AFD 1:56 am, Tue, Aug 6, 2019

060556
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
156 am edt tue aug 6 2019

.synopsis...
weak low pressure and its trough will move south across the
area tuesday. a stronger cold front will move southeast across
the area thursday. high pressure will build southeastward across
the western great lakes over the weekend.

&&

.near term /through tonight/...
aside from some dissipating low clouds and this high level
clouds drifting southeast across the area, conditions will be
quiet and dry for the overnight.

our attention will shift to the approaching upper level trough
and its associated pre-frontal trough. this trough axis along
with any left over convective boundaries moving into the area
from the central great lakes will generate thunderstorms on
tuesday. there may also be some impact of increased convergence
along a lake boundary east of cleveland into nw pa. this
convergence may generate thunderstorms very close to the lake
shore before drifting inland during the afternoon. the upper
level trough will then keep things going into tuesday night with
the coverage only slightly decreasing tuesday night.

guidance continues to go too cool across the region and have
gone above it for highs on tuesday. highs will be in the 80s on
tuesday. lows tonight and tuesday night will be in the 60s.

&&

.short term /wednesday through thursday night/...
an upper level ridge will continue to be located over the
southwestern u.s. and a trough across the eastern u.s. during
the mid week time frame. a shortwave in the mid level flow will
be moving across the eastern great lakes on wednesday as well as
a weak frontal boundary. scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be likely on wednesday. instability and shear will be very
limited, but can`t rule out an isolated strong storm. but, we
will mainly see just general thunderstorms with locally heavy
downpours and occasional lightning.

we will see a brief break in rain chances wednesday night into early
on thursday while we are in between systems. a slightly stronger
shortwave will round the base of the upper level trough over the
great lakes region late on thursday. we will see a strong cold front
move through thursday afternoon and evening with another round of
showers and thunderstorms.

the region will be in a deeper northwest flow by friday with a
canadian high building in across the upper midwest. drier and
slightly cooler air will be moving in for the end of the week. due
to colder air aloft because of the upper level trough overhead, the
only areas we will have to watch is downwind of lake erie across the
primary snowbelt region for scattered lake clouds and a slight
chance for a few lake effect rain showers for the end of the week.

&&

.long term /friday through monday/...
high pressure will be in control of the weather for saturday. we
still may see a slight chance for a few lake effect rain showers
downwind of the lake in the snowbelt regions as well as some lake
effect clouds. another weak frontal may try to move into the region
late sunday. temperatures will be comfortable and just a touch below
average for this time of year through the weekend.

&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions with mostly clear skies in place to start the taf
cycle. can not rule br at cak/yng in the 10-13z window but
confidence is low given light winds continuing overnight so did
not include in the tafs. otherwise complex of thunderstorms
weakening upstream near lake michigan will be monitored closely
today and likely contribute to convection. showers may develop
near tol as early as 15z then expanding eastward near the lake
breeze boundary. thunderstorms will increase in coverage by 17z,
likely impacting all terminals at some point during the
afternoon/evening. initial activity expected to drift south with
time, then expand from the west again late afternoon into the
evening as an upper trough arrives. mvfr likely with brief ifr
possible in thunderstorms wind gusts of 30 knots or higher also
possible. southwest winds initially will shift off the lake and
be disrupted by thunderstorms and outflow boundaries during the
afternoon, eventually becoming southwest again late in the
period.

outlook...non-vfr possible tuesday night then again wednesday
and thursday afternoon/evening in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.marine...
lake breezes this afternoon will become more southwesterly late this
evening and overnight 5 to 10 knots ahead of an advancing cold
front. southwest winds will increase 10 to 15 knots on tuesday and
tuesday night. winds will become somewhat variable on wednesday with
a weak front over the lake. winds will become more westerly by
thursday morning 10 to 15 knots. a stronger cold front will move
through on thursday with west to west-northwest winds increasing 10
to 20 knots. we will have to watch for higher waves along the
lakeshore as well close to small craft advisory thursday. high
pressure builds in for the end of the week with light northerly
winds 5 to 10 knots. colder air aloft may trigger some lake effect
showers across portions of the lake for the end of the week. there
may be an isolated waterspout or two given the upper level
setup. this will be something to watch later this week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...mm