Links and Notes - Sat, Jul 20, 2019

11:59 p.m.

Oh yeah, today, July 20, 2019, was the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon land/walk. I watched it with Mom and Dad on a black-and-white TV.

I was fascinated by NASA in the late 1960s into the early 1980s when the first space shuttle launched. I liked Skylab. I had models of the Apollo lunar module and of Skylab. Books about NASA, etc. I loved that stuff as a kid. It got me interested in astronomy.

But I'm shocked that humans have not landed on Mars. I thought for sure that humans would have visited Mars before the year 2000.

The rover missions to Mars that occurred in the 1990s were interesting. Maybe I'll be interested in space travel again when a human mission lands on the moon again, but I won't be that excited about it. I'll get interested when humans blast off for Mars.

NASA discussed landing humans on Mars back in the 1960s. It was a part of their long-term plan beyond Apollo, which included Skylab and the shuttle. Nobody thought that it would take this long before we would reach Mars.

11:52 p.m.

We went out this evening to Whiskey and the Wolfe and to Backyard Barbecue with Kim and Brent. Both locations are nearby. We arrived home about 15 minutes ago. We were out for four or five hours. It's amazing how much the temp and humidity decreased during our time inside the Whiskey and the Wolfe, our first visit.

No rain fell over West Toledo. It was stunning how that big area of rain and storms broke down early this evening. The SPC knows what's happening, thanks to sophisticated math models.

Dew point temps are still around 70, but the weather feels much better this evening.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 20, 2019 10:52 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 76 F
Humidity : 82%
Wind Speed : S 7 mph
Barometer : 29.85 in
Dewpoint: 70 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 20, 2019 10:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 77 F
Humidity : 79%
Wind Speed : SE 9 mph
Barometer : 29.87 in
Dewpoint: 70 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Date and Time: 11:45 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019
Summary: Light Rain
Air Temp: 77 F
Dew Point: 71 F
Humidity: 82 %
Wind Direction: Southwest
Wind Speed: 5 mph
Wind Gust: 7 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 79 F
Pressure: 29.84 inches
UV Index: Low : 0.0
Cloud Cover: 13 % : Mostly Clear
Precip Probability: 100 %
Precip Intensity: 0.04 : Light
Precip Type: rain
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: Precip is occurring over or near this location.
Nearest Precip Bearing:


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jul 20, 2019 9:29 pm

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. West wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Northeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph.

Tuesday: A slight chance of showers. Sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 61.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 84.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 86.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 67.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.


Light rain today through Monday, with high temperatures falling to 77°F on Monday.

Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - Possible light rain in the morning. Cloud cover: Mostly Clear. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 44 %. Low temp 76 at 07:00 AM. High temp 94 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 73. Humidity 68. Apparent high temp 105. Wind: West-Southwest at 7 mph. Sunrise: 06:18 AM. Sunset: 09:05 PM. Moon: 0.63 = Waning Gibbous.

Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - Possible light rain starting in the afternoon. Cloud cover: Partly Cloudy. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 77 %. Low temp 68 at 08:00 AM. High temp 80 at 12:00 PM. Dew point 70. Humidity 79. Apparent high temp 84. Wind: North-Northeast at 7 mph. Sunrise: 06:19 AM. Sunset: 09:04 PM. Moon: 0.66 = Waning Gibbous.

Mon, Jul 22, 2019 - Mostly cloudy throughout the day. Cloud cover: Mostly Cloudy. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 42 %. Low temp 59 at 06:00 AM. High temp 77 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 62. Humidity 70. Apparent high temp 77. Wind: North-Northeast at 8 mph. Sunrise: 06:20 AM. Sunset: 09:03 PM. Moon: 0.69 = Waning Gibbous.

Tue, Jul 23, 2019 - Partly cloudy throughout the day. Cloud cover: Mostly Clear. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 14 %. Low temp 63 at 06:00 AM. High temp 79 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 55. Humidity 62. Apparent high temp 79. Wind: North-Northwest at 9 mph. Sunrise: 06:21 AM. Sunset: 09:02 PM. Moon: 0.72 = Waning Gibbous.

Wed, Jul 24, 2019 - Clear throughout the day. Cloud cover: Clear. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 5 %. Low temp 63 at 06:00 AM. High temp 82 at 04:00 PM. Dew point 58. Humidity 64. Apparent high temp 82. Wind: West-Northwest at 6 mph. Sunrise: 06:22 AM. Sunset: 09:01 PM. Moon: 0.75 = Last Quarter Moon.

Thu, Jul 25, 2019 - Clear throughout the day. Cloud cover: Clear. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 2 %. Low temp 65 at 06:00 AM. High temp 83 at 04:00 PM. Dew point 60. Humidity 64. Apparent high temp 84. Wind: West-Southwest at 6 mph. Sunrise: 06:23 AM. Sunset: 09:00 PM. Moon: 0.78 = Waining Crescent.

Fri, Jul 26, 2019 - Clear throughout the day. Cloud cover: Clear. Precip type: . Precip probability: 0 %. Low temp 67 at 06:00 AM. High temp 84 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 62. Humidity 66. Apparent high temp 85. Wind: Southwest at 6 mph. Sunrise: 06:24 AM. Sunset: 09:00 PM. Moon: 0.81 = Waining Crescent.



Possible light rain starting tomorrow afternoon.

11:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-21T03:00:00Z - Icon: clear-night. Temp: 78. Apparent temp: 79. Wind: SSE 4 mph, gust: 4 mph. Precip type: . Precip probability: 0%. Precip intensity: . Cloud cover amt: 0%. Cloud cover desc: Clear. Humidity: 81%. UVI Index: Low.

12:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T04:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 77. Apparent temp: 78. Wind: WSW 5 mph, gust: 9 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 100%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 17%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Clear. Humidity: 83%. UVI Index: Low.

01:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T05:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 77. Apparent temp: 78. Wind: WNW 6 mph, gust: 13 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 75%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 5%. Cloud cover desc: Clear. Humidity: 84%. UVI Index: Low.

02:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T06:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 78. Apparent temp: 80. Wind: W 7 mph, gust: 19 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 3%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 17%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Clear. Humidity: 83%. UVI Index: Low.

03:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T07:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 79. Apparent temp: 83. Wind: SW 9 mph, gust: 23 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 4%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 30%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 82%. UVI Index: Low.

04:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T08:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 78. Apparent temp: 80. Wind: NNW 7 mph, gust: 19 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 5%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 30%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 84%. UVI Index: Low.

05:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T09:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 77. Apparent temp: 79. Wind: WNW 6 mph, gust: 15 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 5%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 29%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Clear. Humidity: 85%. UVI Index: Low.

06:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T10:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 77. Apparent temp: 78. Wind: W 6 mph, gust: 12 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 5%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 54%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 86%. UVI Index: Low.

07:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T11:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 76. Apparent temp: 77. Wind: NW 6 mph, gust: 10 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 4%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 46%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 88%. UVI Index: Low.

08:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T12:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 76. Apparent temp: 78. Wind: NNW 6 mph, gust: 9 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 4%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 38%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 87%. UVI Index: Low.

09:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T13:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 77. Apparent temp: 78. Wind: N 6 mph, gust: 8 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 4%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 40%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 86%. UVI Index: Low.

10:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T14:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 78. Apparent temp: 79. Wind: NE 6 mph, gust: 8 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 6%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 44%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 82%. UVI Index: Moderate.

11:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T15:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 79. Apparent temp: 82. Wind: NE 6 mph, gust: 7 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 8%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 59%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 79%. UVI Index: Moderate.

12:00 PM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T16:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 80. Apparent temp: 84. Wind: NE 7 mph, gust: 7 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 11%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 75%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 76%. UVI Index: Moderate.

01:00 PM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T17:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 80. Apparent temp: 83. Wind: NE 8 mph, gust: 8 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 16%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 70%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 75%. UVI Index: High.

02:00 PM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T18:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 79. Apparent temp: 82. Wind: NE 10 mph, gust: 10 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 30%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 79%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 76%. UVI Index: High.

03:00 PM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T19:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 78. Apparent temp: 79. Wind: NE 10 mph, gust: 10 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 40%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 86%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 76%. UVI Index: Moderate.

04:00 PM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T20:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 77. Apparent temp: 78. Wind: ENE 9 mph, gust: 10 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 43%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 92%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 75%. UVI Index: Moderate.

05:00 PM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T21:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 77. Apparent temp: 78. Wind: ENE 8 mph, gust: 9 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 43%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 96%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 73%. UVI Index: Moderate.

06:00 PM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T22:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 77. Apparent temp: 77. Wind: ENE 8 mph, gust: 10 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 39%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 94%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 72%. UVI Index: Low.

07:00 PM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T23:00:00Z - Icon: rain. Temp: 77. Apparent temp: 78. Wind: NE 7 mph, gust: 10 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 33%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 90%. Cloud cover desc: Cloudy. Humidity: 71%. UVI Index: Low.

08:00 PM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-22T00:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 77. Apparent temp: 77. Wind: NE 7 mph, gust: 11 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 29%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 86%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 70%. UVI Index: Low.

09:00 PM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-22T01:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 76. Apparent temp: 76. Wind: NE 6 mph, gust: 11 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 26%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 81%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 71%. UVI Index: Low.

10:00 PM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-22T02:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 74. Apparent temp: 75. Wind: NE 7 mph, gust: 10 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 25%. Precip intensity: Light. Cloud cover amt: 74%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 73%. UVI Index: Low.

5:01 p.m.

No surprise. Issued a bit earlier than I expected. I'm guessing that another one will be issued later that will include Toledo, but this is close enough.

http://toledoweather.info/images/mcd1548.gif

md 1548 concerning severe thunderstorm watch 531... for portions of central and southern lower michigan

mesoscale discussion 1548
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0344 pm cdt sat jul 20 2019

areas affected...portions of central and southern lower michigan

concerning...severe thunderstorm watch 531...

valid 202044z - 202245z

the severe weather threat for severe thunderstorm watch 531
continues.

summary...threat for isolated strong/damaging wind gusts will
continue in ww 531. greatest likelihood for these gusts will be in
east-central lower michigan. another round of convection may move
through later this evening, but a thoroughly overturned airmass
ahead of it leads to uncertainty with regard to how severe the
secondary line will be.

discussion...an ongoing line of convection continues to move
southeastward into central and southern lower michigan. this line
has become less organized in the last few hours with velocities
behind the leading convection trending downward as well as outflow
moving ahead of the convection per kgrr radar imagery. ahead of this
activity, upper 70s dewpoints have advected into a narrow corridor
of southwestern/south-central michigan. here, 2500-3500 mlcape may
support a few isolated strong updrafts with potential for damaging
wind gusts. farther north, in east-central michigan, the convective
line has shown better intensity on radar. a small area of
east-central michigan still contains modestly buoyant air (1000-2000
j/kg mlcape) and slightly higher deep layer shear (25-35 kts) where
isolated damaging wind gusts will remain possible.

a convective line now moving east through southern wisconsin will
likely move into southern lower michigan later this evening.
however, given the amount of convective overturning that has
occurred in that region, the intensity of this line in a few hours
is highly in question. should it encounter undisturbed warm sector
air, most likely along the southern michigan border, strong/damaging
wind gusts would be possible.

..wendt.. 07/20/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...dtx...apx...iwx...grr...

lat...lon 42268640 42568631 42928574 43308525 43868481 44348429
44368344 44018253 43208239 42308315 41868380 41878629
41948653 42268640

4:43 p.m.

I wonder if the tail end Charlie will sweep through the Toledo area. Two to three lines of storms may pass close to us.

4:36 p.m.

I did not realize that the SPC issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for much of the southern peninsula of Michigan, but it does not include Monroe and Lenawee counties. One county to the north of those counties, Washtenaw and Wayne are under the watch.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
215 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

Initial radar:

Current radar:

4:20 p.m.

Around 2:30 to 3:00 p.m., the sky was surprisingly clear with mainly some scattered high cloudiness. It's a windy afternoon. All this heat, humidity, wind, and a mostly clear sky seem like a bad mix. Even without the luxury of viewing radar images, it feels like a bad thunderstorm afternoon/evening/night.

Around 2:30 to 3:00 p.m., I went to Gordon Food Services to buy a big bag of small cube croutons. It's surprisingly how difficult it is to find such croutons. After returning, I made myself a tasty big salad consisting of greens, small purple carrots, and green onions from the Shared Legacy CSA. We have radishes from the CSA too, but I did not add them. I added shrooms that Deb bought somewhere. I topped the salad with olive oil, balsamic vinaigrette, coarse grey sea salt, and crushed pepper corns.

Anyway, during my drive to the store and back, I was surprised by the lack of cumulus and cumulus congestus clouds. It made me a bit nervous, maybe because I have been watching the radar with what has been moving southeast through Michigan.

Hopefully, it's only a line of moderate rainfall, maybe a thundershower when the line of storms reaches us. At least the SPC has not expanded the Slight Risk into northern Ohio, although we border it. The Enhanced Risk is too close for comfort.

It won't surprise me to see the SPC issue a Mesoscale Discussion for northern IN, southern MI, and northwest OH later.

4:18 p.m.

Excerpts from the latest AFD, issued by the Cle NWS:

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
351 pm edt sat jul 20 2019

.synopsis...
a ridge of high pressure will build northeast over the eastern
united states and linger through tonight. a cold front will
move south across the area sunday. high pressure will build east
out of the middle mississippi valley region tuesday to the ohio
valley by wednesday with below average temperatures.

&&

.near term /through sunday night/...
immediate term forecast remains conditional and uncertain, as a
long lived mcs moving into western mi seems to be tracking
southeast towards the area. as the past few days, hi res
guidance has been poor with handling the ongoing convection,
slow to assimilate the current radar trends. environmentally,
favorable conditions exist downstream of the mcs towards the
region, so would anticipate that the precipitation will make it
into the area in some form after 00z. the question is if the mcs
will be able to maintain a good cold pool/shear balance to
capitalize on the highly unstable environment that awaits ahead
of it. if the storms intensify tracking into southeast mi over
the next few hours, confidence would greatly increase in strong
to possible severe thunderstorms making into the northwest part
of the forecast area this evening, with damaging winds the
primary threat. for now, have upped pops into the mid chance
range, but may need another upward adjustment with the early
evening update depending on the radar trend at that point.

the convection should diminish overnight across the area, and
have diminished pops after 06z across the area. synoptic front
will push south into the area late overnight into tomorrow
morning. models are trending redevelopment of shower/storms
across the southern part of the area tomorrow afternoon/evening,
highlighted by the spc day 2 marginal risk. temperatures will
cool a bit behind the front across the area, although highs may
reach the lower 90s across the southern part of the forecast
area. the lingering high dewpoints will combine with the temps
to produce heat indices near 100. will hold off on extending any
heat headline for sunday at this point, with a good bit of
uncertainty with how the potential evening/overnight convection
impacts the southward movement of the synoptic front and the
temperature recovery tomorrow afternoon.

4:07 p.m.

Date and Time: 04:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019
Summary: Humid
Air Temp: 94 F
Dew Point: 74 F
Humidity: 52 %
Wind Direction: West-Southwest
Wind Speed: 10 mph
Wind Gust: 15 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 104 F
Pressure: 29.83 inches
UV Index: High : 7.0
Cloud Cover: 4 % : Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 127 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: North-Northwest

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 20, 2019 3:52 pm EDT
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 96 F
Humidity : 49%
Wind Speed : SW 14 mph
Wind Gust 21 mph
Barometer : 29.87 in
Dewpoint: 74 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 107 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 20, 2019 3:53 pm EDT
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 95 F
Humidity : 51%
Wind Speed : WSW 16 mph
Wind Gust 26 mph
Barometer : 29.88 in
Dewpoint: 74 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 106 F



The Enhanced Risk covers parts of southeast Michigan, maybe one county north of Monroe, which is still under the Slight Risk. We are still under the Marginal Risk.

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0248 pm cdt sat jul 20 2019

valid 202000z - 211200z

...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the southern great lakes...

...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the central high plains...

...summary...
severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected
late this afternoon into tonight across parts of iowa, southern
wisconsin into southern lower michigan and far northern illinois.
additional severe storms will be possible in parts of the central
high plains late this afternoon and early this evening.

...discussion...
several changes have been made to the outlook for this issuance.
the first change is to expand the enhanced risk area eastward across
all of south-central lower michigan. a line of severe thunderstorms
associated with wind damage will continue to move eastward across
the remainder of south-central lower michigan over the next few
hours. a tornado threat will also exist ahead of this line so the 5
percent tornado probability has also been expanded eastward. the
second change is to remove the enhanced risk area across southeast
minnesota, northeast iowa and parts of southwestern wisconsin. a
line of severe storms is moving eastward across southern wisconsin.
the severe threat should lessen behind this line where the enhanced
risk has been dropped. the third change to the outlook is to add a
marginal risk across parts of the mid-atlantic states where a pocket
of strong instability and steep low-level lapse rates are analyzed
by the rap. marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with
isolated cells that develop in the stronger instability. the last
change to the outlook is to remove thunder from parts of the
northern plains where the atmosphere is stable.

..broyles.. 07/20/2019

.prev discussion... /issued 1149 am cdt sat jul 20 2019/

...iowa/southern minnesota/wisconsin/lower michigan/illinois...
an intense bow echo capable of a heightened damaging wind risk/brief
tornado potential continues to quickly spread eastward at midday
across far east-central/northeast wisconsin toward lake michigan,
with this activity likely to cross the lake and continue into lower
michigan this afternoon, with other peripheral development expected
to the south within a destabilizing air mass.

farther the west, an eastward-accelerating squall line continues to
progress eastward along the iowa/minnesota (roughly 50 miles either
side) border. this will continue to favor the roughly west/east
outflow-reinforced boundary where the combination of
buoyancy/vertical shear is maximized. this complex will likely favor
a corridor near/south of the prior early-day mcs (first paragraph),
with an increasing damaging wind risk expected from southeast
minnesota/northeast iowa into southern wisconsin this afternoon.

other potentially severe storms may develop/expand southward tonight
across iowa/northern illinois near the southward-advancing front
where a reservoir of ample moisture/buoyancy will exist. some hail
will be possible, but damaging winds may be the most probable risk
even with a tendency for elevated storms late tonight.

...wyoming/colorado front range to central high plains...
across the central high plains, the initial frontal push will
support north-northeasterly surface winds this afternoon, with
upslope flow into the front range and raton mesa. mid/upper-level
winds will be weak from the west-southwest. initial storm
development and intensification is expected along/into the
foothills/i-25 corridor this afternoon with some hail/wind
potential, but a slow eastward-moving cluster may evolve over
east-central/southeast colorado with an increasing damaging wind
risk. this threat should eventually diminish towards late evening as
convection becomes increasingly undercut/elevated with strengthening
low-level stability behind a secondary frontal surge.

...lower great lakes/northeast states/new england...
in a moist/unstable air mass, isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of localized downbursts will be possible this
afternoon with maturing thunderstorm development in the lee of the
great lakes and/or near a northeast states surface trough. other
strong storms could move into northern new england late tonight.

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 0100z

3:40 p.m.

Date and Time: 03:30 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019
Summary: Humid
Air Temp: 94 F
Dew Point: 73 F
Humidity: 50 %
Wind Direction: Southwest
Wind Speed: 11 mph
Wind Gust: 13 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 103 F
Pressure: 29.83 inches
UV Index: Very High : 8.0
Cloud Cover: 5 % : Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 154 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: North

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 20, 2019 2:52 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 95 F
Humidity : 51%
Wind Speed : WSW 18 mph
Wind Gust 28 mph
Barometer : 29.87 in
Dewpoint: 74 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 106 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 20, 2019 2:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fair and Breezy
Temperature : 95 F
Humidity : 48%
Wind Speed : WSW 22 mph
Wind Gust 32 mph
Barometer : 29.87 in
Dewpoint: 72 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 104 F

2:05 p.m.

Date and Time: 02:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019
Summary: Humid
Air Temp: 93 F
Dew Point: 73 F
Humidity: 54 %
Wind Direction: Southwest
Wind Speed: 9 mph
Wind Gust: 13 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 102 F
Pressure: 29.86 inches
UV Index: Very High : 10.0
Cloud Cover: 0 % : Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 157 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: North

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 20, 2019 1:52 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 94 F
Humidity : 53%
Wind Speed : SSW 16 mph
Wind Gust 25 mph
Barometer : 29.87 in
Dewpoint: 74 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 105 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 20, 2019 1:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fair and Breezy
Temperature : 93 F
Humidity : 52%
Wind Speed : SW 21 mph
Wind Gust 29 mph
Barometer : 29.87 in
Dewpoint: 73 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 102 F


Some of this heavy rain appears not to be moving.

Holy crap. 6 to 8 inches of rain has fallen over this area with 2 to 4 inches more possible. WTF?

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
149 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

MIC085-105-210245-
/O.CON.KGRR.FA.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190721T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lake MI-Mason MI-
149 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LAKE AND MASON COUNTIES...

At 145 PM EDT, emergency management reported areas of flooding
ongoing across the warned area, specifically near the town of Irons.
6 to 8 inches of rain have fallen across much of Mason and Lake
Counties, with radar estimates and some unofficial reports of more
than 10 inches of rain so far. An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is
possible as several more rounds of storms move through during the
rest of the day.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Ludington, Baldwin, Ludington SP, Scottville, Luther, Fountain, Free
Soil, Freesoil, Chase, Custer, Nirvana, Wolf Lake, Idlewild, Irons,
Walhalla and Bristol.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4416 8598 4417 8557 4382 8556 4382 8643
4393 8645 4393 8643 4394 8643 4395 8644
4394 8646 4406 8651 4412 8643 4418 8639

$$

AMD


md 1544 concerning severe potential...watch possible for portions of central/southern lower michigan

mesoscale discussion 1544
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1243 pm cdt sat jul 20 2019

areas affected...portions of central/southern lower michigan

concerning...severe potential...watch possible

valid 201743z - 201945z

probability of watch issuance...60 percent

summary...a mature bowing segment will continue to move
east-southeastward into western lower michigan. damaging wind gusts
are expected to remain the primary threat with this activity.
another round of strong/severe convection is expected later in the
afternoon, more likely to impact southern lower michigan. a ww is
possible in the next hour or so and will likely cover both expected
scenarios.

discussion...a mature bowing segment has begun to cross lake
michigan and is expected to continue into portions of western
michigan. the strongest portion of the bow is moving
east-southeastward and will likely interact with an ongoing complex
of storms along a boundary in northwestern lower michigan. though
there is uncertainty with regard to how strong the bowing segment
will be after crossing the lake as well as what net effect storm
interactions will have, the potential for strong to severe wind
gusts is expected to continue. the most likely location for damaging
wind gusts will be along and just south of the roughly east-west
boundary just north of mount pleasant. farther south, the airmass
has remained capped with a tendency to have drier air mix down in
the wake of last evening's convection. however, upper-70s dewpoints
reside in northern indiana and may advect northward. this would
suggest that the threat for damaging wind gusts in southwestern
lower michigan would occur later this afternoon, perhaps with
secondary lines of convection across southeastern and/or
southwestern wisconsin. a ww is possible and likely will cover both
of the described scenarios.

..wendt/guyer.. 07/20/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...dtx...apx...grr...grb...

lat...lon 44768658 44388457 43648406 42588404 42188550 42418649
43418770 44318751 44738717 44768658

1:07 p.m.

It's warming up fast now, since the cloud cover broke up late this morning.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 20, 2019 12:52 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 90 F
Humidity : 62%
Wind Speed : SW 13 mph
Barometer : 29.88 in
Dewpoint: 75 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 101 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 20, 2019 12:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 92 F
Humidity : 54%
Wind Speed : SW 16 mph
Wind Gust 23 mph
Barometer : 29.88 in
Dewpoint: 73 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 101 F

Date and Time: 01:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019
Summary: Humid
Air Temp: 90 F
Dew Point: 74 F
Humidity: 60 %
Wind Direction: Southwest
Wind Speed: 8 mph
Wind Gust: 9 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 99 F
Pressure: 29.87 inches
UV Index: Very High : 10.0
Cloud Cover: 1 % : Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 27 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: North

12:39 p.m.

A few minutes ago, I closed the remaining first floor windows, except for one north facing window by the couch, since Barney is lying up on the back of the couch, looking out the window. He likes to bark at friend and foe. The living room thermostat temp read 82 degrees. Not bad. Floor fan is blowing on me. I'm relaxing in the living room, watching the Peaky Blinders, again.

12:12 p.m.

This morning, I roasted coffee beans. Late this morning, I hate a bowl of hot grain cereal and I drank a pour-over coffee, using beans that I roasted. I added local blueberries and local honey (Bench's farm) to my cereal. I drank the coffee black, as usual. All good stuff. I have no problem eating and drinking warm or hot things on a warm, humid day.

I did not install any window AC units last night nor this morning. The window fan temp in the living room said 82 degrees for much of the morning. 83 at 11:11 a.m. It now reads 84. I'm still comfortable in the living room. The hard part will probably be after 3:00 p.m.

Most of this morning was cloudy. It's mostly sunny now. The cloud cover broke up during the 11am hour.

The tomatoes have grown a lot this week, thanks to the hot, humid, sunny days and muggy nights and thundershowers that have provided soaking rains. It rained each day Monday through Thursday. No rainfall for West Toledo occurred yesterday. We might receive rain later tonight and tomorrow.

With all of this hot weather, I have not watered the tomatoes this week. This morning, I added wooden stakes to the tomato containers, and I tied some of the tomatoes to the stakes with plant tap. I think that some of the tomato plants are about to produce flowers.

The cool weather that's forecast for the next four days or so will slow things down a bit for the tomatoes. Low temps in the upper 50s and low 60s and highs around 80 won't promote the explosive growth seen this past week.

I wish that I had maintained a photograph journal of the tomato plant growth from tiny, thin stalks of one to two inches tall in mid-June when Deb brought the plants home from a co-worker to the leafy, shrubby, 15- to 22-inch tall stalks now.

The SPC's mid-morning CO added the Enhanced Risk for severe weather for west central and southwest lower Michigan as well as southern WI. The Slight Risk area was expanded to include the lower two thirds of the lower peninsula of MI. The Slight Risk stops at the OH-MI border by Toledo. We are in the Marginal Risk. The Cle NWS did not say anything about thunderstorm risks in its mid-morning HWO.


Date and Time: 12:15 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019
Summary: Humid
Air Temp: 86 F
Dew Point: 73 F
Humidity: 65 %
Wind Direction: Southwest
Wind Speed: 6 mph
Wind Gust: 6 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 93 F
Pressure: 29.89 inches
UV Index: Very High : 9.0
Cloud Cover: 0 % : Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 74 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: South-Southeast


Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 20, 2019 11:52 am EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 88 F
Humidity : 61%
Wind Speed : SSW 9 mph
Wind Gust 16 mph
Barometer : 29.88 in
Dewpoint: 73 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 96 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 20, 2019 11:53 am EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 87 F
Humidity : 63%
Wind Speed : SW 14 mph
Barometer : 29.89 in
Dewpoint: 73 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 94 F


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
938 am edt sat jul 20 2019

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-211345-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-
holmes-knox-
938 am edt sat jul 20 2019

...excessive heat warning in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio, northeast
ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

excessive heat warning.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.


It seems irresponsible for the Cle NWS not mention the risk for severe storms later today and tonight. All of northern Ohio is under a Marginal Risk. In the past, I've seen the Cle NWS mention a risk for severe weather in its HWOs when we were under only a Marginal Risk. It must depend upon who is on duty at the office and not upon a protocol. But since Toledo is under a Marginal Risk and we are next door to a large part of Michigan that is under a Slight Risk, it seems like the Cle NWS should have said something in its HWO for its northwest Ohio coverage area.

Monroe and Lenawee counties :

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
457 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-210900-
Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
457 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through this evening.
Please refer to the latest forecasts and statements for details.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible during the afternoon and
tonight. There is a slight risk of severe storms, mainly between 3 PM
and midnight, with damaging wind near 60 mph as the primary hazard.
Localized heavy rainfall is also possible which could lead to
significant flooding or flash flooding of poor drainage and other
prone areas. Storm motion will be from west to east around 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday as a cold front moves
toward the Ohio border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Dispatchers please notify your emergency managers immediately. Spotter
activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jul 20, 2019 9:51 am

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 105. Southwest wind 13 to 15 mph.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. West wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 78. Northeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. North wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday Night: A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 78.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 84.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 85.


urgent - weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
1141 am edt sat jul 20 2019

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-210000-
/o.con.kcle.eh.w.0001.000000t0000z-190721t0000z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
including the cities of toledo, bowling green, port clinton,
fremont, sandusky, lorain, cleveland, mentor, chardon, jefferson,
findlay, tiffin, norwalk, medina, akron, ravenna, warren,
upper sandusky, bucyrus, mansfield, ashland, wooster, canton,
youngstown, marion, mount gilead, millersburg, and mount vernon
1141 am edt sat jul 20 2019

...excessive heat warning remains in effect until 8 pm edt this
evening...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. when
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

to reduce risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. heat stroke
is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. this is especially true during
warm or hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal
temperatures in a matter of minutes.


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1026 am edt sat jul 20 2019

.synopsis...
a ridge of high pressure will build northeast over the eastern
united states and linger through tonight. a cold front will
move south across the area sunday. high pressure will build east
out of the middle mississippi valley region tuesday to the ohio
valley by wednesday with below average temperatures.

&&

.near term /through tonight/...
several changes to the forecast this morning, as early morning
convection has now dissipated and moved southeast of the forecast
area. lingering cloud cover over the area from this system will
slowly dissipate through the morning, and this should slow the
diurnal temperature rise through the morning hours. still
anticipating that much of the area will see temps rise to the
previous forecast highs, however some of the highs across far
northeast oh and northwest pa may struggle to realize
warning/advisory criteria. will let the headlines ride for now,
but may need to make adjustments into the afternoon if
temperature trends remain muted.

have also dropped pops across most of the area through the day.
much of the high res guidance keeps the area dry through the
afternoon, with some models showing a few storms developing
across northeast oh/northwest pa this afternoon.

original discussion...
the upper level ridge continues to be firm in control over the
lower ohio river valley this morning. around the fringes of the
upper level ridge, we are seeing couple clusters of convection.
some of that convection has been strong and producing localized
heavy rainfall. the main question for today is how much of the
debris high cloudiness we will see over northern ohio and how
will that affect the afternoon high temperatures. the other
question is how much convection will develop on the out skirts
of the dome of high pressure and where that will bring some
relief from that hot temperatures. the hi-res models and short
guidance have been struggling to capture these impulses of
convection.

we will continue with the forecast of afternoon high
temperatures in the lower to middle 90s and afternoon heat
indices reaching 100 to 109 degrees. the best potential for
scattered convection or a cluster of convection developing again
this afternoon and evening will be near the lakeshore as well as
far northeastern ohio into northwest pennsylvania. there will
be the threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and locally heavy
rainfall. the upper level ridge finally starts to break down
tonight and a frontal boundary drifts southward from the upper
great lakes region. there will be more cloud cover around on
sunday as well as a better chance for widespread scattered
showers and storms by midday and the afternoon across the
region. high temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s on
sunday. we will also see the threat for a few isolated strong
to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and locally heavy
rainfall on sunday.

&&

.short term /sunday through tuesday night/...
sunday night begins with a cold front near a day to yng line with
convection likely occurring along the boundary. will have likely
pops along and south of a marion to meadville line with chance pops
elsewhere. monday an upper trough digging in to the upper midwest
will help to develop low pressure that moves along the boundary. the
low will likely shift the front back north a bit so have increased
pops to categorical south and southeast with likely across much of
the remainder of the area. the low will pull east monday night and
high pressure will begin building in from the west. however with the
upper trough axis still west of the area and deep moisture east will
need to continue chance pops east. tuesday and tuesday night mainly
dry although there is an outside chance of a lake effect shower se
of the lake as 850mb temps drop under 10c. monday and tuesday highs
in the 70s.

&&

.long term /wednesday through friday/...
high pressure will remain in control across the region through
much of the period. saturday into sunday a cold front will
approach from the northwest and will likely be accompanied by
showers and thunderstorms so will need to monitor for timing.
for now will have increasing clouds and pops mainly saturday
night. high temps upper 70s to near 80 wednesday. thursday
through saturday highs roughly 80 to 85.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
the aviation forecast is low confidence this morning into this
afternoon. the early morning convection has put a wrinkle into
the taf forecast. mainly vfr is expected for the next 24 hours
for have included scattered convection to impact cle, mfd, cak,
and yng through mid morning with brief vis and ceiling drops.
this scattered convection will likely dissipate later this
morning. most of the guidance indicates a hot and humid
afternoon with fair skies later today with occasional high
clouds. there may be additional isolated to scattered convection
develop near the lakeshore late this afternoon and evening but
exact location and timing is too uncertain to mention in tafs at
this time. winds near any convection will be variable and brief
gusty winds. the general wind will be southwest winds 5 to 10
knots with gusts returning late morning through the afternoon up
to 20 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms sunday
through monday.

&&

.marine...
no headlines are expected through the period although north winds
will bring conditions near small craft advisory levels across the
central basin monday evening as high pressure begins building in
from the west. for today, expect widely scattered thunderstorms on
the lake as a cold front approaches from the northwest. a better
chance comes tonight and sunday as the front passes across the lake.
thunderstorm chances continue however through monday as the front
moves slowly, south of the lake. tuesday through wednesday, high
pressure will build in from the west.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz089.
pa...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...griffin
near term...greenawalt/griffin
short term...tk
long term...tk
aviation...griffin
marine...tk


md 1543 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for central/southern lower michigan

mesoscale discussion 1543
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1008 am cdt sat jul 20 2019

areas affected...central/southern lower michigan

concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely

valid 201508z - 201715z

probability of watch issuance...20 percent

summary...isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail possible with
strongest storms. longevity of this activity is rather uncertain. a
ww is not likely in the near term unless convective trends warrant.
a more substantial threat should develop this afternoon with
activity moving in from wisconsin.

discussion...a cluster of convection along a low-level boundary has
persisted in portions of northern/central lower michigan this
morning. 12z cam guidance has struggled to handle this activity.
while this activity is expected to remain elevated in the short
term, the downstream airmass is cloud-free and expected to continue
destabilizing into the afternoon. if this activity is able to
persist, the northerly shear vector indicates it would move into
more buoyant air with time. the greatest source of uncertainty with
this activity is whether it will be able to overcome subsidence,
evident in 12 apx and dtx soundings, in the wake of a mcv now moving
into lake erie. the current activity will be capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts and large hail given around 40-45 kts of
effective shear and mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 c/km. given the
uncertainties, a ww is not likely. trends will be monitored,
however. a greater threat for severe weather will exist this
afternoon with activity moving into lower michigan from wisconsin.

..wendt/guyer.. 07/20/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...dtx...apx...grr...

lat...lon 43928636 44288604 44288494 43888410 43008387 42428452
42258578 42518635 43238654 43928636


day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0751 am cdt sat jul 20 2019

valid 201300z - 211200z

...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms southern
wi/lower mi...

...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms eastern co...

...summary...
damaging wind gusts are most likely this afternoon across southern
wisconsin into southern lower michigan.

...central high plains to great lakes...
early-day convection is ongoing across eastern sd through southern
mn north of a surface front that extends east-northeast of a surface
cyclone centered across western ne. this activity will likely
persist through the day, spreading east and reinforcing the
southward progression of the front in its wake. this process will
shunt the strongly unstable air mass (mlcape > 3000 j/kg) southward,
becoming increasingly displaced from the belt of moderate to strong
500-mb westerlies from the mo valley westward.

there will be an opportunity for the linear cluster currently in
eastern sd to merge with the southern mn activity and reintensify
midday towards the peak buoyancy corridor (driven by mid to upper
70s surface dew points beneath an elevated mixed-layer) centered on
southern wi. adequate deep-layer shear should exist for an organized
mcs capable of producing strong to scattered severe wind gusts
eastward into southern lower mi through early evening.

across the central high plains, the initial frontal push will
support north-northeasterly surface winds this afternoon, with
upslope flow into the front range and raton mesa. mid/upper-level
winds will be weak from the west-southwest. however, this may be
sufficient to support a slow northeast-moving cluster towards the
peak buoyancy plume over east-central co. will maintain a small
slight risk in this region for severe wind. this threat should
diminish towards late evening as convection becomes increasingly
undercut/elevated with strengthening low-level stability behind a
secondary frontal surge.

..grams/gleason.. 07/20/2019

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630z

7:59 a.m.

This morning was cloudy with Toledo area temps ranging from 75 to 80 degrees. The thermometer on our upstairs window fan showed 82 degrees. Last night when I went to bed, shortly after Midnight, the fan temp was 88. I could tell during the night that it cooled some because it felt better.

This morning, I moved the window fan to a window in the living room. The fan's therm reads 82 degrees now. The house feels good this morning. The living room thermostat read 80 degrees.

I'm going to go outside and roast coffee beans. I drink mainly hot tea in the mornings, but once or twice a week, I like a pour-over coffee. We've been without my roasted beans for a while.

With no AC in the hot weather over the past five weeks, I still eat hot cereal and drink hot tea in the morning. I'm drinking a cup of leftover tea from yesterday morning that I warmed in the microwave.

Tomorrow's NWS forecast now shows temps remaining steady in the upper 70s all day. The Dark Sky forecast showed 70s for Sunday a few days ago while the NWS was predicting 90, then 88, 87, 86. It's possible that tomorrow's high temp occurs at Midnight tonight.

The Excessive Heat Warning continues for today.

The SPC shows Toledo in the Marginal Risk for severe weather and southeast Michigan in the Slight Risk. Nothing from the Cle NWS about this in their HWO, which was last updated at 944 p.m. last night, which is bizarre. If applicable, the Cle NWS normally issues an HWO in the 3am hour.

I visited the website wunderground.com this morning for the first time in a long time. I wanted to see if the site offered any new radar maps. At one time, back in the 1990s and the aught years, Wunderground was a useful weather info site. This decade, Wunderground has become an obscene, ad-filled, dumpster fire.

Wunderground is obnoxiously bloated and polluted with garbage ads and story links. It's embarrassing. What a disgusting mess, especially for a site that should view itself as providing a service.

The calendar view or almanac of Toledo Express Airport data is the only useful thing left with Wunderground, but it's incredibly painful to navigate to the almanac data because the site is so bloated. The site requires JavaScript to display text almanac info, such as high and low temps, precip, etc. WTF??

Maybe that's what I should create: a concise, useful weather info website that has the look and SPEED of Craigslist. No need for React and other bloated JavaScript frameworks. I would have to pay for info from Dark Sky, and I would use info from the NWS. It would be lighter version of my site toledoweather.info.


Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 20, 2019 7:52 am EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 76 F
Humidity : 79%
Wind Speed : S 9 mph
Barometer : 29.89 in
Dewpoint: 69 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 20, 2019 7:53 am EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 78 F
Humidity : 69%
Wind Speed : SSW 10 mph
Barometer : 29.91 in
Dewpoint: 67 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Date and Time: 08:00 AM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019
Summary: Clear
Air Temp: 80 F
Dew Point: 68 F
Humidity: 67 %
Wind Direction: West-Southwest
Wind Speed: 5 mph
Wind Gust: 5 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 83 F
Pressure: 29.94 inches
UV Index: Low : 1.0
Cloud Cover: 7 % : Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 8 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: West-Northwest


Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 20, 2019 6:52 am EDT
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 75 F
Humidity : 82%
Wind Speed : SSW 5 mph
Barometer : 29.96 in
Dewpoint: 69 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 20, 2019 6:53 am EDT
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 77 F
Humidity : 69%
Wind Speed : W 7 mph
Barometer : 29.96 in
Dewpoint: 66 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Date and Time: 07:45 AM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019
Summary: Clear
Air Temp: 80 F
Dew Point: 68 F
Humidity: 68 %
Wind Direction: West-Northwest
Wind Speed: 4 mph
Wind Gust: 4 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 82 F
Pressure: 29.95 inches
UV Index: Low : 0.0
Cloud Cover: 11 % : Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 7 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: Northwest


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jul 20, 2019 5:03 am

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 106. Southwest wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. West wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 78. Northeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. North wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday Night: A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 78.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 84.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 85.


day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1257 am cdt sat jul 20 2019

valid 201200z - 211200z

...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across northeast
ia...southern wi...northern il...and lower mi and eastern co...

...summary...
severe thunderstorms capable of wind damage and hail will be
possible today across parts of the central and northern plains
east-northeastward into the lower michigan. severe storms will also
be possible from southeast wyoming into eastern colorado.

...northern/central plains...upper ms valley...upper great lakes
early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern wy. a cold
front extends eastward from this low across northern ne and then
northeastward across northwest ia and south-central mn into northern
wi. a strong low-level jet will promote warm-air advection across
this frontal zone, contributing to elevated showers and
thunderstorms that will likely persist into the morning across sd.
these showers and thunderstorms will help reinforce the cold front,
which is expected to remain largely stationary through the
mid-morning. this area will be on the southern periphery of the
stronger flow aloft and the resulting vertical shear may support
storm organization and occasional updrafts strong enough to produce
severe hail. linear storm structures are also possible, but
low-level stability should prevent any strong downdrafts from
reaching the surface through about mid-morning.

given diurnal heating and the slow-moving character of cold front,
the potential for surface-based storms will increase with eastern
extent. this could result in a few stronger storms from northeast ia
across southern wi/northern il into lower mi where the air mass is
expected to recover quickly in the wake of this mornings mcs. steep
low-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and relatively warm
mid-levels support the development of strong downdrafts. very strong
buoyancy (i.e. 3500+ j/kg of mlcape) will also support the potential
for large hail and perhaps a brief tornado.

...central high plains...
dewpoints are expected to be around 60 after the cold front moves
through the region during the late afternoon. given the
southwesterly flow aloft, storms developing over the higher terrain
may move off the terrain into the more moist, post-frontal air mass
across eastern co/wy. increased instability and vertical shear
supports the potential for storms capable of large hail and strong
wind gusts.

..mosier/bentley.. 07/20/2019

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z


Dark Sky

Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day.

08:00 AM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-20T12:00:00Z - Icon: clear-day. Temp: 80. Apparent temp: 83. Wind: WSW 5 mph, gust: 5 mph. Precip type: . Precip probability: 0%. Precip intensity: . Cloud cover amt: 7%. Cloud cover desc: Clear. Humidity: 67%. UVI Index: Low.

09:00 AM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-20T13:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 82. Apparent temp: 85. Wind: WSW 6 mph, gust: 6 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 3%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 22%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Clear. Humidity: 67%. UVI Index: Low.

10:00 AM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-20T14:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 85. Apparent temp: 91. Wind: SW 9 mph, gust: 13 mph. Precip type: . Precip probability: 0%. Precip intensity: . Cloud cover amt: 48%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 69%. UVI Index: Moderate.

11:00 AM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-20T15:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 87. Apparent temp: 97. Wind: SW 12 mph, gust: 19 mph. Precip type: . Precip probability: 0%. Precip intensity: . Cloud cover amt: 70%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Cloudy. Humidity: 69%. UVI Index: Moderate.

12:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-20T16:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 90. Apparent temp: 101. Wind: SW 12 mph, gust: 19 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 2%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 52%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 65%. UVI Index: High.

01:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-20T17:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 91. Apparent temp: 104. Wind: SW 13 mph, gust: 19 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 2%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 50%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 62%. UVI Index: High.

02:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-20T18:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 93. Apparent temp: 106. Wind: SW 14 mph, gust: 20 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 2%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 41%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 60%. UVI Index: Very High.

03:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-20T19:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 94. Apparent temp: 107. Wind: SW 14 mph, gust: 21 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 3%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 35%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 58%. UVI Index: Very High.

04:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-20T20:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 94. Apparent temp: 107. Wind: SW 15 mph, gust: 22 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 3%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 18%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Clear. Humidity: 56%. UVI Index: High.

05:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-20T21:00:00Z - Icon: clear-day. Temp: 94. Apparent temp: 107. Wind: SW 15 mph, gust: 23 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 4%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 11%. Cloud cover desc: Clear. Humidity: 56%. UVI Index: Moderate.

06:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-20T22:00:00Z - Icon: clear-day. Temp: 94. Apparent temp: 107. Wind: WSW 14 mph, gust: 23 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 4%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 12%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Clear. Humidity: 58%. UVI Index: Moderate.

07:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-20T23:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 92. Apparent temp: 106. Wind: WSW 13 mph, gust: 24 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 5%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 18%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Clear. Humidity: 60%. UVI Index: Low.

08:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-21T00:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 91. Apparent temp: 104. Wind: WSW 12 mph, gust: 24 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 7%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 26%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Clear. Humidity: 64%. UVI Index: Low.

09:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-21T01:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 88. Apparent temp: 100. Wind: SW 11 mph, gust: 23 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 10%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 32%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 69%. UVI Index: Low.

10:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-21T02:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 85. Apparent temp: 95. Wind: W 10 mph, gust: 25 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 9%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 42%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 75%. UVI Index: Low.

11:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - 2019-07-21T03:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 83. Apparent temp: 91. Wind: WSW 9 mph, gust: 26 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 8%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 47%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 79%. UVI Index: Low.

12:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T04:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 82. Apparent temp: 89. Wind: W 10 mph, gust: 29 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 8%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 49%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 81%. UVI Index: Low.

01:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T05:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 81. Apparent temp: 88. Wind: SW 10 mph, gust: 31 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 9%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 52%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 82%. UVI Index: Low.

02:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T06:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 81. Apparent temp: 87. Wind: WSW 10 mph, gust: 31 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 8%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 54%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 83%. UVI Index: Low.

03:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T07:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 80. Apparent temp: 85. Wind: SW 10 mph, gust: 27 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 5%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 49%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 84%. UVI Index: Low.

04:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T08:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 79. Apparent temp: 84. Wind: NE 8 mph, gust: 20 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 3%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 42%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 85%. UVI Index: Low.

05:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T09:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 78. Apparent temp: 80. Wind: WNW 7 mph, gust: 14 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 2%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 36%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 87%. UVI Index: Low.

06:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T10:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-night. Temp: 77. Apparent temp: 79. Wind: WNW 6 mph, gust: 11 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 2%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 33%. Cloud cover desc: Partly Cloudy. Humidity: 89%. UVI Index: Low.

07:00 AM, Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - 2019-07-21T11:00:00Z - Icon: partly-cloudy-day. Temp: 76. Apparent temp: 78. Wind: NNW 6 mph, gust: 10 mph. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 3%. Precip intensity: Very Light. Cloud cover amt: 29%. Cloud cover desc: Mostly Clear. Humidity: 93%. UVI Index: Low.


Dark Sky

Light rain throughout the week, with high temperatures falling to 75�F on Monday.

Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - Possible light rain in the morning. Cloud cover: Partly Cloudy. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 48 %. Low temp 76 at 07:00 AM. High temp 94 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 75. Humidity 69. Apparent high temp 107. Wind: West-Southwest at 10 mph. Sunrise: 06:18 AM. Sunset: 09:05 PM. Moon: 0.63 = Waning Gibbous.

Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - Possible light rain in the afternoon and evening. Cloud cover: Mostly Cloudy. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 69 %. Low temp 68 at 08:00 AM. High temp 80 at 11:00 AM. Dew point 72. Humidity 81. Apparent high temp 84. Wind: North-Northeast at 8 mph. Sunrise: 06:19 AM. Sunset: 09:04 PM. Moon: 0.66 = Waning Gibbous.

Mon, Jul 22, 2019 - Overcast throughout the day. Cloud cover: Cloudy. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 51 %. Low temp 59 at 06:00 AM. High temp 75 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 62. Humidity 72. Apparent high temp 76. Wind: North-Northeast at 9 mph. Sunrise: 06:20 AM. Sunset: 09:03 PM. Moon: 0.69 = Waning Gibbous.

Tue, Jul 23, 2019 - Clear throughout the day. Cloud cover: Mostly Clear. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 16 %. Low temp 60 at 06:00 AM. High temp 79 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 53. Humidity 59. Apparent high temp 79. Wind: North-Northwest at 9 mph. Sunrise: 06:21 AM. Sunset: 09:02 PM. Moon: 0.72 = Waning Gibbous.

Wed, Jul 24, 2019 - Clear throughout the day. Cloud cover: Clear. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 14 %. Low temp 61 at 06:00 AM. High temp 80 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 56. Humidity 62. Apparent high temp 81. Wind: West-Northwest at 6 mph. Sunrise: 06:22 AM. Sunset: 09:01 PM. Moon: 0.75 = Last Quarter Moon.

Thu, Jul 25, 2019 - Mostly cloudy throughout the day. Cloud cover: Mostly Clear. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 3 %. Low temp 64 at 06:00 AM. High temp 83 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 59. Humidity 64. Apparent high temp 83. Wind: West-Southwest at 4 mph. Sunrise: 06:23 AM. Sunset: 09:00 PM. Moon: 0.78 = Waining Crescent.

Fri, Jul 26, 2019 - Clear throughout the day. Cloud cover: Clear. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 1 %. Low temp 68 at 06:00 AM. High temp 84 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 61. Humidity 65. Apparent high temp 85. Wind: Southwest at 6 mph. Sunrise: 06:24 AM. Sunset: 09:00 PM. Moon: 0.81 = Waining Crescent.

Links

50 years ago, astronauts walked on the Moon
https://www.ibm.com/thought-leadership/space/?cm_ven=hp-slot-1

https://variety.com/2019/scene/news/sharon-stone-candid-about-life-after-her-stroke-people-treated-me-in-a-way-that-was-brutally-unkind-1203272568/

https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2019/07/19/pampers-creating-smart-diaper/