will be sent off for a biopsy. Dr. Graber suspects that it is cancerous. He will know more about it when the results return, which could be next week or the week after. And then we will learn next steps.

He gave Barney an antibiotic that should last for 14 days. I will need to apply eye drops three times a day for an unknown length of time. I will continue to give the antiflammatory pill once a day that I started on Wednesday. And I think that I will need to give some other medicine to Barney too, but I don't remember. The vet techs will show me how to apply eye drops.

10:05 a.m.

At 10:03 a.m., I received another text from the vet. This one included a photo of Barney away, and lounging, looking toward the phone. The text was made to sound like it came from Barney.

I'm still a little sleepy but I'll be ready to go home anytime after 2pm.

9:14 a.m.

At 9:10 a.m., I received a text from the vet that said:

Barney did great and is now in recovery.

7:44 a.m.

Barney and I went out our front door at 7:00 a.m. I walked Barney for five minutes between the two nearby side streets. He peed on the usual spots, such as the neighbor's rock wall and a twig of leaves resting on the devil's strip.

Then I put Barney into the car and we left at 7:05 a.m. He stood in the backseat on the passenger's side, but I forgot to put that window down as we drove to Laskey. Barney sat down and looked me a couple times. Finally, it hit me.

I rolled down his window on Laskey near Secor to allow Barney some head-out-the-window time. Of course, he stood on the back seat with his front paws on the door arm rest, I think. The air pushed his short hair on his head and face back, giving his small, round head a sleek, aerodynamic look.

We drove past Graber's vet place, located at Secor and Laskey. I turned south on a neighborhood side street to allow Barney more air time. I drove a few blocks south, turned west, and then took the next side street north back to Laskey.

Then I drove to Graber's. Barney had five to seven minutes of air time with his head by or out the window. I took Barney inside the vet's, and I scratched and petted his head before the technician took him.

Before we left the house this morning, I got on the floor with him in the dining room, and I petted and rubbed his head, face, and back, and I snuggled close to him. His short, soft hair felt nice. I get a little worried when an old pet like Barney has to receive anesthesia.

This morning, Barney will have the small growth on his lower right eyelid removed. Hopefully, it's only a cyst. Problem though is that yesterday when I did not have the flotation-like device around his neck to keep him from rubbing his eye, the small mass seemed to be bleeding. Something was bleeding. I noticed blood around the mass and on his hair near his nose.

If it's a cyst, would it bleed? Obviously, the vet doctor will determine what's bleeding when they remove it. If they suspect that it's cancerous, then they will send it out for testing.

On my drive home from the vet, the eastern lower part of the sky was lit up with in a bright peach-orange color with some lower clouds colored a dark blue-grey. The orange was not a flaming orange but a little muted, but it the color was still vivid.

The vet office will text me when Barney's surgery has finished. Then when he's feeling more alert, they will text me a photo. I should be able to pick up Barney after 2:00 p.m.


On Wed, Sep 4, I picked a red-ripe tomato from our backyard. The first good tomato, although it had a small dark spot on the bottom. Yesterday, Sep 5, Deb and I shared the tomato. It tasted great. It would be nice to have a bunch of those.

Our tomato plants are San Marzano, grown from seeds from Italy. Joe V brought back the seeds from a vacation trip to Italy. He started the tomatoes from seeds in an egg carton. Deb brought home the carton in approx mid-June. The tiny plants were only one to two inches tall. I have nine containers, holding the plants. Some of the plants have multiple stalks. Maybe that's due to multiple seeds growing near each other. The plants are now four to five feet tall. This week, I removed a lot of yellowed leaves that grew in the lower levels of the plants.

---

7:29 a.m.

TOL:
Sep 6, 2019 6:52 am EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 53 F
Humidity : 90%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 29.98 in
Dewpoint: 50 F
Visibility : 8.00 statute miles


https://www.facebook.com/sampsoncounty/

Wilmington, NC

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Sep 6, 2019 6:17 am

Today: A slight chance of showers after 9am. Increasing clouds, with a high near 73. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northwest wind 3 to 7 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.


Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Sep 6, 2019 5:52 am EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 55 F
Humidity : 86%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 29.98 in
Dewpoint: 51 F
Visibility : 9.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Sep 6, 2019 5:53 am EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 56 F
Humidity : 86%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.00 in
Dewpoint: 52 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Sep 6, 2019 6:36 am EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 53 F
Humidity : 90%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 29.98 in
Dewpoint: 50 F
Visibility : 7.00 statute miles


Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 52...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

Corrected direction to Cape Lookout

...EYE OF DORIAN PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT...
...HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...34.6N 76.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM E OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
Warning from South Santee River, SC to Little River Inlet.

The Storm Surge Warning south of Surf City has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City NC to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River SC to Little River Inlet
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Fundy National Park to Shediac.
* Francois to Boat Harbour.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 76.2 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over the
coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. The center
should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England
tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late
Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian should remain a powerful hurricane as it moves near
or along the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours.
Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova
Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km). A NOAA weather station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina,
located inside the western eyewall of Dorian has reported
sustained hurricane-force winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust to
94 mph (152 km/h). This is equivalent to a 1-minute sustained wind
speed of 81 mph (130 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon
near Atlantic Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained
wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 956 mb (28.23
inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading northward along portions
of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still
affecting the northern portion of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states later today and over
portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early
Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday.

Northeastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated
storm totals 15 inches.
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches.
Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.
Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches.
New Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across
eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING SOUTH OF SURF CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NC TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC.
* FRANCOIS TO BOAT HARBOUR.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 76.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 190SE 140SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 76.2W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.8N 69.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.7N 61.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 58.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 76.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

The center of the eye of Hurricane Dorian is located just off the
coast of North Carolina not far from Cape Lookout. Based on data
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and Doppler radar velocities,
the initial intensity is set at 80 kt. This estimate is a
compromise between the flight-level winds and SFMR values. The
minimum pressure remains quite low, 956 mb, based on surface
observations and aircraft fixes. There have been several reports in
eastern North Carolina of sustained tropical-storm-force winds and
hurricane-force gusts, with the strongest winds being reported in
the northern eyewall.

Dorian is moving northeastward at 12 kt. A faster northeastward
motion is expected during the next few days as a mid- to upper-level
trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system
and accelerates the steering flow. This track forecast takes the
hurricane along the coast of North Carolina during the next several
hours and near or over Atlantic Canada this weekend. The models
are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

The hurricane is expected to gradually weaken during the next couple
of days due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. Dorian is
expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current in about
36 hours, and head over much colder waters after that. These
atmospheric and oceanic conditions should cause the cyclone to
become a powerful hurricane-force extratropical in about 2 days. As
the system gains latitude, the tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to expand significantly. The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and in line with the various
consensus aids.

Key Messages:

  1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
    to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of
    southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay. Water levels
    could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents
    in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency
    officials.

  2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more
    widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia
    this morning. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these
    areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is
    expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 34.6N 76.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 38.8N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 42.5N 65.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 46.7N 61.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 58.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSWilmingtonNC/status/1169926623790948354?p=p

Here are some of the max gusts associated with Hurricane Dorian. pic.twitter.com/lMo8wKbJg9
3:53 AM [edt] - 6 Sep 2019

Oak Island 61 mph

Links

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-49573590/dorian-triggers-panic-pillaging-looting-in-bahamas

https://apnews.com/dbe1ca34069140d982aecffe98c8c26f


Prez Trump is making himself look even sillier, which I thought was impossible.

He made a geographical mistake on Sunday, and he's still defending it now. That's wacked. On Sunday, he could have said, oops, my bad. Alabama is not threatened by Hurricane Dorian.

https://www.memeorandum.com/190905/p135#a190905p135

Trump called Fox News correspondent into Oval Office to argue he wasn't wrong about Alabama

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/05/politics/donald-trump-alabama-fox-news-white-house/

Mr Never Wrong: Storm spat underscores Trump's mindset

https://apnews.com/9b9e620b4226498b9d465dfeb27ec505

What I said was accurate!’: Trump stays fixated on his Alabama error as hurricane pounds the Carolinas

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/what-i-said-was-accurate-trump-stays-fixated-on-his-alabama-error-as-hurricane-pounds-the-carolinas/2019/09/05/32597606-cfe7-11e9-8c1c-7c8ee785b855_story.html

Shep Smith Torches Trump Over Dorian Map: ‘It Was Fake News Defined’

https://www.thedailybeast.com/shep-smith-torches-trump-over-dorian-map-it-was-fake-news-defined

Was Trump really wrong about Hurricane Dorian's threat to Alabama?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/05/donald-trump-hurricane-dorian-alabama-1482815

Yes. The NHC's forecast map on Sunday morning showed Dorian posing no threat to Alabama.

Two days ago, Wed, Sep 4, Trump showed a doctored forecast map that supposedly supported Trump's Alabama claim. But the forecast map was not from last Sunday morning when Trump made his Alabama error. The map that he displayed yesterday was from days earlier than last Sunday.

Very early on when Dorian was still a tropical storm, the extended forecast showed Dorian hitting the east central coast of Florida, and then some models showed Dorian moving north through Florida while other models showed Dorian crossing the peninsula and entering the Gulf. If either of those models had proven to be true, then yes, Alabama would have felt some affects from Dorian.

This is going to be a long-serving weather joke. Regardless of a storm's location in the world and regardless of the storm type, we will wonder if the storm will hit Alabama.

From the politico story:

Shortly after Trump tweeted on Sunday that Alabama was among the states that would be hit “harder than anticipated” by Dorian, the National Weather Service office in Birmingham quickly clarified that “Alabama will NOT see any impacts” from the storm.

Today is Friday, September 6. Last Sunday morning, September 1, the Birmingham NWS and the NHC knew that Dorian would not bother Alabama.

Here is the doctored forecast map that Trump showed the media on Wed, Sep 5. The map, however, is from Thu, Aug 29. ???

Trump made his tweet on Sep 1. If Trump is relying on three-day-old information to make statements, then he's definitely out to lunch and needs booted.

https://theconcourse.deadspin.com/donald-trump-is-not-going-to-let-this-hurricane-thing-g-1837889913

On Wed, Sep 4, Trump tweeted a spaghetti model map that again, was meant to support his claim made on Sun morning Sep 1. But like the other map, the spaghetti model map was from Thu, Aug 29.

He looks foolish for making statements based upon forecast maps that are three days old.

Back to the Politico story:

The National Hurricane Center never predicted Dorian would affect Alabama.

The map Trump showed off in the White House on Wednesday — the unaltered version, at least — was a five-day forecast from the National Hurricane Center issued at 11 a.m. on Aug. 29. The “cone of uncertainty” included most of Florida, excluding the panhandle west of the “Big Bend” area, and a little bit of southeastern Georgia.

Five days is as far out as the National Hurricane Center will go. Hurricanes — the most powerful synoptic scale systems in weather — are unpredictable. In fact, the National Hurricane Center cautions that four or five days out, tropical systems will remain in the cone only 60 percent or 70 percent of the time.

Pressed by reporters about it on Wednesday, Trump insisted, at one point last week, there was a “95 percent” chance of Dorian impacting Alabama. But no part of Alabama was ever in the forecast cone, which is accurate 60 percent or 70 percent of the time five days in advance.

The only probabilistic measure of an impact on Alabama ever issued by the National Hurricane Center was a product that predicts the chance of tropical storm-force winds of 39 miles per hour or greater occurring in a five-day period. The greatest odds for any site in Alabama to receive winds of tropical storm intensity was 11 percent, in a forecast issued on Aug. 30.

That chance quickly diminished to 0 percent.

Good data, facts, and context in that Politico story.

Longer-term computer guidance did suggest, for a time, that Dorian could enter the Gulf of Mexico.

Just because the National Hurricane Center forecast never predicted any significant impact on Alabama from Dorian doesn’t mean it was impossible. Defending himself late Wednesday, Trump posted an image borrowed from the South Florida Water Management District.

The image, which according to a time stamp was generated on Aug. 28, features many deterministic computer models plotting potential tracks for the center of Dorian. Some of those models did suggest the center of Dorian could move through the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico, where it could make a second landfall along the Northern Gulf Coast, including Alabama.

Correct, but Dorian was so far away and referencing an Aug 28 map on Sep 1 is demented. Anyone who understand reality would have referenced the the most recent NHC maps and text products on Sunday morning Sep 1 before blabbing on Twitter. But truly intelligent people would not use Twitter :) but that's a different debate.

But computer models aren’t forecasts; they’re tools for forecasters.

No weather forecaster would take the output of a single computer model — or even multiple models — and portray it as a weather forecast. Experienced forecasters blend these models with other data and their own skills to produce the most accurate forecast.

Two days before Trump’s first tweet mentioning a supposed threat to Alabama, it was clear — both from the models and the forecasts — that Dorian would turn north and northeastward either over Florida or before it reached Florida, meaning Alabama and the rest of the Gulf Coast would be spared.

It’s a federal crime to provide false weather forecasts, but Trump enjoys protections as president.

The National Weather Service has been part of the Commerce Department since the 1940s, when it was known as the U.S. Weather Bureau. According to its website, it makes forecasts “for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy.”

https://washingtonpress.com/2019/09/05/trump-just-tweeted-about-the-hurricane-hitting-alabama-for-the-fifth-time-today/

The president’s fixation on being proven right on this issue is quickly diving into Orwellian territory as he becomes more and more obsessed with proving himself right when the entire world knows that he was wrong.

Orwellian? The media need to dial back their Orwellian references about 80%.

Trump's actions on this issue are not Orwellian. They are more Looney Tunes.

From the Daily Beast article:

With President Donald Trump continuing to double down on his bizarre false claim that Alabama was at one point in the path of Hurricane Dorian, Fox News anchor Shepard Smith took the president to task on Thursday afternoon for his days-long obsession of insisting he’s right over obviously inaccurate information.

“Some things in Trumplandia are inexplicable,” Smith noted during Thursday’s broadcast of Shepard Smith Reporting. “The president said that Alabama was at risk from Hurricane Dorian. It wasn’t. Maybe he made a mistake. Maybe he was confused. We don’t know. But he was wrong.”

Noting that the president has since spent days using “fake visual aids” to prove he was right all along, Smith then pointed out that the whole kerfuffle began on Sunday morning when the president erroneously said on Twitter (and in comments later that day) that Alabama was in danger of getting hit by the storm.

“That was wrong,” Smith stated, explaining that Trump’s goof was serious enough to warrant a correction by the National Weather Service at the time.

The Fox News anchor, who is known for his methodical fact-checks of the president, went on to highlight Trump’s refusal to admit his mistake which climaxed with him flashing a doctored hurricane map during a White House briefing on Wednesday.

“Why would the president of the United States do this?” Smith wondered aloud. “He decries fake news that isn’t and disseminates fake news that is. Think China pays the tariffs. The wall is going up. Historic inauguration crowds. The Russia probe was a witch hunt. You need an ID to buy cereal. Noise from windmills causes cancer. It’s endless!”

After highlighting Trump saying he didn’t know how the hurricane map was altered with a Sharpie, Smith pointed out that the president later shared a forecast on Twitter from August 28 that showed a potential path to Alabama.

“This is where one where he could apologize and move on,” the Fox anchor exclaimed. “That map was from the day the hurricane became a hurricane. Eight days ago. August 28. It was four days old at the precise time he said Alabama would likely be hit harder than anticipated. By then, it was fake news defined on a very serious subject.”

This is beyond weak:

Smith would then bring on White House correspondent John Roberts, who gave the White House’s latest explanation for how Trump ended up sharing an outdated and altered hurricane map, stating that the map had been left in the Oval Office after a briefing and had been written on by someone during the meeting.

The date is clearly displayed on the NHC forecast track maps. The date is obvious on the large map version that Trump showed the media on Sep 4.


Medium's app code shows the company is working on an Instapaper-like reader app function that would let users save articles from the web to a reading list

https://wongmjane.com/blog/save-to-medium


In a testimony to House committee staffers, 8chan owner Jim Watkins says 8chan “has no intent of deleting constitutionally protected hate speech”

https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/5/20850791/8chan-hate-speech-delete-jim-watkins-infinitechan-el-paso-shooting-racist-white-supremacist

I don't think that 8chan exists on the surface web. It has been missing for weeks.

A Lawyer for 8chan Says the Site Could Be Back Online as Soon as Next Week

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/09/a-lawyer-for-8chan-says-the-site-could-be-back-online-as-soon-as-next-week/

In a statement addressed to Rep. Thompson and the committee before their testimony, Watkins and Barr wrote that 8chan was currently “offline voluntarily.” “The site may come back online, but only when 8chan is able to develop additional tools to counter illegal content under United States law,” they wrote.

arr and Watkins appeared before House Homeland Security Committee staffers on Capitol Hill Thursday morning in response to the subpoena issued by Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and the committee’s top Republican, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Al.), after the El Paso shooting.


Report: events from media orgs that promote person to person exchange are successful at building empathy for minorities and uniting voters across the spectrum

https://www.niemanlab.org/2019/09/kuows-events-encouraging-people-to-get-to-know-muslims-trump-supporters-and-more-seem-to-actually-be-having-an-impact/


Cobol Web Development (infogoal.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20891075

How to do a code review (google.github.io)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20890682

Apple Music Web Client (music.apple.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20890876

Slack’s Shares Plunge After It Predicts a Larger Loss (nytimes.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20886538

Jeffrey Epstein’s Donations Create a Schism at M.I.T.’s Media Lab (nytimes.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20891907

Ask HN: How do you track your blog traffic?
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20894117


Why I Quit the Writers’ Room
The worst thing you can do to citizens of a democracy is silence them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/06/opinion/sunday/walter-mosley.html


Weakened Dorian strands people on North Carolina island
https://www.apnews.com/568f7811f5154ddf930ebbfa3103cbcc

Classic human stupidity here:

A weakened Hurricane Dorian flooded homes on North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Friday with a ferocity that seemed to take storm-hardened residents by surprise, and hundreds were feared trapped by high water.

Sheriff’s officials sent medics and other rescuers to Ocracoke Island — reachable only by boat or air — amid reports of people being forced to retreat to their attics after defying mandatory evacuation orders along the 200-mile (320-kilometer) ribbon of low-lying islands.

“There is significant concern about hundreds of people trapped on Ocracoke Island,” Gov. Roy Cooper said. “There are rescue teams ready as soon as they can get in.”

More than a quarter-million residents and visitors had been ordered to evacuate the North Carolina island chain ahead of the storm, officials said.

Wow. More people exist on the Outer Banks than I expected.

Rising waters coursed into the main floors of elevated homes and smacked them with floating debris.

Around midmorning, the eye of the storm came ashore at Cape Hatteras, Dorian’s first landfall on the U.S. mainland.

“It’s bad,” Ann Warner, who owns Howard’s Pub on Ocracoke Island, said by telephone. “The water came up to the inside of our bottom floor, which has never had water.” She said a skylight blew out, and there were whitecaps in her front yard and underneath her house.

“We’re safe,” Warner added. “But it’s certainly a mess.”

Another Ocracoke Island resident, bookshop owner Leslie Lanier, said via text message that the first floors of some homes had flooded and people had been forced to climb to their attics, but that the water had already begun to drop.

“We are flooding like crazy,” she said, adding: “I have been here 32 years and not seen this.”

The NHC has been warning about this all week.

The Hyde County Sheriff’s Office said deputies, medics and other rescuers were heading to the island amid reports of “catastrophic flooding.” The governor said that authorities were telling people to get to the highest point in their homes.

To the North in Buxton on Hatteras Island, close to where Dorian made blew ashore, Radio Hatteras volunteer Mary Helen Goodloe-Murphy said that people were calling in to report that “houses are shaking like crazy” and that “it’s never been like this before.”

The people who defied mandatory evacuation orders are lucky that the storm was not stronger.

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