Links and Notes - Thu, Sep 5, 2019

10:33 p.m.

Temps were already down to the upper 50s and low 60s in the Toledo area.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Sep 5, 2019 9:52 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 62 F
Humidity : 78%
Wind Speed : SSE 5 mph
Barometer : 30.07 in
Dewpoint: 55 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Sep 5, 2019 9:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 61 F
Humidity : 78%
Wind Speed : SE 6 mph
Barometer : 30.07 in
Dewpoint: 54 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Sep 5, 2019 10:19 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 58 F
Humidity : 90%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 30.07 in
Dewpoint: 55 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Date and Time: 10:30 PM, Thu, Sep 05, 2019
Summary: Clear
Air Temp: 61 F
Dew Point: 56 F
Humidity: 84 %
Wind Direction: South-Southwest
Wind Speed: 1 mph
Wind Gust: 2 mph
Apparent Air Temp: F
Pressure: 30.08 inches
UV Index: Low : 0.0
Cloud Cover: 0 % : Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 9.714 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 1 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: South


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Sep 5, 2019 9:53 pm

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Light and variable wind.

Friday: A slight chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. North wind 3 to 6 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Northwest wind around 8 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northwest wind 3 to 5 mph.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 71.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.


WTNT35 KNHC 060008 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 50A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Corrected to add Tropical Storm Warning from Edisto Beach to South
Santee River

...EYEWALL OF DORIAN VERY NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...33.4N 78.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Cape Fear.

The Hurricane Warning from Edisto Beach SC to the South Santee
River has been changed to Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Edisto Beach has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 78.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move
near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The
center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New
England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia
later Saturday or Saturday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (160
km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next
few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
as the center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina.
Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone
by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km). Frying Pan Shoals just reported a peak gust of 70
mph (113 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data is 964 mb (28.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions are beginning to spread along portions
of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still
affecting the northern portion of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday and over
portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or
early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through early Friday across
eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

During the last 12 h, Dorian appears to have started the expected
slow weakening trend. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data show
that the central pressure inside the 35-45 n mi wide eye is slowly
rising, and satellite imagery indicates that the eye is becoming
less well defined. The current Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
reported maximum SFMR surface wind estimates of 88 kt, along with
700 mb flight-level winds of 91 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is reduced to 90 kt.

The hurricane is continuing its expected northeastward turn, and the
initial motion is now 035/9. The mid-latitude westerlies should
steer Dorian generally northeastward at an increasing forward speed,
with the eye passing near of over portions of the North Carolina
coast during the next 12-24 h. After that, Dorian is forecast to
move quickly across the northwest Atlantic and be near or over the
Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic provinces by 60 h. As was the case in
the previous advisory, the track guidance remains tightly clustered,
and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous
one.

Due to increasing shear, Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it
moves near and along the South and North Carolina coasts.
Extratropical transition should begin around 36-48 h and be complete
by 60 h, although Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force
winds through the transition. After transition is complete, the
extratropical low should weaken over the far north Atlantic and be
absorbed into a larger low pressure area by 120 h.

The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the
coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states.
Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging
winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. It also
appears that Dorian will affect portion of eastern Canada as a
hurricane-force extratropical low.

Key Messages:

  1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
    along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
    portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay,
    regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels
    could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents
    in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency
    officials.

  2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more
    widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia
    through tonight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these
    areas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is
    expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 33.1N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 50.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 56.0N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

11:43 a.m.

Mostly cloudy to cloudy morning now in Toledo.

Dorain's max sustained winds were 110 mph as of the 11:00 a.m. report.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/hurricane-dorian-flooding-charleston-tornado-carolinas

https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/2019/09/05/hurricane-dorian-causes-floods-power-outage-charleston-sc/2217503001/

https://apnews.com/61cd2b4eb62842e9998bcd8668ce8e7e


BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...EYEWALL OF DORIAN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...32.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

10:25 a.m.

https://mobile.twitter.com/StatePortPilot/

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=263&y=110&site=ilm&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=263&map_y=110

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.909&lon=-78.1087

Oak Island/Brunswick County, NC


TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2019

TORNADO WATCH 635 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC017-019-047-129-141-052000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0635.190905T0820Z-190905T2000Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS
NEW HANOVER PENDER
$$


STORM SURGE WARNING
NWS WILMINGTON NC
827 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2019

NCZ110-052009-
/O.CON.KILM.SS.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
827 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2019
Coastal Brunswick-

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

LAT...LON 3407 7793 3406 7793 3403 7793 3403 7793
3402 7793 3402 7793 3401 7794 3399 7794
3397 7795 3396 7794 3395 7794 3394 7794
3394 7794 3393 7794 3393 7794 3388 7796
3384 7796 3386 7801 3388 7802 3389 7802
3391 7813 3391 7827 3390 7837 3385 7852
3385 7854 3385 7854 3385 7854 3386 7855
3390 7860 3395 7847 3397 7833 3397 7822
3397 7813 3395 7805 3410 7795 3410 7794
3411 7794 3407 7793


Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059-052045-

Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
National Weather Service Wilmington NC AL052019
831 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

This product covers southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina

DORIAN WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT

NEW INFORMATION

SITUATION OVERVIEW

Hurricane Dorian remains a strong hurricane as it tracks slowly
north off the coast of southern South Carolina. Dorian will turn
to the northeast later this afternoon, and will pass very close to Cape
Fear tonight. The risk of hazardous conditions will increase
across the region, including damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge inundation, flash flooding, strong rip currents, and severe
beach erosion. Additionally, dangerous marine conditions are
expected to occur across the adjacent coastal waters. Heavy rainfall
will enhance the risk for flash flooding.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
significant to extensive impacts across inland counties along and east of
the I-95 corridor.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across inland counties east of the I-95 corridor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

For those not under evacuation orders, understand that there are
inherent risks to evacuation (such as traffic congestion, accidents,
and driving in bad weather), so evacuate only if necessary. Help keep
roadways open for those that are under evacuation orders.

If evacuating away from the area or relocating to a nearby shelter, leave
early before weather conditions become hazardous.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged and handy. Also, cell phone chargers
for automobiles can be helpful after the storm. Locate your chargers
and keep them with your cell phone.

If you are a visitor and still in the area, listen for the name of
the city or town in which you are staying within local news updates.
Be sure you know the name of the county or parish in which it
resides. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities.

NEXT UPDATE

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Wilmington NC around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.


Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
507 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...Dangerous Surf to Develop...

NCZ110-SCZ054-056-060000-
/O.CON.KILM.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190906T0900Z/
/O.CON.KILM.BH.S.0032.190905T1000Z-190906T0000Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0013.190905T1000Z-190906T0000Z/
Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
507 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and
dangerous swimming conditions.

There is a high risk of rip currents. Life threatening rip
currents are likely in the surf zone.

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away
from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the
sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as groins, jetties
and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and
signs.


Dorian Local Watch/Warning Statement/Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
National Weather Service Wilmington NC AL052019
827 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

NCZ110-052030-
/O.CON.KILM.SS.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KILM.HU.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Coastal Brunswick-
827 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...


Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
934 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...Areas of Flooding Likely From Hurricane Dorian...

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059-
060000-
/O.CON.KILM.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-190906T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-
Coastal Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro,
Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, Lake Waccamaw, Burgaw,
Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro, Myrtle Grove, Ogden,
Carolina Beach, Seagate, Boiling Spring Lakes, Leland, Shallotte,
Oak Island, Long Beach, Southport, Sunset Beach, Bennettsville,
McColl, Hartsville, Darlington, North Hartsville, Dillon,
Florence, Marion, Mullins, Kingstree, Myrtle Beach, Socastee,
North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews,
Georgetown, Murrells Inlet, Conway, Longs, Bucksport, Loris,
Green Sea, and Aynor
934 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

$$


Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
507 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...Dangerous Surf to Develop...

NCZ110-SCZ054-056-060000-
/O.CON.KILM.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190906T0900Z/
/O.CON.KILM.BH.S.0032.190905T1000Z-190906T0000Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0013.190905T1000Z-190906T0000Z/
Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
507 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and
dangerous swimming conditions.

There is a high risk of rip currents. Life threatening rip
currents are likely in the surf zone.

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away
from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the
sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as groins, jetties
and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and
signs.


Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
507 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...Dangerous Surf to Develop...

NCZ110-SCZ054-056-060000-
/O.CON.KILM.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190906T0900Z/
/O.CON.KILM.BH.S.0032.190905T1000Z-190906T0000Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0013.190905T1000Z-190906T0000Z/
Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
507 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and
dangerous swimming conditions.

There is a high risk of rip currents. Life threatening rip
currents are likely in the surf zone.

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away
from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the
sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as groins, jetties
and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and
signs.


Clinton, NC/Samson County

Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NCZ011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-052200-

Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
National Weather Service Raleigh NC AL052019
1000 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

This product covers central North Carolina

HURRICANE DORIAN IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

NEW INFORMATION

SITUATION OVERVIEW

Hurricane Dorian will be impacting central North Carolina
through Friday afternoon. Storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8
inches with locally higher amounts can be expected mainly along and
east of Interstate 95. Between U.S. Highway 1 and Interstate 95
storm totals of 1 to 4 inches will be possible. This rainfall could
result in flash flooding, particularly in low-lying and poor
drainage areas, and subsequent river flooding. In addition,
sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph across the
Coastal Plain and Sandhills can be expected. Winds of this magnitude
combined with saturated soils will result in scattered downed trees
and power lines. Isolated tornadoes are possible within rainbands.
Impacts will decrease markedly to the west of US Highway 1.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across the interior of North Carolina.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the Piedmont of North Carolina.

Elsewhere across central North Carolina, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

NEXT UPDATE

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Raleigh NC around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

10:09 a.m.

"Area braces for Hurricane Dorian; evacuations ordered"
https://stateportpilot.com/news/article_f07df418-cf4c-11e9-8d83-5307a18c4181.html

Currently, Toledo temps were in the low 60s.

TOL:
Sep 5, 2019 9:52 am EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 62 F
Humidity : 78%
Wind Speed : NNW 3 mph
Barometer : 30.18 in
Dewpoint: 55 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Sep 5, 2019 9:16 am

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. East wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Calm wind.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Northwest wind 3 to 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 72.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.


BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...32.1N 79.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 79.3 West. Dorian is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward
the northeast is anticipated by tonight, and a northeastward motion
at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast
of South Carolina today, and then move near or over the coast of
North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the
southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and
Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
this morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday. However,
Dorian is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
195 miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 41004, located a short distance north
of the eye, recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h)
and a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). Charleston International
Airport recently reported a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 959 mb (28.32 inches). NOAA buoy 41004
recently reported a pressure of 976.0 mb (28.82 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are
expected along portions of the South Carolina coast later this
morning.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North
Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin later
today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical
storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday
or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Far Southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches
Coastal Georgia...1 to 2 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon near
the coastal South and North Carolina border area. This threat will
expand northeastward across the rest of eastern North Carolina
during the afternoon and continue into tonight.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE
BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VA TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND ATLANTIC CANADA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 79.5W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 250SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 79.5W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 79.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.7N 78.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.1N 74.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.3N 70.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.0N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 58.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 79.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Dorian continues to exhibit a large eye of about 50 n mi in
diameter on satellite and radar images. Earlier data from
hurricane hunter aircraft indicate little change to the minimum
central pressure, and flight-level winds still support an intensity
close to 100 kt at this time. Dorian should soon begin to
experience increasing southwesterly shear, which should lead to at
least slow weakening during the next couple of days. The official
forecast maintains the cyclone at hurricane strength through 72
hours, which is in general agreement with the LGEM guidance and on
the high side of the guidance suite. By 72 hours, the global models
show Dorian becoming embedded within a baroclinic zone, and
simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model depicts a highly
asymmetric cloud pattern. Therefore, the NHC forecast shows the
system becoming extratropical by that time.

Dorian's initial motion is about 010/6 kt. The hurricane is
currently moving through a break in the subtropical ridge. Within
a day or so, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increasing
forward speed in response to a broad mid-tropospheric trough to the
north. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with
the dynamical model consensus. The forecast track and wind radii
now require the issuance of a tropical storm watch for extreme
southeastern New England.

The center of Dorian is still expected to move very near or over
the coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic
states. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for
damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains.

Key Messages:

  1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
    along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
    portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay,
    regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels
    could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds.
    Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
    emergency officials.

  2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across the eastern
    Carolinas today. There is a high risk of flash flooding over
    coastal sections of the Carolinas where life-threatening flash
    flooding is expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 31.7N 79.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 32.7N 78.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 36.1N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 38.3N 70.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 46.0N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z 58.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 05 2019

...POORLY ORGANIZED GABRIELLE MOVING OVER THE OPEN EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...21.9N 35.0W
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 35.0 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue for the next few days with an increase in
forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple
of days. Afterward, some slow strengthening is expected to begin
by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

None.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN


TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 35.0W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 40SE 50SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 35.0W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.7N 35.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.2N 37.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 41.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 31.6N 46.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 35.8N 48.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 40.6N 44.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 35.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 05 2019

METEOSAT imagery and an earlier WindSat microwave overpass show
Gabielle's poorly defined center of circulation sheared well to the
south of the curved convective band features to north, indicative of
moderate southerly shear. The initial intensity is held at a
generous 45 kt for this advisory, and is based on the subjective
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Although Gabrielle could experience some intensity fluctuations
during the next 24 hours, the cyclone should remain in a
rather harsh environment during the next 36-48 hours, due to
south to southwesterly vertical shear, some dry air in the middle
portions of the atmosphere, and oceanic sea surface temperatures on
the order of 25-26C. Afterward, gradual strengthening is forecast
as Gabrielle moves into a more favorable upper wind pattern and
warmer SSTs, and this is consistent with the IVCN multi-model
consensus and the Decay SHIPS.

After the adjustment to the south of the previous advisory based
on the ASCAT-A/B scatterometer passes and a recent SSMI/S image, the
initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/7 kt. For
the next several days, Gabrielle is expected to move generally
northwestward toward a large weakness in the mid-Atlantic
subtropical ridge. An increase in forward motion is expected as the
steering flow strengthens between a cut-off low to the west and high
pressure to the northeast. Around days 4 and 5, the cyclone should
turn generally northward in response to an approaching
mid-tropospheric short wave trough. An adjustment to the right of
the previous forecast was made, and the NHC forecast is based on a
blend of the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 21.9N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 22.7N 35.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 24.2N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 28.0N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 31.6N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 35.8N 48.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 40.6N 44.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Links

WTF?

"Trump shows doctored Hurricane Dorian chart"

https://apnews.com/416144d854fb4302a9f34cccae81b0e0

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/day-four-trump-quintuples-down-on-fake-map-of-hurricane-dorian/

https://popculture.com/trending/2019/09/05/sharpie-gate-donald-trump-twitter-backlash-hurricane-dorian/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/09/04/trumps-war-reality-enters-bizarre-new-terrain/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/04/president-trump-shows-doctored-hurricane-chart-was-it-cover-up-alabama-twitter-flub/


https://www.baltimoresun.com/health/bs-hs-hopkins-psychedelic-research-center-20190904-7ufx4b65zrfjpgetqwczr6eezy-story.html

"After 20 Years, Documentary about Mysterious Late Designer Yves St. Laurent and Partner Pierre Berge Finally Set for Release"
https://www.showbiz411.com/2019/09/03/after-20-years-documentary-about-mysterious-late-designer-yves-st-laurent-and-partner-pierre-berge-finally-set-for-release


https://theintercept.com/2019/09/04/after-climate-forum-biden-heads-to-a-fundraiser-co-hosted-by-a-fossil-fuel-executive/

https://heated.world/p/seven-freaking-hours


https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/05/republicans-redistricting-democrats-1481833

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/459987-williamson-left-shouldnt-mock-people-who-think-prayers-can-turn-away


https://www.theatlantic.com/news/archive/2019/09/introducing-the-atlantics-new-subscription-model/597304/

The Atlantic reinstates its paywall, starting at $49.99 per year for digital access only; users will be able to access five free articles per month

here we go. the stupid quote of the day.

Sarah Cone / @impcapital: Dear news outlets; please understand I cannot afford you all

every time a local newspaper closes, journalists use twitter to order people to fund local journalism.

we didn't fund "you all" news outlets 30 years ago. why should it be different today?


Inside BuzzFeed's Tech + News Working Group, a collaboration between reporters and the IT team, leading to better understanding of issues, new tools, and scoops

https://tech.buzzfeed.com/tech-and-news-working-group-7dabaaa38e45

@janelytv: Having this collaboration has been dope and every newsroom should do it.

right. that was written by a buzzfeed reporter. that ain't local journalism. the problem is that many or most local, daily newspapers do not have the resources to support an IT department. weekly and bi-weekly newspapers would be in worst shape.

https://dev.to/logan/working-with-journalists-makes-me-a-better-engineer-5db9


Trump admin aide, who quit over a Bloomberg story that misread his Facebook posts as anti-Semitic, has reportedly been reinstated; Bloomberg stands by report

https://mediagazer.com/190904/p19#a190904p19

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/09/leif-olson-reinstated-trump-admin-facebook-posts.html

the next story is why does bloomberg stand by their initial reporting?


Google’s GDPR Workaround (brave.com)
https://brave.com/google-gdpr-workaround/
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20876248


Facebook Dating (fb.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20886972

HN comment:

I think this might be a (relatively) rare strategy error for Facebook. If the success of Snapchat, LinkedIn, and also the separate WhatsApp/Instagram properties proves anything, it's that there are very different faces of ourselves that we show to the professional world, to our friends, to partners, and to the world at large.

HN reply:

I think Facebook's goal is to make it so that you have one persona you show to everyone. If you have one persona, that means that you need to optimize that persona for your career and ironically it feels more stiflingly conformist. Just my personal feelings on the matter, though. I kind of like the old model where you pretend to be conservative at work, and are free to be as weird as you want to in your own time.

It means a loss of self or individuality. No thanks.

-30-