Links and Notes - Tue, Aug 6, 2019

11:45 a.m.

A moderate thundershower was ending now. It lasted only 5 to 10 minutes, but it was a nice dousing for the lawn, tomato plants, and the grass seed that I planted yesterday over part of our previous produce garden rectangle. About 60 percent of the former garden area will be a half-circle flower bed with the rest hopefully growing lawn grass. I scattered grass seed that I bought from Massarant's, and then I covered the grass seed with Scotts Lawn paper-based patch that also contains grass seed.

Speaking of tomato plants, I first noticed blooms on the plants last Monday, and yesterday, I noticed the first small fruits forming on a couple plants. Exciting and impressive, considering that in mid-June, the plants were only one to two inches tall.

Radar showed thundershowers/storms forming over northwest Ohio. We could experience off and on thundershowers for most of the afternoon. The scattered cells and area of rain were moving E-NE, and at the moment, most of it could miss West Toledo, slipping to our north and east.

SPC showed nearly all of Ohio, including the Toledo area of northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan, under a Marginal Risk for severe weather.


I may have to include rain-related forecast on the front page of my http://toledoweather.info web app.

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for each day for today, tomorrow, and two days now, and for the days in total.

For today, Wed, and Thu, the QPF predicts that most of our rainfall will fall between 8am today to 8am tomorrow with total rainfall 0.25 to 0.50 inches predicted with some areas in the region possibly receiving 0.75 inches.

This is similar to how the Storm Prediction Center makes convective outlooks and mesoscale discussions for severe weather.

"WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook"

We are under a Marginal Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point.

Forecast discussion excerpts:

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1139 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2019

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Aug 06 2019 - 12Z Wed Aug 07 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS...THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND OVER
COASTAL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...Ohio Valley into the Northern Mid-Atlantic...
A cold front is forecast to move southeast from the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley this
period. Fairly well defined upper difluence expected ahead of the
associated amplifying upper trof over the Ohio
Valley...accentuating large scale lift in the axis of 1.75"+ pw
values in the vicinity of this front. Model consensus is for the
potential for moderate to locally heavy precip totals from the
Ohio Valley in the Mid-Atlantic...although details vary with
respect to the location of the max amounts. The convection is
expected to be fairly progressive...reflected in the HREF
probabilities that are high for 1"+ amounts but drop off
significantly for higher totals. The previous marginal risk area
was expanded southward to cover the range of model solutions with
respect to the timing of precip moving south and location of
heaviest totals.


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Aug 6, 2019 9:27 am

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Northwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. West wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 80.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 80.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 63.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
940 am edt tue aug 6 2019

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-paz001>003-071345-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
940 am edt tue aug 6 2019

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio, northeast
ohio, northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

showers and thunderstorms will expand across the area today. a few
of the strongest thunderstorms may produce wind gusts to 50 mph or
hail to the size of a penny. thunderstorms will be most likely
between 12 pm and 8 pm.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a cold front on
thursday afternoon. large hail and damaging winds will possible along
with locally heavy rainfall.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation may be needed.


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1014 am edt tue aug 6 2019

.synopsis...
a slow moving trough will move east across the region through
wednesday. another trough will swing across the area on thursday
with a cold front settling south thursday night. high pressure will
build over the region on friday and remain through the weekend.

&&

.near term /through wednesday/...
there will be two main areas where convective initiation will
be focused: along the outflow boundary that was generated by
last nights mcs and the lake breeze front, will be generated
over the next few hours. streamlines show an area of confluence
extending from northeast indiana to southern ontario. this is
likely where outflow boundary is, and we can already start to
see some thunderstorm develop on radar in henry and putnam
counties and further cumulus development out ahead in wood and
hancock counties. nam nest has this development occurring but
to a greater extent than what is currently ongoing. other cams
have additional development this afternoon along and south of
the lakeshore with the lake breeze front. the highest chance for
thunderstorms with this forcing will be areas areas near
sandusky. ahead of these areas of forcing, mostly clear skies
are allowing the sun to build up the instability, with low level
lapse rates expected to be around 8 to 8.5 c/km and mlcape up
to 1000 to 1500 j/kg. however, there isn
t much wind shear to
work with, keeping thunderstorm type to primarily multicellular.
locally strong downburst winds from thunderstorms will be the
primary factor to watch for today. pwat will be around 1.5 to
1.6 inches and dcape around 700 to 900, both of which are only
marginally favorable for severe downburst winds. later in the
afternoon, after thunderstorm coverage increases, multiple
interacting boundaries may increase the threat for flooding but
only if we get thunderstorms that train over the same area. pwat
won`t be especially high but storm motion is relatively low
with 850-300mb mean wind only around 20 knots.

previous discussion...
regional radars show a decaying mcs moving south across illinois
while a few showers and considerable cloud cover remain over lower
michigan. this activity is ongoing ahead of a shortwave trough
moving through the flow aloft and broad trough at the surface
extending from hudson bay. as this shortwave continues east today,
re-development is expected to occur. a few showers can already be
seen developing across northwest ohio and are expected to expand in
the vicinity of the lake breeze across northeast ohio into northwest
pennsylvania. some sun is expected before the cirrus shield thickens
allowing ml cape values of 1000-1500 j/kg to develop. deeper
moisture and better forcing will arrive from the west by mid-
afternoon bringing an expansion of showers and thunderstorms
continuing into tonight. coverage of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to be fairly high and most areas can expect to see rain
later today into tonight. went above guidance for highs at location
along and east of i-77 corridor where it will take longer for clouds
to thicken. thunderstorms today will produce locally heavy rain and
the storm prediction center has included the area in a marginal risk
for severe weather. deep layer sheer will generally be on the order
of 15-25 knots but upper level support may support a few stronger
storms this afternoon/evening.

another shortwave is expected to round the base of the upper trough
overnight and take on a slight negative tilt across western new
york/pennsylvania on wednesday. additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected on wednesday afternoon across the eastern
half of the forecast area. temperatures will drop back 5 degrees or
more from today`s highs across eastern areas on wednesday where
thunderstorms develop.

&&

.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
the short term begins thursday with models showing an upper low over
ontario and a trough digging southeast into the great lakes region.
an upper ridge will be over the southern plains. at the surface, a
cold front will be just to our northwest and is expected to move
through the region during the afternoon. will have high chance and
likely pops for showers and thunderstorms. best chance southeast
given timing of the front. friday the upper low moves ese to james
bay involving much of ontario and quebec. models show building high
pressure and drier, post cold front air across the region. during
the afternoon however a short wave will drop southeast across the
eastern lakes and possibly bringing enough moisture to combine with
lake instability with cool air aloft to create showers off the lake.
will have low chance pops for the traditional snow belt areas. will
continue the threat into friday night before drying out for saturday
as the high moves overhead. highs thursday in the lower 80s. friday
and saturday will be mostly in the mid and upper 70s.

&&

.long term /saturday through monday/...
models differ significantly through the long term and for now will
stick close to blended guidance and persistence which favor the
drier ecmwf. will have pops no greater than slight chance through
the period with partly cloudy skies. highs will be in the lower
80s.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions in place across the area this morning with
isolated showers already popping up across nw ohio. showers and
thunderstorms still expected to develop along the lake breeze
by 16-18z. additional showers and thunderstorms will develop
ahead of the approaching trough and move from west to east
during the 17-00z window. added tempo groups for thunderstorms
to all terminals except eri where convection may be just south
of the airport. the chance of thunderstorms does continue into
tonight but with lesser confidence. mvfr likely with brief ifr
possible in thunderstorms. wind gusts of 30 knots or higher is
also possible. southwest winds initially will shift off the lake
and be disrupted by thunderstorm and outflow boundaries during
the afternoon, eventually becoming southwest again late in the
period.

outlook...non-vfr possible in thunderstorms on wednesday
afternoon/evening in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
today expect mainly southwest flow at 5 to 10 knots ahead of an
approaching cold front moving through the central lakes. the cold
front will drop across the lake wednesday. winds will remain fairly
light however and do not expect any headlines. thursday however a
stronger cold front will cross the lake. current guidance suggests
15 to 20 knots from the west turning wnw in the afternoon with
highest winds central and east. current model forecasts for waves
suggests winds and waves will remain below small craft levels but am
thinking the east half will see four foot waves for a period of time
through the afternoon. thursday night through saturday expect
mainly northwest flow with building high pressure from the west.
winds friday, especially east could be enough for 3-4 foot waves
through the afternoon but otherwise, winds and waves will diminish
as high pressure moves overhead.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...kec
near term...kec/saunders
short term...tk
long term...griffin/tk
aviation...kec
marine...griffin/tk

Links

Switching from Common Lisp to Julia (2017) (tamaspapp.eu)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20614229

Germans Grow Frustrated with Their Slow-Poke Internet (wsj.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20615126

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/08/05/the-armed-wing-of-identity-politics

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/08/02/tulsi-gabbard-finally-a-democrat-worth-supporting/

claim: https://jewishinsider.com/2019/08/neo-nazis-boast-we-got-tulsi-in-the-debates/

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexstamos?p=s

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexstamos/status/1158782198763233281?p=p

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexstamos/status/1158392795687575554?p=p

In case you were wondering, it looks like the new host of 8chan and Daily Stormer will effectively be @voxility. It looks like Epik/Bitmitigate owns very little of their own hardware and instead rents Voxility's servers and AS.

https://mobile.twitter.com/voxility

https://mobile.twitter.com/voxility/status/1158767294073528320?p=p

https://mobile.twitter.com/voxility/status/1158739904899141632?p=p

https://mobile.twitter.com/CodeMonkeyZ?p=s

https://mobile.twitter.com/runasand - "Senior Director of Information Security at @nytimes."

https://mobile.twitter.com/CodeMonkeyZ/status/1158427489196052480?p=v

@CodeMonkeyZ you're in a position to introduce many people to Tor. Get a static "Install Tor Browser" page up and launch a few more onion mirrors until 8chan has a real non-cloud hosting solution (you need your own IP space, upstreams, hardware DDoS filtering)

"8chan's new provider BitMitigate goes offline (arstechnica.com)"

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/08/8chan-briefly-got-back-online-with-same-cdn-used-by-neo-nazi-daily-stormer/

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20625646


https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-city-businesses-struggle-to-keep-up-after-minimum-wage-increase-11565035475

New York City Businesses Struggle to Keep Up After Minimum Wage Increase


"Yelp Is Sneakily Replacing Restaurants’ Phone Numbers So Grubhub Can Take a Cut (vice.com)"

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/wjwebw/yelp-is-sneakily-replacing-restaurants-phone-numbers-so-grubhub-can-take-a-cut

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20625232 - over 200 comments

Top HN comment:

Yelp is such a slimy company.

First they wall off their mobile web reviews to try to force you to download their POS app, they have the whole extortion racket going trying to strongarm restaurants into paying for advertising, and now this.


Baking bread from a 4,500-year-old yeast from Ancient Egyptian pottery (twitter.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20624396


https://mediagazer.com/190806/p6#a190806p6

Sarah Palin's defamation lawsuit against New York Times, over an editorial that linked her to a 2011 mass shooting, is revived by a federal appeals court

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-new-york-times-palin-idUSKCN1UW1I3