Links and Notes - Tue, Sep 3, 2019

10:16 p.m.

TOL:
Sep 3, 2019 9:52 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 76 F
Humidity : 74%
Wind Speed : SSW 9 mph
Barometer : 29.82 in
Dewpoint: 67 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

SPC issued an MD, moments ago that included northwest Ohio. We could be issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. The SPC still shows us under a Slight Risk for severe weather late tonight.

Cle NWS issued a new HWO a few minutes ago too.

A line of storms has formed over the past one to two hours from northern Michigan to central Illinois.


Ryan's last tweet, made at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WTOL11Toledo/status/1168984531866738688?p=p

While scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight into tomorrow morning, the threat for severe weather is very low overnight. Our First Alert Weather Team will continue working to bring you the latest. bit.ly/2ZIG3R4 pic.twitter.com/weaUaOJjMX
1:30 PM - 3 Sep 2019

Let's hope that Ryan is correct.


md 1923 concerning severe potential...watch possible for northern indiana...northwest ohio...southern lower michigan

mesoscale discussion 1923
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0903 pm cdt tue sep 03 2019

areas affected...northern indiana...northwest ohio...southern lower
michigan

concerning...severe potential...watch possible

valid 040203z - 040430z

probability of watch issuance...40 percent

summary...an isolated severe threat will likely develop across parts
of southern lower michigan into northern indiana and possibly
northwest ohio this evening. hail and strong gusty winds will be the
primary threats. weather watch issuance still remains possible and
convective trends will continue to be monitored.

discussion...the latest surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low across
ontario with a cold front extending south-southwestward across
northern and western lower michigan into northern illinois. ahead of
the front, surface dewpoints range from the mid 60s f in
west-central lower michigan to the mid 70s f in northeastern
illinois, along which a corridor of moderate to strong instability
is analyzed by the rap. scattered thunderstorms are developing along
the instability axis from southwest lower michigan into northeast
illinois. this convection will continue to expand in coverage,
moving eastward across southern lower michigan and northern indiana
this evening. although low-level winds are veered to the
south-southwest, the grand rapids wsr-88d vwp shows about 40 kt of
0-6 km shear. this would be enough for cell organization and a few
severe multicells will be possible. the primary threats will be
isolated wind damage and hail.

..broyles/hart.. 09/04/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...dtx...iwx...grr...lot...

lat...lon 41498335 40828669 41138759 42888561 43248452 42888252
41498335


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
1003 pm edt tue sep 3 2019

lez142>144-162>164-ohz003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-050215-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-crawford-
richland-ashland-marion-morrow-
1003 pm edt tue sep 3 2019

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie, north central ohio
and northwest ohio.

.day one...tonight.

scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the area
overnight. there is a slight risk of severe weather with
thunderstorms with wind gusts to 60 mph and large hail as the
primary threats. an isolated tornado is also possible. timing will
be late from about 9 pm tuesday through 3 am wednesday.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.


day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0800 pm cdt tue sep 03 2019

valid 040100z - 041200z

...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the great lakes and midwest...

...summary...
isolated severe thunderstorms may still occur this evening across
parts of the great lakes and midwest. large hail and damaging winds
remain possible.

...midwest/great lakes...
isolated convection along/ahead of a surface cold front has
struggled to intensify early this evening in the wake of earlier
storms that moved over the midwest and great lakes. a strongly
sheared environment remains present across region owing to a
pronounced shortwave trough moving eastward. but, only a narrow
corridor of weak to moderate instability has developed ahead of the
surface front. there still appears to be some potential for storms
to increase in coverage and intensity this evening across parts of
southern lower mi, northeastern il, northern in, and northwestern
oh. the slight risk has been generally confined to this area, where
a relatively better chance for isolated large hail and strong to
locally damaging winds exists. the tornado threat should continue to
decrease this evening as low-level flow continues to veer, reducing
hodograph size and effective srh. the overall severe threat will
likely wane with eastward extent tonight as the boundary layer
continues to slowly stabilize.

...florida...
hurricane dorian is expected to continue moving northwest tonight
into early wednesday based on the most recent national hurricane
center forecast. this will keep the east coast of the fl peninsula
in the typically unfavorable western periphery of dorian's
circulation. still, some enlargement to the low-level hodograph
combined with weak instability might support a couple of shallow
rotating cells capable of a brief tornado through tonight.

...deep south texas...
tropical storm fernand will continue to slowly approach the coast of
northeastern mexico overnight per the latest forecast from the
national hurricane center. a gradual strengthening of low-level
easterly flow on its northern periphery could support isolated
low-topped supercell potential and possibly a brief tornado across
parts of deep south tx through the overnight hours.

..gleason.. 09/04/2019

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 0600z


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Sep 3, 2019 6:33 pm

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Low around 63. Southwest wind 13 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Northwest wind 8 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. North wind 3 to 7 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Calm wind.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 75.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.

3:57 p.m.

It's still cloudy, low clouds, low light. Two days ago, today's forecast high was 87 degrees. Yesterday, our forecast high for today was 85. This morning, our forecast high for today was 83. We are still in the upper 70s. The most recent forecast issued within the past hour still predicts 83 degrees for today's high. Maybe some clearing will occur later.

According to the SPC, we are still under a Slight Risk for severe weather with a small chance for large hail, strong winds, and a tornado.

Cicadas have been singing throughout the day, Dog Day and the occasional Scissor-grinder. I don't hear the Linne's nor the fourth species much anymore. Peak cicada song seemed to occur during the last two to three weeks of August.

Sawtooth Sunflower plants near the backdoor and in the middle oval bed have blooms, but nothing open yet. Some Hosta plants are blooming, late bloomers. The goldenrod started blooming within the past couple days, but only two or three plants have bloomed. I guess that September will be the month for blooming goldenrod and sawtooths.

Seedum is turning pink-red. Some of the stalks are at pink-red while others are still much lighter.

The new lawn grass growing on the former produce garden rectangle is doing well. It's taller than the rest of the lawn. I have mowed some with my mower and hand cut some with a hand trimmer. I have left a small area of the former produce garden as dirt, since I plan to transplant some small hosta plants, growing out of sight along the west side of the house to this new flower bed.

Last week, I picked 30 to 40 small tomatoes that all had rotten bottoms. Some were turning red.


Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Sep 3, 2019 2:52 pm EDT
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 77 F
Humidity : 67%
Wind Speed : S 6 mph
Barometer : 29.89 in
Dewpoint: 65 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Sep 3, 2019 2:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 78 F
Humidity : 64%
Wind Speed : SSW 13 mph
Wind Gust 23 mph
Barometer : 29.91 in
Dewpoint: 65 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Sep 3, 2019 3:35 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 78 F
Humidity : 64%
Wind Speed : SSW 8 mph
Barometer : 29.88 in
Dewpoint: 65 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Date and Time: 03:45 PM, Tue, Sep 03, 2019
Summary: Partly Cloudy
Air Temp: 78 F
Dew Point: 66 F
Humidity: 65 %
Wind Direction: South-Southwest
Wind Speed: 6 mph
Wind Gust: 8 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 79 F
Pressure: 29.87 inches
UV Index: Moderate : 5.0
Cloud Cover: 17 % : Mostly Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 43 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: West-Northwest


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Sep 3, 2019 3:27 pm

This Afternoon: A slight chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Southwest wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Rain and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between midnight and 2am. Cloudy, then gradual clearing toward daybreak, with a low around 63. Southwest wind 10 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 73. West wind 8 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53. North wind 3 to 6 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 72. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 54.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 70.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
216 pm edt tue sep 3 2019

.synopsis...
low pressure over the upper midwest will continue east across
the northern great lakes today. this low will extend a cold
front across the region on wednesday. high pressure will build
in behind the cold front on wednesday night and will remain in
place through friday.

&&

.near term /through wednesday/...
added the possibility of showers for the next few hours to the
forecast...mainly west of cleveland. the short term high res
models are not initializing well with these showers over western
ohio...so confidence is low on how long they will stick around.
otherwise...forecast looks on track.

previous discussion...
the forecast area remains in the periphery of high pressure
located over southeastern ontario. this stable feature has
allowed for some patchy fog to develop in the region, where some
trapped low level moisture remains including after some brief
rain on monday evening. this area of high pressure will continue
east of the area and will allow the region to be in the warm
sector of a deepening low over the upper midwest. an upper
trough rippling through the prairie provinces of canada is
supporting this feature and has been responsible for the
development of an mcs over minnesota and wisconsin this morning.
this mcs will continue racing ahead of the associated surface
low and stay north of the forecast area. however, this system
will be the focus for potential shower and thunderstorm
development later tonight.

in the warm sector of this low, the forecast area will be dry
and strong southerly winds will develop as the boundary layer
becomes well mixed. wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be fairly
common this afternoon. warm air advection over the region will
allow for temperatures to surge into the 80s as 850 mb
temperatures of 20 c get mixed down to the surface. however,
these warm low level temperatures are also indicative of a
fairly strong cap over the region, which will limit thunderstorm
development until some better forcing enters the area. the low
pressure system will cross the northern lakes today and extend a
cold front south across the region. meanwhile, some favorable
jets, including a 50 knot mid level jet and 35 knot low level
jet will also enter the region. the combination of the two
should allow for enough forcing to generate showers and
thunderstorms late this evening. however, taking a look at
forecast soundings, it may be as late as 03z until the cap
erodes enough over nw ohio to allow thunderstorms over the
region. if the area can overcome the strong cap, there are some
strong mid-level lapse rates entering the region along with 50
knots of bulk shear, which could support severe thunderstorms,
including a damaging wind or large hail threat. low level shear
values also will be elevated and an isolated tornado could also
be possible, but very dependent on the overall evolution of
convection. if convection does develop and enter the region,
the timing appears to be late tuesday night into wednesday, or
02z to 10z.

the cold front crosses the forecast area on wednesday from west
to east and high pressure will build in over the region for
wednesday night. have decreasing pops with the front. morning
convection along with cold air advection in the region should
knock temperatures down quite a bit from tuesday`s highs and
should see 70s across the forecast area.

&&

.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
the eastern great lakes region will be in a west to northwest flow
in the mid levels wednesday night into thursday. a surface high
pressure system will be dropping down across the great lakes with a
cooler and drier airmass. it will be nice open the windows type
weather for the end of the week with overnight temperatures in the
lower to middle 50s and afternoon high temperatures in the lower to
middle 70s. a shortwave in the 500 mb flow will move through the
great lakes region on friday. this weather system will bring some
clouds but the atmosphere column will be too dry for any notable
showers.

&&

.long term /saturday through tuesday/...
a broad upper level trough will continue to be positioned north of
the new england region into southeast canada. another cold front
will move through the region late on saturday with some clouds and a
chance for some scattered showers down wind of the lake. we keep the
slight chance for a few showers and lake clouds downwind of the lake
through sunday. temperatures will be on the cooler side this weekend
behind the frontal passage. the model guidance diverges on weather
pattern solutions by early next week. we will maintain a dry
forecast at this time with warmer temperatures returning by early
next week.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through saturday/...
morning convection to our west is slowly decaying, leading to
some high cirrus across the area this afternoon. vfr conditions
currently exist at all taf sites and should remain until shower
and thunderstorms activity begins to ramp up this evening and
tonight. expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop west to
east across the area this evening around 3z, starting at tol.
have thrown in prob30 for -tsra from 3-5z, given the likelihood
of thunderstorms and possible mvfr conditions occurring. have
included mentions of vcts and vcsh starting around the 4-6z
timeframe through 7-10z elsewhere, for all other taf sites,
given the uncertainty of how thunderstorm development unfolds
throughout the evening and overnight. mvfr ceilings and
visibilities could be possible with some of these showers and
thunderstorms.

south-southwest winds have started to pick up across the area
this afternoon with sustained winds at most taf sites between
10-15 kts with higher gusts of 20-25 kts. these gusty
conditions will continue through the evening and overnight
before turning northwesterly and weakening tomorrow morning.

.outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and scattered
thunderstorms late wednesday morning.

&&

.marine...
southerly to southwest winds will increase later today 15 to 20
knots over the lake as a low pressure system moves from the great
lakes region towards quebec by tonight. winds may get close to small
craft advisory criteria late this afternoon and evening but will
hold off on any headlines and let the day shift take one more look
at the latest guidance on wind speeds. a cold front will move across
the lake tonight and shift the winds to the northwest 15 to 20 knots
on wednesday. waves will also build along the lakeshore with the
northwest winds. again, we may need a small craft advisory for
wednesday with wave heights building in the nearshore waters. high
pressure builds over the lake late wednesday night into thursday
with lighter winds. winds will remain kinda light and somewhat
variable thursday night into friday. another cold front will move
across the lake late on saturday with a shift to northerly winds
this weekend 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 5 am edt wednesday for lez142>148.
small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 am edt
wednesday for lez149.

&&

$$
synopsis...sefcovic


day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1139 am cdt tue sep 03 2019

valid 031630z - 041200z

...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the midwest
and great lakes...

...summary...
scattered severe thunderstorms are expected mainly during the late
afternoon to evening hours across parts of the great lakes and
midwest. a few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all
possible.

...midwest/great lakes...
an upgrade to enhanced risk could still be warranted for portions of
the region later today pending convective/observational trends.
however, as mentioned in the prior (13z) outlook discussion,
short-term guidance continues to generally sub-optimally depict
and/or remains slow to adjust to the influence of ongoing
convection, which casts some uncertainty regarding the convective
scenario later today. this is principally with respect to the
thermodynamic environment and related likelihood and
north-northeastward extent of appreciable moistening and
destabilization later today, coincident with a notable deep-layer
wind field. morning observations including 12z sounding and wsr-88d
vwp data sample deep-layer winds that are very strong by late-summer
standards, particularly at a latitude around southern lake michigan
and northward including wisconsin/michigan.

beneath a respectable elevated mixed layer, seasonably rich
low-level moisture (with around 70f surface dewpoints) is prevalent
at late morning across eastern iowa, southern wisconsin, western
illinois near and ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. this
moisture will steadily advect eastward today, with the morning
convection/residual cloud cover potentially effectively
reinforcing/delaying an eastward-shifting warm front toward and
across lower michigan and northern indiana. boundary-layer heating
will probably be of more limited duration with north/northeast
extent across lower michigan, but will be greater with southwest
extent into illinois. a strongly unstable air mass should develop
initially near lake michigan southwestward across illinois, with
greater uncertainty in the degree of buoyancy farther north across
lower michigan.

at least isolated, mid-to-late afternoon deep convective
redevelopment will probably occur with the approach of a cold front
from western lower michigan into northern illinois, with deep-layer
winds well-supportive (40-50 kt effective) of initial supercells.
hail/damaging wind potential aside, low-level shear/srh will be
maximized near the effective warm front and within the increasingly
narrow warm sector with northward extent across lower michigan.

although short-term forecast uncertainty lingers as previously
discussed, on presumed/probable air mass recovery a respectable
potential does exist for a couple of tornadoes, including some
possibility of a strong tornado, aside from an increasing risk for
damaging winds this evening. severe risks currently appear most
probable to occur across northern indiana and southern lower
michigan, and possibly into northern/western ohio late tonight. the
severe threat should wane overnight as the primary shortwave trough
becomes increasingly separated from the lingering buoyancy plume
over the midwest.

...east-central/northeast florida coast...
hurricane dorian is forecast to move northward and remain offshore;
reference nhc for the latest details. this will maintain most of the
florida atlantic coast in the tornado-unfavorable western periphery
of dorian. nevertheless, some enlargement to the low-level hodograph
combined with weak instability might support a couple of rotating
cells capable of a brief tornado through tonight.

...deep south texas...
reference nhc for the latest details regarding tropical depression
seven, which may gradually strengthen/organize over the far western
gulf of mexico. a modest low-level strengthening of easterly winds
on its northern periphery could influence low-topped supercell
potential and possibly some tornado risk into wednesday.

..guyer/nauslar.. 09/03/2019

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 2000z

12:02 p.m.

This morning started sunny, but now, it's cloudy with low clouds and low-ish light.


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
908 am edt tue sep 3 2019

lez142>144-162>164-ohz003-006>009-017-018-027-041315-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-erie-hancock-seneca-wyandot-
908 am edt tue sep 3 2019

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie, north central ohio
and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the area late
this evening. there is a slight risk of severe weather with
thunderstorms with wind gusts to 60 mph and large hail as the
primary threats. an isolated tornado is also possible. timing will
be late from about 8 pm tuesday through 2 am wednesday in nw ohio.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.

11:15 a.m.

Dorian's max sustained winds have decreased a lot over the past 24 to 48 hours. Now down to 110 mph. But the forecast predicts no more decreasing in max sus winds over the next couple days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 27.1N 78.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 32.1N 79.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 35.3N 75.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 40.5N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 48.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN FINALLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GROWING IN SIZE...
...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES ON
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...27.1N 78.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to South Santee
River, South Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Cape Lookout,
North Carolina.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of South Carolina
from north of Edisto Beach to the South Santee River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from north of South Santee River
to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended north to Edisto Beach,
South Carolina.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter
Inlet, Florida.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Lantana,
Florida has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Watch from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch from Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet FL to South Santee River SC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River SC to Cape Lookout NC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC
* North of South Santee River SC to Duck NC
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 78.6 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slightly
faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected
later today and tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast by
Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous
Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island
through this evening. The hurricane will then move dangerously
close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday
evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday
night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late
Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Data from aircraft and buoys indicate that the hurricane is growing
in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95
km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from Air Force
Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue on
Grand Bahama Island through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area as early as Wednesday and could spread
northward within the watch through Thursday.

In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through today. Along the coast of
northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to the Flagler/Volusia County Line FL...3 to 5 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach
through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along
the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday
into Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Recent radar and aircraft data show that Dorian has finally begun to
move northwestward, but dangerous winds and life-threatening storm
surge will continue over Grand Bahama Island for much of today. The
eye has become cloud filled in infrared and visible satellite
imagery. While aircraft and radar data indicate that the eye has
increased in size, it is also a bit more ragged. Recent reports
from reconnaissance aircraft and data buoys indicate that overall
wind field of the hurricane is slowly expanding, while the peak
winds have come down a little more. The latest reports from the
aircraft support an initial intensity of 95 kt. As Dorian moves
near the east coast of Florida during the next day or two, little
overall change in intensity is anticipated. After that time,
increasing shear should result in a gradual decrease in the peak
wind speed while the hurricane gains latitude and grows in size.
The official forecast is in good agreement with the intensity
consensus models.

The initial motion estimate is 320/2 kt. A shortwave trough moving
into the Great Lakes region is forecast by the global models to
amplify a deep-layer trough along the east coast of the United
States on Wednesday. This should allow Dorian to begin moving
slightly faster toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours,
followed by a northward and then northeastward motion near or over
the coasts of South and North Carolina. After moving offshore of
the Outer Banks, Dorian should get caught in the mid-latitude
westerlies and accelerate northeastward. The NHC track is along the
western edge of the interpolated track models through 36 hours,
closer to what is depicted in the various global fields. After that
time, the official forecast is near a blend of the faster GFS and
slower ECMWF models.

Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall
along the Florida east coast, the increasing size of Dorian's wind
field along with any deviation to the left of the forecast track
will bring hurricane-force winds onshore along portions of the
Florida east coast.

The new forecast has necessitated numerous changes to watches
and warnings along the southeastern United States coast.

Key Messages:

  1. Dangerous winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
    Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain
    in shelter.

  2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
    along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia
    and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's
    center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the
    arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
    advice given by local emergency officials.

  3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
    winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina.
    Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
    emergency officials.

  4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the
    Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic
    coast during the middle and latter part of the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 27.1N 78.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 32.1N 79.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 35.3N 75.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 40.5N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 48.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Links

https://appalachian-baby-design.myshopify.com/collections/baby-cardigans/products/hill-holler-cardigan-kit
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1786/2391/products/1011_c_Crohet_lambs_ear_cardigan_1024x683_2_540x.jpg?v=1489440216
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/093608.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.thedailybeast.com/forest-bathing-forget-weed-this-is-colorados-hot-mind-bending-trend
https://www.schoolhousepress.com/about-us

https://thefederalist.com/2019/09/03/obama-defending-npr-reporters-question-trump-g7-reinforces-medias-bias-problem/
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/liberal-fec-chair-targets-online-news-she-considers-fraudulent
https://www.cnet.com/news/facebook-experimenting-on-hiding-likes-report-says/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i-can-t-breathe-there-s-no-escape-hatch-dramatic-mayday-call-from-california-boat-on-fire/ar-AAGHVta?li=BBnbcA1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irma
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina

China sows disinformation on Hong Kong using porn accounts on Twitter (qz.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20865292

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20863460

https://www.notechmagazine.com/2019/09/off-grid-solar-powered-zero-battery-refrigerator.html

Life in an Internet Shutdown (nytimes.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20864001


Tired of Stack Overflow (arp242.net)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20859332

I don't know. This decade, I have received a ton of help on many technical issues from Stack Overflow. I use Google to execute a search, and usually, SO threads appear. I sort through the threads and comments, and most of the time, I find the helpful solutions.


Curl Cookbook (catonmat.net)
https://catonmat.net/cookbooks/curl
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20859787


"Why California May Go Nuclear (forbes.com)"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/09/03/why-california-may-go-nuclear/

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20866697

Conservationists need to really make peace with the fact that the only way out of climate change involves building a very, very strong nuclear energy portfolio. This is difficult for people because it requires engaging in politics because these things are only as safe as they are well maintained. But actually, we do a surprisingly good job in America at keeping our nuclear plants running rather well, and we should be investing in many, many more.


the easiest way to be misinformed about weather is to read a media article.

"As Rising Heat Bakes U.S. Cities, The Poor Often Feel It Most"
https://text.npr.org/s.php?sId=754044732

In the summer of 2018 in Baltimore, when the heat index reached 103 degrees ...

What kind of sentence is that? How do editors approve that sentence? What is the writer implying? I infer that everyday for at least three months, the heat index for Baltimore reached at least 103 degrees.

Did the heat index reach 103 degrees on one day or at least 90 days?

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/02/us/politics/trump-dorian.html

... Hurricane Katrina, a Category 5 storm that killed more than 1,833 people in New Orleans ...

Katrina did not hit the U.S. as a Cat 5 in 2005. It hit LA/MS area as a Cat 3. Katrina was a Cat 5 well out into the Gulf. Irma was a Cat 5 before hitting the Keys as a 3 and 4.

The majority of deaths in New Orleans were due to levees failing, thanks to corrupt state and municipal governments that failed to upgrade the levees 10 to 30 years earlier when governments were advised that the levees needed enhancing. New Orleans lies mostly below sea level. Why would state and/or municipal governments divert levee money to other projects?

Irma hit the an island in the Florida Keys as a Cat 4. When the next island in the Keys was hit, Irma was a Cat 3. Irma did not hit mainland U.S. as a Cat 5.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/01/politics/donald-trump-category-5-hurricane-dorian/

More journalistic malpractice. Puerto Rico is not a state. It's a U.S. territory.

The media intentionally creates misleading stories that attempt to make readers infer that Cat 5 storms have struck the mainland of the the United States.


"'Details Are Irrelevant': Biden Says Verbal Slip-Ups Don't Undermine His Judgment"

https://text.npr.org/s.php?sId=756872790

uh, okay.

Biden is prone to flubs and gaffes, and has been for years. Most recently, the Washington Post reported that a dramatic story he told about the war in Afghanistan conflated and confused facts from multiple different incidents.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-he-campaigns-for-president-joe-biden-tells-a-moving-but-false-war-story/2019/08/29/b5159676-c9aa-11e9-a1fe-ca46e8d573c0_story.html

one of the latest polls showed that the dem primary is a three-horse race: biden, warren, and sanders. three "old" wealthy white people.


"Texas Gunman Who Killed 7 Had Been Fired Just Hours Before Shootings"
https://text.npr.org/s.php?sId=756772750

"25 Victims Found, 9 People Missing After Diving Boat Catches Fire In California"
https://text.npr.org/s.php?sId=756720390


https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-feminist-capitalist-professor-under-fire-11567201511

A Feminist Capitalist Professor Under Fire

The students who demand her firing, Camille Paglia argues, take prosperity for granted, are socially undeveloped, and know little about Western history. Who’s Moses?


There are better ways to save journalism
http://blogs.harvard.edu/doc/2019/09/01/journalism-2/

https://mobile.twitter.com/dsearls/status/1168543203429163009

https://stratechery.com/2019/privacy-fundamentalism/

https://mobile.twitter.com/jason_kint?p=s

https://cyber.harvard.edu/lists/arc/projectvrm/2019-08/msg00126.html


FreeBSD on the Lenovo Thinkpad (davidschlachter.com)
https://www.davidschlachter.com/misc/t480-freebsd
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20863465


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_windspeed_climatology

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D6.html


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7423189/Devastating-photos-destruction-left-Hurricane-Dorian-battered-Bahamas.html


The media need fact-checked. The national U.S. political media are proving to be one of the worst aspects of the United States.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/shameful-trump-labor-appointee-forced-to-resign-after-bloomberg-portrays-sarcastic-facebook-post-as-anti-semitic

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/09/ben-penns-bad-faith-hit-job-on-leif-olson/

https://www.mediaite.com/news/bloomberg-law-roundly-criticized-for-report-on-trump-labor-officials-sarcastic-facebook-post-appalled/

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/trump-labor-aide-quits-after-anti-semitic-facebook-posts-surface

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/bloombergs-ben-penn-just-slimed-a-government-employee-for-his-hilarious-joke-at-paul-nehlens-expense

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/labor-department-official-leif-olson-bloomberg-anti-semitic-sarcasm

"How A Media Outlet Turned a Trump Appointee Who Mocked Alt-Right Anti-Semites Into an Anti-Semite"
https://www.tabletmag.com/scroll/290615/how-the-media-turned-a-trump-appointee-who-mocked-alt-right-anti-semites-into-an-anti-semite

"How mocking anti-Semitism got a Trump official falsely accused of actual anti-Semitism"
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/3/20847587/leif-olson-department-labor-anti-semitism-paul-nehlen-bloomberg

https://mediagazer.com/190903/p9#a190903p9

@yair_rosenberg: Leif Olson, a Trump labor official, sarcastically mocked the anti-Semitic critics of Paul Ryan, and their conservative media enabler Breitbart. Bloomberg took those posts, selectively cropped them, missed the joke, and forced his resignation. My latest: https://www.tabletmag.com/...

Erik Wemple / @erikwemple: Asked Bloomberg for a comment on the @benjaminpenn story on Leif Olson. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/ ... The response is unsurprising and highly disappointing: https://twitter.com/...

Erik Wemple / @erikwemple: @benjaminpenn This signals that Bloomberg isn't considering changes to a story that slimes Olson with “anti-Semitic Facebook posts” that are not anti-Semitic.

Ben Shapiro / @benshapiro: Nothing says 'I'm a great journalist' like defending your garbage journalism by spilling private texts all over your Twitter feed to pretend you're a victim

the author of the journalism malpractice:

https://mobile.twitter.com/benjaminpenn/status/1168852447688871941?p=p

This is the latest in a series of mishaps under the Trump administration personnel vetting system. What makes this one remarkable is that Olson's Facebook page was public to his non-friends. Any cursory screening of his social media accounts could've uncovered the anti-Semitism.

except that it was not anti-semitism.

Robby Soave / @robbysoave: The post is not anti-Semitic. It's the opposite of anti-Semitic. It's making fun of anti-Semites. What is wrong with you? https://twitter.com/...

it's likely that olson did not resign on his own. he was probably forced out and made to resign.


Sources: to attract media outlets, TikTok has been sending some a newsletter previewing hashtags it plans to promote on its Discover tab over the following week

https://digiday.com/media/tiktok-courts-publishers-weekly-newsletter-previewing-trending-hashtags/

nobody would be surprised if the lemming media industry decided to enslave itself to another silo.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/03/tucker-carlson-washington-post-noticed-story-that-it-broke-joe-biden/


"ESP32/ESP8266 Wi-Fi Attacks (github.com)"
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20867758


"How the Media Can Help Prevent Mass Shootings"

https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/how_the_media_can_help_prevent_mass_shootings

Whah? Uh?

Sensationalized TV coverage of mass shootings may encourage more of them.

Ah yes, sensationalized TV coverage. That's why I consider television to be the worst medium for consuming information, such as weather and news.

In the days and weeks following a mass shooting, television news programs saturate audiences with coverage of the tragedy, often focusing on the shooter.

An enlightened and evolved citizenry do not obtain news from TV.


fishing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzIXG3NJ9TU
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=charlie+brewer+slider+fishing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTxY7mColgI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr8esLK2860
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qipf1iGqueE
https://www.google.com/search?q=billy+westmoreland+fishing&source=lnms&tbm=vid&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjjmcv8vrXkAhXQmq0KHU27CyoQ_AUIFigA&biw=1024&bih=583
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4J2StsevBw
https://www.bassresource.com/bass-fishing-forums/topic/167218-remembering-billy-westmoreland/
https://www.google.com/search?q=billy+westmoreland+spinning+rod&tbm=isch&source=univ&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiR0IrVvrXkAhUBlKwKHcGfCU4QsAR6BAgHEAE
https://www.in-fisherman.com/editorial/finesse-fishing/154456
https://www.bassmaster.com/blog/billy-westmoreland
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJEQtPa5eRw
http://sawv.org/wren/update/2019/09/03/links-and-notes-tue-sep-3-2019.html