Links and Notes - Sun, Aug 18, 2019

9:54 p.m.

The rain has ended or it's only raining very lightly. The rain intensity was not as hard as the mid-afternoon storm. The radars, however, showed a wide area of moderate to heavy rain, but that's not what we experienced.

Currently, radar shows us under light or very light rain, and that's occurring. But we experienced two big flashes of lightning over the past couple minutes, especially the second one. Wow. Straggler lightning.

9:07 p.m.

Raining harder now. Light to moderate, based upon the sound. Maybe moderate. I have the front door open.

md 1798 concerning severe thunderstorm watch 599... for portions of central/eastern in and western/central oh

mesoscale discussion 1798
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0802 pm cdt sun aug 18 2019

areas affected...portions of central/eastern in and western/central
oh

concerning...severe thunderstorm watch 599...

valid 190102z - 190200z

the severe weather threat for severe thunderstorm watch 599
continues.

summary...an isolated strong/gusty wind threat should continue
across severe thunderstorm watch 599 this evening. a gradual
weakening trend with ongoing storms should occur over the next
couple of hours.

discussion...a line of storms ahead of a cold front will continue
eastward across parts of the oh valley this evening. this convection
produced multiple measured severe and damaging wind gusts earlier
this evening across central in. however, recent radar imagery has
shown outflow surging ahead of the line across east-central in into
west-central oh. a reservoir of weak to moderate instability exists
downstream of this ongoing activity, but a gradual reduction of
mlcape is expected this evening with the loss of daytime heating. in
addition, stronger mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough
over the great lakes will remain mostly displaced to the north of
this region, which should limit effective bulk shear and overall
storm intensity. still, isolated strong/gusty winds producing
occasional damage remain possible over the next couple of hours
across mainly western portions of severe thunderstorm watch 599 (far
eastern in and western oh).

..gleason.. 08/19/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...iwx...ind...

lat...lon 39588595 39788564 40118546 40788542 41628443 41778294
41668260 40828277 39888364 39318451 39328578 39588595

9:04 p.m.

No wind. Light rain. A good bit of lightning. The line of storms seems to be weakening. Hopefully.

8:55 p.m.

No wind at the moment. The calm before the storm? Radar shows the line on our doorstep, but I don't hear much thunder.

The line bends in Lucas County toward the west. I don't like bends in storm lines.

We should at least have a period of heavy rain and maybe some 30 to 40 mph-plus wind gusts.

I'm going to put our windows down.

8:49 p.m.

More wind gusts. It's windy at times. Gusts to around 30 mph. Distant thunder.

This could be the worst thunderstorm activity of 2019 thus far for us, at least wind-wise.

8:45 p.m.

Winds increased about 10 minutes ago. It's breezy. Cool breezes. Probably downdrafts from approaching storms and storms to the north of us in Monroe County.

A small line of storms did form out ahead of the main line.

8:46 p.m. good wind gust. I don't like hearing that with all of these leaves, acting like sails on these large oak trees.

Parts of Monroe and Lenawee counties are under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

The hi-def radar is not showing much detail at the moment right now. Maybe big storms are interfering.


special weather statement
national weather service cleveland oh
825 pm edt sun aug 18 2019

ohz003-006>008-190130-
wood-ottawa-sandusky-lucas-
825 pm edt sun aug 18 2019

...a line of strong thunderstorms will affect ottawa...northwestern
sandusky...wood and lucas counties...

at 822 pm edt, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near ottawa lake to near stryker.
movement was east at 40 mph. wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size
hail are possible with these storms. the storms are expected to move
across lucas and wood counties over the next hour. these storms may
intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and
available television stations for additional information and
possible warnings from the national weather service.

locations impacted include...
toledo, bowling green, perrysburg, oregon, sylvania, rossford,
waterville, northwood, whitehouse, genoa, woodville, holland, weston,
elmore, maumee, ottawa hills, walbridge, pemberville, millbury and
haskins.

lat...lon 4172 8387 4173 8346 4173 8345 4172 8347
4170 8346 4169 8343 4169 8335 4171 8334
4164 8323 4162 8317 4124 8347 4130 8388
time...mot...loc 0022z 267deg 39kt 4179 8370 4145 8440

$$

jamison

7:13 p.m.

At least three Common Grackles, one Northern Flicker, and one adult American Robin foraged on our backyard. Back on Wednesday, four or five robins, both adults and youngsters, foraged around our home. That was the first time that I had seen that many robins in our yard in over a week.

No rain for us since the 2pm hour heavy thundershower. But a new line of storms have formed to the west. If the line holds together, it might reach us in two to three hours. After dark, like between 9:30 p.m. and 11:00 p.m., unless something forms out ahead of the line, which can happen.

SPC issued a new MD a short while ago.

md 1796 concerning severe thunderstorm watch 599... for portions of northern in...southern lower mi...and northern oh

mesoscale discussion 1796
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0542 pm cdt sun aug 18 2019

areas affected...portions of northern in...southern lower mi...and
northern oh

concerning...severe thunderstorm watch 599...

valid 182242z - 190015z

the severe weather threat for severe thunderstorm watch 599
continues.

summary...an isolated severe threat will persist mainly across
western and eastern portions of severe thunderstorm watch 599 this
evening.

discussion...in the wake of storms earlier today, additional
convection has recently developed along a cold front across southern
lower mi into northern in. a shortwave trough will continue moving
eastward across this region through the evening, with modestly
enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds present. these storms will
approach the western bounds of severe thunderstorm watch 599 over
the next couple of hours. overall storm intensity remains somewhat
unclear with prior convective overturning and the atmosphere
attempting to destabilize early this evening. regardless, there
appears to be some potential for an isolated severe hail/wind threat
across parts of northern in, southern lower mi, and northwestern oh
early this evening as these storms continue eastward. a small
westward extension in area for severe thunderstorm watch 599 to
include more of northern in and northwestern oh could be warranted
if storms strengthen substantially.

farther east, a small cluster persists over northeastern oh in a
moderately unstable airmass. these storms should continue to pose an
isolated severe threat as they move eastward into northwestern pa.

..gleason.. 08/18/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...iwx...

lat...lon 40788654 40988686 41678595 42058541 42048462 41678354
41368251 41508059 40958059 40958145 40618453 40788654

4:17 p.m.

N. IN. NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for:

Northeastern Putnam County
Southeastern Henry County

It's the same cell that caused the Cle NWS to issue the warning for parts of Wood and Hancock counties.

4:09 p.m.

The cluster of storms has decreased, but one strong cell exists. The weather radio alarm sounded a moment ago. The Cle NWS issued a Severe Thuderstorm Warning for the southern part of Wood County and the northern part of Hancock County.


Special Weather Statement
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WOOD AND SOUTHWESTERN LUCAS COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR... At 344 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Weston in Henry County, or 10 miles west of Bowling Green. These storms are moving east around 25 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these storms. These storms will move east into Wood and southern Lucas County over the next half hour. These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for northwestern Ohio. Locations impacted include... Bowling Green, Fostoria, Swanton, Perrysburg, Rossford, Waterville, Northwood, Whitehouse, North Baltimore, Holland, Weston, Maumee, Walbridge, Pemberville, Millbury, Haskins, Luckey, Bradner and Grand Rapids.
Start: 03:25 PM, Sun, Aug 18, 2019
End: 04:15 PM, Sun, Aug 18, 2019
More info

3:29 p.m.

The Severe Thunderstorm warning for parts of Defiance and Henry counties has weakened below severe limits, and the warning will be allowed to expire at 3:30 p.m.

I think that I heard thunder. Some rain exists at the southwest corner of Lucas County, not related to the main cluster of storms.

Next up for that Defiance-Henry counties storm is Lucas and Wood counties, which are covered by the Cle NWS. Defiance and Henry counties are covered by the N. IN. NWS office.

3:25 p.m.

Weather radar sounded again. This time for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch that includes Lucas County.

The ugly storm in western Ohio, near Defiance continues to produce warnings. It seems to be paralleling the Maumee River, toward the E-NE. The storm is over Henry County. It deserved to be monitored. Parts of Lucas County will get impacted by this storm. The question is whether the storm maintains its strength. It's actually a cluster of cells, tightly grouped over multiple western Ohio counties.

md 1792 concerning severe potential...watch possible for portions of northeast in into northern oh

mesoscale discussion 1792
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0202 pm cdt sun aug 18 2019

areas affected...portions of northeast in into northern oh

concerning...severe potential...watch possible

valid 181902z - 182100z

probability of watch issuance...40 percent

summary...strong storms could produce damaging winds across parts of
northeast in into northern oh this afternoon and evening.

discussion...thunderstorms are quickly developing along an outflow
boundary left by morning mcs. strong differential heating along the
boundary and a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints low to mid 70s)
has resulted in moderate instability downstream. steep low level
lapse rates and a plume of moderately steep midlevel lapse rates
overlie this region, which could support damaging winds given the
marginally sheared environment. an additional severe thunderstorm
watch may be needed across parts of northeast in into northern oh
soon.

further north into parts of southern lower mi,
continued/redeveloping severe threat is a bit more uncertain given
convection that moved across the area during the morning and early
afternoon hours. however, weak instability and dewpoints in the
upper 60s still remain across this area, along with stronger
effective shear. hi-res guidance suggests storms could redevelop
later this afternoon or evening as the airmass recovers and the main
upper shortwave trough ejects over the area. whether the boundary
layer can recover and support a renewed severe threat remains
uncertain and this may need to be addressed separately later this
afternoon/evening.

..leitman/thompson.. 08/18/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...iln...dtx...iwx...grr...ind...

lat...lon 41618119 42118100 42688159 42868267 42658406 41128606
40378622 39928581 39828521 40098427 40968266 41618119


severe thunderstorm watch outline update for ws 599
nws storm prediction center norman ok
325 pm edt sun aug 18 2019

severe thunderstorm watch 599 is in effect until 1000 pm edt
for the following locations

ohc003-005-007-011-021-023-033-035-037-039-041-043-055-063-065-
069-075-077-083-085-091-093-095-099-101-103-107-109-113-117-123-
125-133-135-137-139-143-147-149-151-153-155-159-161-169-173-175-
190200-
/o.new.kwns.sv.a.0599.190818t1925z-190819t0200z/

oh
. ohio counties included are

allen ashland ashtabula
auglaize champaign clark
crawford cuyahoga darke
defiance delaware erie
geauga hancock hardin
henry holmes huron
knox lake logan
lorain lucas mahoning
marion medina mercer
miami montgomery morrow
ottawa paulding portage
preble putnam richland
sandusky seneca shelby
stark summit trumbull
union van wert wayne
wood wyandot

2:34 p.m.

Rain ended, I think. Water drips from the oak trees.

The smaller cell may get near us soon. I heard thunder that sounded like it came from the west.

Radar shows the second, smaller cell possibly staying south of us. This cell will move through South Toledo, maybe Maumee, and Central Toledo.

2:32 p.m.

Statements via the Dark Sky data.


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Lucas County in northwestern Ohio... * Until 300 PM EDT. * At 157 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Swanton, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect damage to trees and power lines. * Locations impacted include... Toledo, Swanton, Oregon, Sylvania, Waterville, Whitehouse, Holland, Maumee, Ottawa Hills and Berkey. HAIL...1.25IN WIND...60MPH
Start: 01:57 PM, Sun, Aug 18, 2019
End: 03:00 PM, Sun, Aug 18, 2019
More info

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR LUCAS COUNTY... At 222 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Holland, or near Toledo, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. Quarter size hail was reported 1 mile east of Holland. Another thunderstorm is developing west of extreme southern Lucas county and has the potential to produce gusty winds and heavy rain. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect damage to trees and power lines. Locations impacted include... Toledo, Swanton, Oregon, Sylvania, Waterville, Whitehouse, Holland, Maumee, Ottawa Hills and Berkey. HAIL...1.25IN WIND...60MPH
Start: 02:24 PM, Sun, Aug 18, 2019
End: 03:00 PM, Sun, Aug 18, 2019
More info

Severe Weather Statement
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR LUCAS COUNTY... At 222 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Holland, or near Toledo, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. Quarter size hail was reported 1 mile east of Holland. Another thunderstorm is developing west of extreme southern Lucas county and has the potential to produce gusty winds and heavy rain. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect damage to trees and power lines. Locations impacted include... Toledo, Swanton, Oregon, Sylvania, Waterville, Whitehouse, Holland, Maumee, Ottawa Hills and Berkey. HAIL...1.25IN WIND...60MPH
Start: 02:21 PM, Sun, Aug 18, 2019
End: 03:00 PM, Sun, Aug 18, 2019
More info

2:31 p.m.

Rain has nearly ended. Only very light is falling now.


severe weather statement
national weather service cleveland oh
224 pm edt sun aug 18 2019

ohc095-181900-
/o.con.kcle.sv.w.0184.000000t0000z-190818t1900z/
lucas oh-
224 pm edt sun aug 18 2019

...a severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 300 pm edt
for lucas county...

at 222 pm edt, a severe thunderstorm was located over holland, or
near toledo, moving east at 25 mph.

hazard...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. quarter size
hail was reported 1 mile east of holland. another
thunderstorm is developing west of extreme southern lucas
county and has the potential to produce gusty winds and
heavy rain.

source...radar indicated.

impact...people and animals outdoors will be injured. expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. expect
damage to trees and power lines.

locations impacted include...
toledo, swanton, oregon, sylvania, waterville, whitehouse, holland,
maumee, ottawa hills and berkey.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. seek shelter inside a well-built structure. stay away from
windows.

torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

lat...lon 4162 8388 4172 8388 4173 8346 4162 8350
4162 8357 4157 8362 4155 8368 4153 8371
4148 8372 4147 8375 4150 8389
time...mot...loc 1822z 265deg 20kt 4165 8368

hail...1.25in
wind...60mph

$$

lombardy


severe weather statement

severe weather statement
national weather service cleveland oh
224 pm edt sun aug 18 2019

ohc095-181900-
/o.con.kcle.sv.w.0184.000000t0000z-190818t1900z/
lucas oh-
224 pm edt sun aug 18 2019

...a severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 300 pm edt
for lucas county...

at 222 pm edt, a severe thunderstorm was located over holland, or
near toledo, moving east at 25 mph.

hazard...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. quarter size
hail was reported 1 mile east of holland. another
thunderstorm is developing west of extreme southern lucas
county and has the potential to produce gusty winds and
heavy rain.

source...radar indicated.

impact...people and animals outdoors will be injured. expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. expect
damage to trees and power lines.

locations impacted include...
toledo, swanton, oregon, sylvania, waterville, whitehouse, holland,
maumee, ottawa hills and berkey.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. seek shelter inside a well-built structure. stay away from
windows.

torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

lat...lon 4162 8388 4172 8388 4173 8346 4162 8350
4162 8357 4157 8362 4155 8368 4153 8371
4148 8372 4147 8375 4150 8389
time...mot...loc 1822z 265deg 20kt 4165 8368

hail...1.25in
wind...60mph

$$

lombardy

2:29 p.m.

Rain intensity has decreased, now light to moderate.

And the rain is rapidly diminishing. Now only light rain is falling.

2:27 p.m.

Rain intensity has decreased some back to moderate-to-heavy. It's still pouring.

And now it's raining very hard again. Very heavy rainfall occurring, but the southwestern sky is getting brighter. This heavy rain should end within five minutes.

2:24 p.m.

Very heavy rainfall now. And small hail, approx 1/4-inch in diameter falling too.

2:22 p.m.

Weather radio alarm sounding again. The N. IN. NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for parts of counties in western Ohio, such as Defiance. A line of new cells is forming from northwest Ohio to southern Illinois. The line has only started forming in the past half hour or so.

Our rain intensity is mod-hvy and maybe heavy. It's pouring. Yeah, it's heavy rainfall now. Little to no wind.

2:19 p.m.

Moderate rain falling. If it only stays like this, it will be a good rainfall for the tomatoes and lawn. Radar shows moderate-to-heavy rain intensity in the cell that is still mainly to the west of us. The leading edge is over us now. The under is distant still and only occasional, which is good.

2:14 p.m.

Starting to rain lightly. Thunder is still distant. Sky is cloudy, not ominous looking.

2:12 p.m.

The distant thunder is more constant. The sky has been cloudy with low clouds for more than an hour or much of the mid-day. On the latest hi-def radar loop. the cell appears to be stronger than a few minutes ago. And a tiny separate cell formed behind the main cell, which is located over Sylvania, move E-NE.

2:05 p.m.

Uh, oh. A strong thunderstorm may hit West Toledo. Although the cell looks rather benign on radar. It also has weakened some in the past few minutes. It looks like a moderate rain shower. I can hear distant thunder. It could still have leftover wind gusts.


severe thunderstorm warning
ohc095-181900-
/o.new.kcle.sv.w.0184.190818t1757z-190818t1900z/

bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service cleveland oh
157 pm edt sun aug 18 2019

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a

hazard...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

source...radar indicated.

impact...people and animals outdoors will be injured. expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. expect
damage to trees and power lines.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. seek shelter inside a well-built structure. stay away from
windows.

torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

lat...lon 4162 8388 4172 8388 4173 8346 4162 8350
4162 8357 4157 8362 4155 8368 4153 8371
4148 8372 4147 8375 4150 8389
time...mot...loc 1757z 278deg 14kt 4161 8389

hail...1.25in
wind...60mph

$$

lombardy


special weather statement
national weather service cleveland oh
104 pm edt sun aug 18 2019

ohz003-006-181800-
wood-lucas-
104 pm edt sun aug 18 2019

...an area of strong thunderstorms will affect northern wood and
lucas counties...

at 103 pm edt, strong thunderstorms were clustered near fayette, or 7
miles south of morenci, moving east at 30 mph.

winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

this storm will be near...
swanton around 140 pm edt.
whitehouse around 150 pm edt.
waterville around 155 pm edt.
perrysburg, rossford and holland around 200 pm edt.

other locations impacted by this storm include millbury, grand
rapids, luckey, walbridge, pemberville, haskins, tontogany, berkey,
stony ridge and neapolis.

lat...lon 4172 8388 4173 8346 4171 8347 4171 8345
4170 8346 4169 8344 4170 8344 4169 8343
4169 8341 4141 8342 4140 8388
time...mot...loc 1703z 274deg 27kt 4162 8425


Special Weather Statement issued August 18 at 1:04PM EDT by NWS Cleveland

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WOOD AND
LUCAS COUNTIES...
At 103 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Fayette, or 7
miles south of Morenci, moving east at 30 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.
This storm will be near...
Swanton around 140 PM EDT.
Whitehouse around 150 PM EDT.
Waterville around 155 PM EDT.
Perrysburg, Rossford and Holland around 200 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Millbury, Grand
Rapids, Luckey, Walbridge, Pemberville, Haskins, Tontogany, Berkey,
Stony Ridge and Neapolis.

1:06 p.m.

md 1788 concerning severe thunderstorm watch 597... for portions of lower michigan...northeast indiana...northern ohio

mesoscale discussion 1788
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1147 am cdt sun aug 18 2019

areas affected...portions of lower michigan...northeast
indiana...northern ohio

concerning...severe thunderstorm watch 597...

valid 181647z - 181815z

the severe weather threat for severe thunderstorm watch 597
continues.

summary...a few strong storms with gusty winds remain possible over
the next hour or so across eastern portions of ww597 and vicinity. a
downstream ww is not expected at this time.

discussion...regional radar, satellite, and lightning data all
suggest an overall weakening trend with the clusters of multicell
thunderstorms moving across portions of lower michigan, far
northeast indiana and far northwest ohio. the environment downstream
of these thunderstorms is characterized by mlcape of near 1000 j/kg
and effective bulk shear values of 20-30 knots, which could foster
some periodic storm organization with a threat of gusty/locally
damaging winds -- especially along the leading edge of the outflow
across lower michigan and northern ohio. at this time, severe
coverage/intensity appears to be too limited for a downstream ww.
however, radar/observational trends will continue to be monitored
for any restrengthening.

cam guidance also suggest the potential for thunderstorms to
redevelop this afternoon across this area. however, the current
thunderstorms have not been modeled well, which renders low
confidence in whether these areas will be able to destabilize in the
wake the current activity.

..elliott.. 08/18/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...cle...dtx...apx...iwx...grr...

lat...lon 44158501 44238299 44068216 43798193 43358182 42278212
41808225 41308252 41188338 41158415 41198517 41438526
42368485 43318494 44158501


spc ac 181630

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1130 am cdt sun aug 18 2019

valid 181630z - 191200z

...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
from southern il to lower mi...

...summary...
the main severe-thunderstorm threat today will be damaging winds
from illinois into eastern lower michigan.

...great lakes to the ozarks this afternoon...
a northern stream shortwave trough will progress eastward from
northern mn across the upper great lakes, as midlevel heights begin
to rise over the southern plains. in advance of the northern stream
trough, multiple remnant mcvs now from mo to wi will move eastward
to il and lower mi during the afternoon. ongoing convection in
lower mi has weakened slowly the past couple of hours. some
strengthening is possible early this afternoon along the leading
edge of the outflow into eastern lower mi as the low levels
destabilize with surface heating, though confidence is not
particularly high. larger buoyancy will reside farther south into
in/il where boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s persist beneath
the eastern extent of an elevated mixed layer. convective
inhibition will weaken as surface temperatures warm into the upper
80s to lower 90s this afternoon, and new thunderstorm development is
expected along the remnant outflow boundaries from mo into il/in.
rather modest vertical shear with up to 40 kt midlevel flow will
generally favor multicell clusters with damaging winds, though
midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep for some hail
threat.

storm development is a little less certain from southern mo into
eastern ok, given the ongoing midlevel convection and persistent
clouds. there is some potential for development this afternoon in
the differential heating zone near the southern influence of the mcv
over mo. some warm advection will persist into this evening a bit
farther to the northwest, though storm evolution/intensity is still
in question.

...ny/pa this afternoon...
a weak midlevel trough will move east-northeastward from the lower
great lakes across ny/pa this afternoon. a broken band of storms
now forming in northwest pa is likely the precursor to a loose band
of storms that will persist through the afternoon and spread into
ny. multicell clusters and/or low-end supercell structures will
pose some threat for damaging gusts this afternoon.

..thompson/elliott.. 08/18/2019

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 2000z

10:15 a.m.

It could be a stormy day today in the Toledo region. It already is this morning. Heavy thundershowers/storms moved through Wood County a short while ago. It's now a warned storm for parts of Seneca and Sandusky counties. It was warned for parts of Wood and Hancock counties too, but it moved away from those areas.

And a moment ago, the same storm caused another Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

Further west, heavy thundershowers/storms exist over southwest MI, north central IN, northeast IL, and over western Lake Michigan. Mesoscale Discussions were issued for those areas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also exists for those areas too. None of the immediate Toledo area counties are under the watch.

The Storm Prediction Center showed the Toledo area under the Slight Risk for severe weather today. We are located in the southeast corner of the rectangle-shaped Slight Risk description.

From this morning's HWO, issued by the CLE NWS:

a few strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon and evening across northern ohio into northwest pennsylvania. the best potential for severe weather will be across far northwest ohio between 2 pm and 7 pm this afternoon. large hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph will be the main threats. anisolated tornado threat can`t be ruled out.

Today's forecast:

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Excerpts from the 9:40 a.m. AFD, issued by the Cle NWS:

low confidence forecast update this morning as poorly modeled convection enters the western part of the forecast area. hi-res guidances continues to insist on the demise of these storms quickly this morning, however the environment remains somewhat favorable for maintenance given effective bulk shear values of 25-30 kts and mucape values around 1500 j/kg. storms are outrunning better mid level lapse rates, which may preclude intensification, however expect the diminishiment of this near severe convection to be slow over the next hour or two. left the rest of the forecast mainly in tact given the uncertainty of the ongoing convection`s impact on this afternoon/evening.

the main show we will be watching will be the next piece of energy moving out of the midwest into lower michigan by this afternoon. high-res models indicate a better potential for organized storms developing across our northwestern area with either a squall line or broken line of storms. thermodynamics will be better this afternoon for a few severe storms with large hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph. an isolated brief tornado threat can`t be ruled out but the potential is very low. the storms will likely weaken by or after 00z this evening.


Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Aug 18, 2019 9:52 am EDT
Weather : Light Rain
Temperature : 74 F
Humidity : 76%
Wind Speed : SSW 8 mph
Barometer : 29.94 in
Dewpoint: 66 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Aug 18, 2019 9:53 am EDT
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 76 F
Humidity : 76%
Wind Speed : SW 13 mph
Barometer : 29.96 in
Dewpoint: 68 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Aug 18, 2019 9:57 am EDT
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 79 F
Humidity : 67%
Wind Speed : SSW 6 mph
Barometer : 29.92 in
Dewpoint: 67 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Aug 18, 2019 9:28 am

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southwest wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 80.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 79.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 82.


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
940 am edt sun aug 18 2019

.synopsis...
at the surface a stationary boundary located just north of the
lake will linger near the area over the next several days. a
series of weak troughs will move along this feature bringing on
and off chances for storms through the middle of this week. a
cooler and drier weather pattern will follow for the end of the
week.

&&

.near term /through monday/...
low confidence forecast update this morning as poorly modeled
convection enters the western part of the forecast area. hi-res
guidances continues to insist on the demise of these storms
quickly this morning, however the environment remains somewhat
favorable for maintenance given effective bulk shear values of
25-30 kts and mucape values around 1500 j/kg. storms are
outrunning better mid level lapse rates, which may preclude
intensification, however expect the diminishiment of this near
severe convection to be slow over the next hour or two. left the
rest of the forecast mainly in tact given the uncertainty of the
ongoing convection`s impact on this afternoon/evening.

the main show we will be watching will be the next piece of
energy moving out of the midwest into lower michigan by this
afternoon. high-res models indicate a better potential for
organized storms developing across our northwestern area with either
a squall line or broken line of storms. thermodynamics will be
better this afternoon for a few severe storms with large hail up
to quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph. an
isolated brief tornado threat can`t be ruled out but the
potential is very low. the storms will likely weaken by or after
00z this evening.

there is low confidence on how the convection plays out for the
rest of tonight. some models continue another round of
convection developing near the lake by 06z tonight and other
models keep the weather relatively quiet for the rest of the
night. models do show another broken line of convection
developing monday afternoon across northern ohio into northwest
pennsylvania.

&&

.short term /monday night through wednesday night/...
the surface cold front will make little progress southeast through
our forecast area and slow down to a east-west oriented stationary
front somewhere over our forecast area on tuesday. the airmass south
of the boundary will be favorable for thunderstorms, with dew point
in the low 70s and temperatures expected to rise to the mid to upper
80s. mucape will be around 2000 to 3000 j/kg. wind shear is not
expected to be very high, with only 15 to 25 knots of deep layer
shear present on tuesday. am expecting disorganized convection to
develop along and south of the stationary front with minor threats
of severe weather and flooding if there is training of convection.
following tuesday`s convection, the stationary front is expected to
lift north as a warm front as low pressure develops over the midwest
on tuesday and propagates northeast across the great lakes and into
ontario by 12z wednesday. there will be potential for severe weather
on wednesday but it depends a lot on the timing of the cold front.
deep layer shear of 30 to 35 knots will allow for more organized
convection to develop and if the cold front moves through our area
in the evening, then there is potential for severe weather.

&&

.long term /thursday through saturday/...
high pressure will slowly build in from the northwest on thursday
and will be situated over our area on friday. the airmass will be
characterized by cooler and drier conditions with high temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s and dew points in the upper 50s. high
pressure will move on to our east on saturday, which will induce
warm southerly advection, though still keeping the drier air intact.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
mostly vfr conditions can be expected during the next 24 to 30
hours with the exception around any scattered convection that
impacts a taf location. the best chance for brief drops in
ceilings and visibilities will be in the mid to late afternoon.
we have prob30 groups covering this potential. isolated severe
convection can`t be ruled out. mostly quiet weather is expected
again tonight into monday morning. winds will remain south to
southwesterly 5 to 11 knots. there could be a few gusts this
afternoon up to 18 knots or so. gusty and erratic winds will be
very possible near any storm as well.

outlook...intervals of non-vfr possible primarily with
thunderstorms possible monday and again on wednesday.

&&

.marine...
generally west to southwest flow will persist over the lake through
monday morning with 5 to 10 knot winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots
by sunday evening. a cold front will move southeast across the lake
on monday afternoon, slowing down and becoming a west-east oriented
stationary front just south of the lake monday night into tuesday.
this will cause westerly winds on monday morning to veer to easterly
winds by tuesday morning. easterly winds are only expected to be
around 5 knots or so through tuesday. this stationary front will
lift as a warm front tuesday night, causing winds to veer to
southerly wednesday night and then to southwesterly by wednesday
morning. another cold front is expected to move east across the lake
on wednesday afternoon, causing winds to veer more to the north by
wednesday night. right now our forecast calls for 10 to 15 knots of
northerly winds on wednesday night through thursday. however, with a
warm lake and cold air advection, there`s a good chance winds could
overperform and thus result in higher waves. wave heights will near
small crafty advisory criteria wednesday into thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...griffin
near term...greenawalt/griffin
short term...saunders
long term...saunders
aviation...griffin
marine...saunders


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
355 am edt sun aug 18 2019

lez061-142>149-162>169-ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-paz001>003-190800-
lake erie open waters from ripley to buffalo ny-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie open waters from willowick to geneva-on-the-lake oh-
lake erie open waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie open waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-ashtabula inland-
hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-wyandot-crawford-
richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
355 am edt sun aug 18 2019

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie, north central
ohio, northeast ohio, northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

a few strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon
and evening across northern ohio into northwest pennsylvania. the
best potential for severe weather will be across far northwest ohio
between 2 pm and 7 pm this afternoon. large hail up to quarter size
and damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph will be the main threats. an
isolated tornado threat can`t be ruled out.

.days two through seven...monday through saturday.

the probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
OHC143-147-181500-
/O.NEW.KCLE.SV.W.0183.190818T1417Z-190818T1500Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1017 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4120 8342 4137 8332 4138 8285 4100 8283
4099 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 1417Z 263DEG 32KT 4140 8314 4110 8334

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

Saunders


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
OHC143-147-181500-
/O.NEW.KCLE.SV.W.0183.190818T1417Z-190818T1500Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1017 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4120 8342 4137 8332 4138 8285 4100 8283
4099 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 1417Z 263DEG 32KT 4140 8314 4110 8334

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

Saunders


http://toledoweather.info/mesoscale1785.html

md 1785 concerning severe potential...watch likely for northern illinois...southern wisconsin...southern lake michigan...northern indiana...and southwest michigan

mesoscale discussion 1785
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0544 am cdt sun aug 18 2019

areas affected...northern illinois...southern wisconsin...southern
lake michigan...northern indiana...and southwest michigan

concerning...severe potential...watch likely

valid 181044z - 181215z

probability of watch issuance...80 percent

summary...organized cluster of thunderstorms continue east this
morning across northern illinois and southern wisconsin. a gradual
increase in thunderstorm intensity through the morning should result
in the need for a severe thunderstorm watch at some point this
morning.

discussion...well-organized cluster of thunderstorms is moving east
across southern wisconsin and northern illinois this morning. this
activity is located to the southeast of a mesoscale convective
vortex (mcv) located to the east of minneapolis. despite recent
measured winds being below severe criteria, this cluster of storms
is moving into an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment,
where most-unstable cape values are around 2500 j/kg. deep-layer
shear is being augmented by the circulation associated with the mcv
and is between 35-45 knots. further destabilization of the
atmosphere is expected with the onset of diurnal heating, which
should act to remove convective inhibition by mid morning. thus, a
gradual increase in thunderstorm intensity is expected through the
morning, with an attendant increase in the threat for damaging
thunderstorm winds and hail. additionally, more isolated
thunderstorms are developing farther east along the northern edge of
the better low-level moisture. as the airmass further destabilizes,
the severe potential of these thunderstorms should also increase.
therefore, the region will be monitored for a severe thunderstorm
watch, which appears likely sometime this morning.

..marsh/edwards.. 08/18/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...iwx...grr...lot...ilx...mkx...dvn...arx...

lat...lon 43539011 42728538 40658564 41089110 43539011


http://toledoweather.info/mesoscale1787.html

md 1787 concerning severe thunderstorm watch 597... for southeast wisconsin...northeast illinois...northwest indiana...and southwest michigan

mesoscale discussion 1787
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0740 am cdt sun aug 18 2019

areas affected...southeast wisconsin...northeast
illinois...northwest indiana...and southwest michigan

concerning...severe thunderstorm watch 597...

valid 181240z - 181445z

the severe weather threat for severe thunderstorm watch 597
continues.

summary...thunderstorms continue this morning across the region.
moderate instability and sufficient shear should continue to support
a severe threat this morning.

discussion...initial line of thunderstorms has weakened considerably
this morning as increasing precipitation ahead of the line --
stemming from thunderstorms that developed south-southwest of
chicago -- has acted to stabilize the airmass across north-central
illinois and southern wisconsin. the strongest thunderstorm cluster
from this original band of storms is currently located across
southeast wisconsin and will have the potential to pose a severe
threat for another couple hours before moving east over lake
michigan.

as previously mentioned, additional thunderstorms developed to the
south-southwest of chicago, ahead of the original line of storms.
these thunderstorms are within a better severe thunderstorm
environment than those to the north given less convective coverage
allowing most-unstable cape values to approach 2000 j/kg, and thus
have a greater potential to pose a severe wind or hail threat. at
present, these storms will move across the greater chicago metro
over the next 1-2 hours, with hail and wind threats likely. these
storms will continue east-northeast through the morning, eventually
moving over lake michigan.

..marsh.. 08/18/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...dtx...iwx...grr...lot...ilx...mkx...dvn...

lat...lon 41049091 41209108 41419104 41449078 41599076 41599087
42029080 42069013 42489062 42508982 43228976 43318965
43308901 43208900 43188789 43358783 43408645 43468638
43458608 43288607 43298559 43408553 43438437 42808436
42778417 42068412 42058483 41528482 41538517 40998536
40968558 41048583 40928619 40908692 40738713 40728752
40988754 40998824 41098827 41088891 40908890 40928904
41078907 41098930 41138931 41128957 41228965 41228981
41118988 41149040 41049043 41049091


day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0756 am cdt sun aug 18 2019

valid 181300z - 191200z

...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
southern upper great lakes and vicinity...

...summary...
the main severe-thunderstorm threat today will be damaging winds,
isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible.

...synopsis...
in mid/upper levels, a belt of zonal to gently cyclonic mean flow
will be observed through the period across the northern half of the
conus. as a cyclone moves slowly northeastward across northern mb,
the trailing shortwave trough should pivot from the dakotas across
mn and lake superior to northeastern on. as that occurs,
convectively aided/induced vorticity lobes should move eastward
across the upper great lakes. this includes a shortwave
perturbation associated with a pronounced mcv now located over
southern wi, and extending south-southwestward behind a band of
convection across southern wi and northwestern il.

the 11z surface chart showed a low near eau, related to the mcv,
with wavy warm front extending across western/southern wi and
southern lower mi. this front should drift northward before being
overtaken by an ongoing mcs and additional convection developing
farther east. a cold front was drawn from southeastern mn across
southeastern ne and northwestern ks. by 00z this front should reach
eastern upper mi, central wi, southern ia, central/southwestern ks,
and southeastern co. by 12z this front should extend from northern
lower mi to northern il, central/western mo, northwestern ok,
becoming quasistationary northwestward into southeastern co.

...great lakes vicinity...
an intermittently organized band of convection, continuing eastward
from overnight activity across ia, has persisted across the
mississippi river the past couple hours. some of this activity may
strengthen across the remainder of the northern il/southern wi/lake
michigan region eastward over northern in and southern lower mi, as
the foregoing/inflow-layer air mass destabilizes from a combination
of warm advection and diabatic surface heating. recovery behind
newer convection over northeastern il is uncertain in magnitude and
northern extent. see spc severe thunderstorm watch 597 and related
mesoscale discussions for near-term details.

in concert with seasonally steep low/middle-level lapse rates and
rich low-level moisture (60s to near 70 f surface dew points), areas
of 2000-3000 j/kg preconvective mlcape are expected to develop.
this will occur amidst difluent but generally westerly mid/upper
winds, enhanced on the mesoscale by height falls related to the mcv,
and a plume of large-scale dcva/lift preceding the shortwave trough.
as the heating continues, mlcinh effectively will vanish over
northeastern il and eastward through midday, potentially fostering
additional convective development and severe potential in and near
the watch area, regardless of the morphology of the initial mcs.
subsequent aggregation and upscale growth should shift the primary
threat of damaging winds across lower mi and northern in. in
addition, areas of relatively maximized effective srh may support
localized tornado potential in qlcs circulations.

...ozarks to portions of ok...
isolated to scattered thunderstorms, with highly variable coverage
in space and time, are possible through the overnight period across
this region. activity should be concentrated mainly near outflow/
differential-heating boundaries area-wide and near a weak
convergence zone over the southwestern ok/northwest tx region this
afternoon. isolated severe gusts and hail may occur, with well-
mixed air below lfc developing this afternoon, and persisting into
tonight above a slowly stabilizing near-surface layer, aiding in
maintenance of hail/gusts to surface.

a relative concentration in severe potential also may become
apparent this afternoon over portions of this region, especially in
the ozarks/eastern ok/southeastern ks area. beneath steep midlevel
lapse rates, pockets of relatively convectively undisturbed
boundary-layer moisture and strong heating may support mlcape around
4000 j/kg. uncertainties regarding location, orientation, and
strength of supportive mesoscale boundaries preclude a more-
concentrated area of unconditional probabilities at this time.

..edwards/marsh.. 08/18/2019

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630z

Links

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/politics/stephen-miller-trump-immigration/

https://abcnews.go.com/US/ohio-white-nationalist-anti-semite-arrested-threatening-shoot/story?id=65040200

http://toledoweather.info/more-radars-and-maps.html
https://www.memeorandum.com/
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20702404
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20730675
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20727126

Plastic Free July (paulrhayes.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20729026

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20728437
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20729769
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20730324
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20730255
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20725022
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20720630