Links and Notes - Wed, Sep 4, 2019

5:17 p.m.

The forecast track of Hurricane Dorian takes the storm to Newfoundland Island on Sunday.

5pm statement excerpt:

Extratropical transition is now expected to begin
between 48-72 h and be complete just after 72 h, with Dorian
forecast to become a hurricane-force extratropical low as it moves
towards Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

https://www.thetelegram.com/news/regional/dorian-likely-to-be-post-tropical-when-it-hits-atlantic-canada-348162/


WTNT45 KNHC 042057
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Dorian has become a little better organized during the past several
hours, with the eye becoming somewhat more distinct and the cold
cloud tops in the eyewall becoming more symmetric. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has twice reported 110-kt
flight-level winds in the eastern eyewall, and the central pressure
has fallen to 961 mb. Based on these data and that of eyewall
dropsondes, the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt. The
aircraft data show that hurricane-force winds are 50-60 n mi
offshore of northeastern coast of Florida, while surface
observations show that tropical-storm conditions are affecting
portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

The initial motion is now 345/8. Dorian is moving around the
western end of the subtropical ridge, and it should recurve
northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during
the next 12-36 h. This motion should bring the center of Dorian
near the coast of South Carolina in about 24 h and near or over the
coast of North Carolina during the 36-48 h period. After that time,
the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the
Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes, with a quick northeastward
motion continuing through 120 h. The track guidance remains very
tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changed from
the previous forecast. It should be noted that the track is close
to and almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United
State, and any deviation to the left of the track could bring the
center onshore anywhere in the Carolinas.

Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate
vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the
next 36 h or so. None of the guidance shows significant
strengthening during this time, and the official forecast is
similar to, but slightly stronger than, the previous forecast.
However, based on current trends it is possible that Dorian could
briefly regain major hurricane strength during the next 12-24 h. The
hurricane is expected to maintain Category 2 intensity as it passes
near the southeastern United States coast during the 24-48 h period,
followed by a weakening trend due to increasing shear and dry air
entrainment. Extratropical transition is now expected to begin
between 48-72 h and be complete just after 72 h, with Dorian
forecast to become a hurricane-force extratropical low as it moves
towards Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously
close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast
Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility
of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-
threatening storm surges from this hurricane.

Key Messages:

  1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
    along portions of the Florida east coast, the coasts of Georgia,
    South Carolina, and North Carolina, and portions of southeast
    Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact
    track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance
    of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should
    follow advice given by local emergency officials.

  2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal
    Georgia into the eastern Carolinas tonight into Friday. There is a
    high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas,
    where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 30.6N 79.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 32.7N 79.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 34.0N 77.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 35.9N 74.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 42.1N 65.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 50.5N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1800Z 56.5N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$


BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT DORIAN HAS STRENGTHENED A
LITTLE...
...EYE NOW EAST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...30.6N 79.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Poquoson,
Virginia, including Hampton Roads.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the North
Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for the
Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Chincoteague,
Virginia, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, for the Chesapeake Bay from
Smith Point to Drum Point, and for the Tidal Potomac River south of
Cobb Island.

The Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning have been
discontinued south of the Flagler/Volusia County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County line FL to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County FL line to Savannah River
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.
Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the
progress of the hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 79.8 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the
north is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north-
northeast on Thursday and a turn toward the northeast on Thursday
night. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast
on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will
approach the coast of South Carolina tonight, move near or over the
coast of South Carolina on Thursday, and move near or over the coast
of North Carolina Thursday night and Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph
(175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are
possible tonight, followed by slow weakening Thursday through
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 41008 near the Georgia coast recently
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a wind gust of 60
mph (97 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter is
961 mb (28.38 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Georgia and southern South Carolina coasts, and should begin
along other portions of the South Carolina coast during the next
several hours.

Tropical storm conditions will begin elsewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions
beginning by late tonight and Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical
storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday
or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions along the northeastern Florida coast
should subside tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South
Carolina border...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast
of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this
evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO
POQUOSON VIRGINIA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...AND FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE...FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT...AND FOR THE TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FL TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FL LINE TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VA TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......170NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 79.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.7N 79.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.0N 77.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.9N 74.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.1N 65.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 180SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 56.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 79.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

4:57 p.m.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located closer to Africa than North America. It's located in the area where Florence was located about this time last year. Gabrielle, however, is expected to follow a track that takes the storm north, well east of Bermuda, which was the early forecast for Florence.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019

...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER EASTERN ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...21.0N 34.0W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 34.0 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday, with an increase in forward
speed expected late in the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours,
with some strengthening possible over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

None.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Hagen


TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 34.0W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 34.0W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 33.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 34.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.8N 35.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.2N 37.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.0N 43.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 47.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 36.5N 48.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 34.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/HAGEN


WTNT43 KNHC 042031
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019

Recent microwave data suggest that Gabrielle continues to gradually
become better organized, and the last few GOES-16 images show a
convective burst forming over the center. The initial intensity is
estimated at 45 kt based on the Dvorak number from TAFB and an
earlier ASCAT pass from this morning, but it's possible that this
intensity estimate may be conservative. The storm could intensify
a little more in the short-term, but overall it is expected to
remain in a marginal environment during the next couple of days,
characterized by moderate southerly to southwesterly wind shear, low
values of mid-level relative humidity and SSTs near 26-27C. Little
overall change in strength is predicted during the next two days.
Thereafter, some strengthening is likely as Gabrielle moves on the
northeastern side of an upper-level low into a lower shear region,
at the same time the cyclone moves over warmer water. The new NHC
intensity forecast shows Gabrielle reaching hurricane strength in
about 5 days, which is consistent with the latest HWRF, NOAA
corrected-consensus and COAMPS-TC models.

The initial motion is estimated at 325/8. For the next 5 days,
Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break
in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge. An increase in forward
speed is expected due to the gradient between an upper-level low to
the west and the ridge to the northeast. The latest models have
shifted a little to the west for the point of recurvature in about 5
days, and the official forecast splits the difference between the
previous NHC forecast and the latest various consensus models in the
day 4 to 5 time period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 21.0N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.7N 34.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.8N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 24.2N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 30.0N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 33.0N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 36.5N 48.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Hagen

9:11 a.m.

Sunny, pleasant morning.

TOL:
Sep 4, 2019 8:52 am EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 70 F
Humidity : 68%
Wind Speed : WNW 8 mph
Barometer : 29.99 in
Dewpoint: 59 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Sep 4, 2019 6:14 am

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Northwest wind 9 to 11 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Northeast wind 3 to 7 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Light east wind.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Calm wind.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 71.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.


At 12:44 a.m. today, yes, a.m., a Scissor-grinder Cicada sang. Sometimes that happens, cicadas singing late at night.

The cicada sang again at 12:51 a.m. The song came into our upstairs bedroom through the north window that was raised with the screen down.

http://sawv.org/2019/09/04/at-12-44-am-yes-am-a-scissorgrinder-cicada-sang-sometimes-that-hap.html

Links

http://sawv.org/wren/create
http://toledoweather.info/forecast.html
https://wilmade.com/double-crochet-all-the-way-shawl/
https://www.drudgereport.com/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-storm-chaser-went-silent-as-dorian-hit-the-bahamas-he-re-emerged-with-a-harrowing-story/ar-AAGM1jQ
https://news.yahoo.com/slow-crawling-dorian-kind-threat-201113535.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bahamas
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucayan_Archipelago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archipelagic_state
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cay
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucayan_people
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arawakan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ta%C3%ADno_people
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispaniola
https://www.wiscassetnewspaper.com/article/will-hurricane-dorian-impact-maine-birds/123705


Sullivan is back to spewing drivel. Mega media whining. The national U.S. political media is an embarrassment to journalism. The media at all levels, but especially at the national political level, peddle fear and rage. Their business models are based upon making people angry. It's not about informing people. It's about getting as many people as possible made at some make believe "other side." The national U.S. political media instigates division. It's a revenue stream. No need to over-complicate this.

Trump's escalating media attacks will deepen distrust of media among the GOP, erode trust in CNN, have little effect on the industry, and further divide the US

That's so bogus. It ignores the realities of the national U.S. political media.

https://mediagazer.com/190904/p10#a190904p10

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/trumps-attacks-on-the-news-media-are-accelerating-you-can-expect-three-results/2019/09/03/fedfff66-ce3d-11e9-87fa-8501a456c003_story.html

Naturally, other journalists will salivate with agreement over Sullivan's inane opinion. Journalists lack the objectivity to view their industry properly.

And this is national U.S. political media, which is a major actor in the crapshow of national politics. The national U.S. political is the flip side to the same coin that hosts prez Trump. I struggle to see the difference between Trump and the national political media.

Local media/journalism is more important than the national political media hacks.

Attacking the reality-based media is nothing new for Trump. That strategy was a mainstay of his 2016 campaign and has endured, like a chronic disease, throughout his presidency.

But unfortunately, the petulant-acting journalists are not above the asinine fray. The journalists gleefully wallow in the same gutter as Trump. These so-called journalists get trolled by Trump. The journalist cannot resist reporting and responding to Trump's trolling. Trump owns the emotional states of the journalists.

It's hilarious. It's a humorous crapshow. And Sullivan's whining plays right into Trump's hands.

Near the end of Sullivan's opinion, Sullivan interjects some reality.

Granted, media outlets are far from perfect. Mainstream journalists make mistakes, and need to do a better job of owning them and improving their record of fairness and accuracy.

This is weird.

And so, my third takeaway: Trump’s attacks on news outlets won’t make much difference to the media industry itself or individual journalists.

Then why spend the time creating the opinion? Trump owns Sullivan's emotional state.

I had no idea that CNN was a trustworthy infotainment org.

When I peruse Memeorandum.com, I'm always suspicious of articles, published by the NY Times and WaPo. I distrust tech articles, created by those infotainment orgs.

I'm more likely now to trust news reported by BuzzFeed News, the Daily Bease, and maybe even the Atlantic.

https://newrepublic.com/article/154923/boundless-grift-right-wing-media-watchdogs

https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential-campaign-trump-allies-journalists-6733432f-b008-45d3-99c2-9dca7931faff.html


Adding to the national political media crapshow ...

Trump allies seek $2M+ to investigate reporters and editors; allies include Arthur Schwartz, who has battled reporters as well as pitched stories to them

https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential-campaign-trump-allies-journalists-6733432f-b008-45d3-99c2-9dca7931faff.html

https://mediagazer.com/190903/p15#a190903p15

Jennifer Bendery / @jbendery: Axios reporting that Trump allies are raising money ahead of 2020 to target reporters at CNN, MSNBC, all broadcast networks, NYT, WaPo, BuzzFeed and HuffPost. https://www.axios.com/...


Web browser Brave hands evidence to Irish data regulator showing Google uses hidden webpages to pass personal data of users to advertisers, undercutting GDPR

https://t.co/Wmd1ZKQkkX

https://www.ft.com/content/e3e1697e-ce57-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f

Sounds convincing. If true, then the EU needs to fine Google hundreds of billions of dollars.

Related HN thread with over 300 comments.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20876248

Top comment:

It's really funny to see that yesterday, I was branded as a 'privacy nut' after the release of Android 10 as I was concerned about the privacy issues that are in Android. Then the Go modules proxy issue around the Go Programming language that raised suspicions about tracking usage statistics around downloading modules turned on by default without any consent and now this.

I think there are some folks at Google who have just read too deep into both 1984 and The Google Book to go on to think that privacy violations like this is a normal thing. But what do I know? I'm just another 'privacy lunatic' on the net that wears a metal helmet (tinfoil hats are just not good enough) trying to protect my privacy.

Reply comment:

I was branded as a 'privacy nut'

Companies do actually employ shills to go on forums and try to sway public opinion. They call them something like public advocates, doesn't change the idea though.

Reply to that reply:

This is exactly what happened in the McDonald's "hot coffee" lawsuit. It wasn't some "Karen" who hit a bump while driving. It was an elderly woman (in her 70s, IIRC), sitting in the passenger seat.

McDonalds already had complaints (and some lawsuits) over the (significantly higher than industry standard) temperature of their coffee, so this wasn't exactly out of the blue.

She ended up with 3rd degree burns on her legs and crotch. She asked only for her medical bills to be paid. McDonald's refused, so she eventually took them to court. Even then, she only asked for medical bills (and now legal expenses).

The jury decided that McDonalds was not only liable for those costs, but had treated the woman so poorly that they should pay punitive damages. The massive amount you heard about in the news was based on the amount of money McDonalds makes selling coffee in one day.

But that's not the story that was spread by the shills...


"Google, YouTube to Pay $170M Penalty over Collecting Kids' Personal Info"

https://www.npr.org/2019/09/04/757441886/google-youtube-to-pay-170-million-penalty-over-collecting-kids-personal-info

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20876960

Uh, $170 million???

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joetoscano1/2019/09/03/google-has-my-dead-grandpas-data-and-he-never-used-the-internet/#5bd4f2df2b0c


Axios Sports newsletter hits 100K subscribers, up ~10x since Axios acquired Sports Internet in January, claims a 42% open rate, double the industry standard

https://adexchanger.com/publishers/axios-has-a-game-plan-for-growth-and-its-all-about-engagement/

I thought that email died and vanished back in 2005. No?

The Axios Sports newsletter recently hit a major milestone: 100,000 subscribers, up nearly tenfold in less than nine months.

But this is not just growth for growth’s sake, said Ernesto Arrocha, associate director of growth and engagement at Axios, which publishes just under 20 daily and weekly newsletters.

Its sports newsletter maintains a 42% open rate, around double the industry benchmark for email opens.


https://gds.blog.gov.uk/2019/08/27/podcast-on-writing/