Links and Notes - Fri, Jul 19, 2019

12:01 a.m. Sat, Jul 20

This is rough for Midnight. Heat index values in the 90s. It's a little breezy outside at times though. I can the Oak Openings natives plants swaying. But for some reason, our house has never had good air flow even with nearly every window open.

I should have installed the living room window air conditioner this evening, but I was tired, and my shoulders were achy and worn out from helping Brad finish installing the fence for his yard today. I could have slept downstairs. Barney pants often.

Late this afternoon, our living room thermostat temp read 85 degrees. It now reads 84. I will install one or maybe both AC units in the morning. I'm going to attempt to sleep now upstairs where the temp is in the upper 80s.

Back in the summer of 2012 when we experienced numerous days with temps ranging from the mid-90s to the low-100s, we did not have this kind of humidity.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 19, 2019 11:52 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 84 F
Humidity : 75%
Wind Speed : SW 8 mph
Barometer : 29.90 in
Dewpoint: 75 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 92 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 19, 2019 11:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 85 F
Humidity : 75%
Wind Speed : SW 15 mph
Barometer : 29.88 in
Dewpoint: 76 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 95 F

Date and Time: 12:00 AM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019
Summary: Humid and Partly Cloudy
Air Temp: 85 F
Dew Point: 75 F
Humidity: 73 %
Wind Direction: Southwest
Wind Speed: 9 mph
Wind Gust: 12 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 94 F
Pressure: 29.85 inches
UV Index: Low : 0.0
Cloud Cover: 21 % : Mostly Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 43 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: North-Northwest

11:53 p.m.

At 11:33 p.m. while walking through the house toward the kitchen, I heard a Scissor-grinder Cicada sing near the northeast corner of our house. The cicada must be enjoying the warm, humid night.


md 1534 concerning severe potential...watch likely for portions of northern and central lower mi

mesoscale discussion 1534
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0911 pm cdt fri jul 19 2019

areas affected...portions of northern and central lower mi

concerning...severe potential...watch likely

valid 200211z - 200345z

probability of watch issuance...95 percent

summary...damaging wind threat is expected to continue downstream of
ww 525 into portions of lower mi. a new severe thunderstorm watch is
expected in the next hour or so.

discussion...an intense bow echo continues to rapidly shift
east/southeast across northern wi this evening. latest track
information brings the bow across lake michigan around 04z. a very
unstable airmass remains downstream of the bow, with temperatures
still in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s across much
of northern and central lower mi this evening. a southwesterly low
level jet of 40-50 kt is being sampled by regional vwps and
effective shear greater than 40 kts will continue to stream across
the upper great lakes region overnight. furthermore, a well-defined
rear inflow jet is noted in kgrb 88-d data. an unconfirmed measured
80 mph wind gust along with numerous reports of damage have occurred
with the most intense portion of the bow, now moving across oconto
and marinette counties in northeast wi. given the favorable
environmental parameters and the organized nature of the ongoing
bow, expect the threat will continue downstream into portions of
lower mi and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in
the next hour or so.

..leitman/thompson.. 07/20/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...dtx...apx...grr...grb...

lat...lon 45388557 45408643 45248706 44958719 44218739 43798701
43478601 43348455 43438394 43928354 44428325 44918343
45278446 45388557

11:30 p.m.

Our temps were in the mid-80s in the 11pm hour. Ouch. Dew points temps were still in the mid-70s. Double ouch.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 19, 2019 10:52 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 85 F
Humidity : 70%
Wind Speed : SSW 7 mph
Barometer : 29.88 in
Dewpoint: 74 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 93 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 19, 2019 10:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 86 F
Humidity : 72%
Wind Speed : SW 16 mph
Barometer : 29.87 in
Dewpoint: 76 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 96 F

Date and Time: 11:30 PM, Fri, Jul 19, 2019
Summary: Humid and Mostly Cloudy
Air Temp: 83 F
Dew Point: 74 F
Humidity: 74 %
Wind Direction: South-Southwest
Wind Speed: 4 mph
Wind Gust: 4 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 91 F
Pressure: 29.91 inches
UV Index: Low : 0.0
Cloud Cover: 68 % : Mostly Cloudy
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 9.224 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 53 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: East

10:58 p.m.

Previous hour:

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 19, 2019 9:52 pm EDT
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 85 F
Humidity : 70%
Wind Speed : Calm
Barometer : 29.90 in
Dewpoint: 74 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 93 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 19, 2019 9:53 pm EDT
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 87 F
Humidity : 70%
Wind Speed : SW 7 mph
Barometer : 29.91 in
Dewpoint: 76 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 98 F

Date and Time: 10:45 PM, Fri, Jul 19, 2019
Summary: Humid and Mostly Cloudy
Air Temp: 85 F
Dew Point: 75 F
Humidity: 72 %
Wind Direction: West-Southwest
Wind Speed: 3 mph
Wind Gust: 3 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 93 F
Pressure: 29.91 inches
UV Index: Low : 0.0
Cloud Cover: 68 % : Mostly Cloudy
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 9.653 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 27 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: East

8:41 p.m.

Date and Time: 08:30 PM, Fri, Jul 19, 2019
Summary: Humid and Partly Cloudy
Air Temp: 90 F
Dew Point: 75 F
Humidity: 63 %
Wind Direction: South-Southwest
Wind Speed: 3 mph
Wind Gust: 3 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 100 F
Pressure: 29.88 inches
UV Index: Low : 0.0
Cloud Cover: 44 % : Partly Cloudy
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 9.57 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 35 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: North

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 19, 2019 7:52 pm EDT
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 91 F
Humidity : 60%
Wind Speed : SSW 7 mph
Barometer : 29.86 in
Dewpoint: 75 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 102 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 19, 2019 7:53 pm EDT
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 91 F
Humidity : 62%
Wind Speed : SW 10 mph
Barometer : 29.88 in
Dewpoint: 76 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 103 F

5:35 p.m.

I helped Brad finish installing the fence. Today, we applied the wire fencing. We did some other things too outside, fence related. We worked outdoors for five hours between 9:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. It was toasty. At least a nice breeze existed at times, but the humidity was stifling.

TOL reports a dew point temp of 76 degrees. Monday's forecast high temp is 78.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 19, 2019 4:52 pm EDT
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 96 F
Humidity : 53%
Wind Speed : SSW 13 mph
Wind Gust 21 mph
Barometer : 29.87 in
Dewpoint: 76 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 110 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 19, 2019 4:53 pm EDT
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 93 F
Humidity : 58%
Wind Speed : WSW 18 mph
Wind Gust 28 mph
Barometer : 29.88 in
Dewpoint: 76 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 106 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Jul 19, 2019 5:16 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : NA F
Humidity : 0%
Wind Speed : SW 13 mph
Wind Gust 20 mph
Barometer : 29.86 in
Dewpoint: NA F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles


Date and Time: 05:30 PM, Fri, Jul 19, 2019
Summary: Humid and Mostly Cloudy
Air Temp: 94 F
Dew Point: 76 F
Humidity: 57 %
Wind Direction: West-Southwest
Wind Speed: 9 mph
Wind Gust: 13 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 107 F
Pressure: 29.85 inches
UV Index: Moderate : 3.0
Cloud Cover: 71 % : Mostly Cloudy
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 23 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: North-Northeast


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jul 19, 2019 3:42 pm

This Afternoon: Partly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 104. Southwest wind around 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. Southwest wind 7 to 11 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 110. Southwest wind 9 to 15 mph.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 78.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 82.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 63.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 85.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 65.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 84.


urgent - weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
341 pm edt fri jul 19 2019

...dangerous heat wave through saturday...

ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-200345-
/o.con.kcle.eh.w.0001.000000t0000z-190721t0000z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-
ashtabula inland-hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-
trumbull-wyandot-crawford-richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-
marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
including the cities of toledo, bowling green, port clinton,
fremont, sandusky, lorain, cleveland, mentor, chardon, jefferson,
findlay, tiffin, norwalk, medina, akron, ravenna, warren,
upper sandusky, bucyrus, mansfield, ashland, wooster, canton,
youngstown, marion, mount gilead, millersburg, and mount vernon
341 pm edt fri jul 19 2019

...excessive heat warning remains in effect until 8 pm edt
saturday...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. when
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

to reduce risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. heat stroke
is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. this is especially true during
warm or hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal
temperatures in a matter of minutes.


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
309 pm edt fri jul 19 2019

ohz003-006-008-017>019-027>032-036>038-047-201915-
lucas-wood-sandusky-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-crawford-richland-
ashland-wayne-stark-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
309 pm edt fri jul 19 2019

...excessive heat warning in effect until 8 pm edt saturday...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio, northeast
ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one...this afternoon and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

excessive heat warning.

.days two through seven...saturday through thursday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

excessive heat warning.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.


04:45 PM, Fri, Jul 19, 2019
Now: Humid and Mostly Cloudy 94 F. Feels like 108. WSW at 9 mph. Gust 13 mph.

Date and Time: 04:45 PM, Fri, Jul 19, 2019
Summary: Humid and Mostly Cloudy
Air Temp: 94 F
Dew Point: 77 F
Humidity: 58 %
Wind Direction: West-Southwest
Wind Speed: 9 mph
Wind Gust: 13 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 108 F
Pressure: 29.86 inches
UV Index: Moderate : 4.0
Cloud Cover: 69 % : Mostly Cloudy
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 24 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: North-Northeast

Jul 19, 2019 3:52 pm EDT
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 94 F
Humidity : 56%
Wind Speed : SW 17 mph
Barometer : 29.87 in
Dewpoint: 76 F
Heat index: 107

Executive
formerly Metcalf Airport)
Jul 19, 2019 3:53 pm EDT
Weather : A Few Clouds and Breezy
Temperature : 94 F
Humidity : 58%
Wind Speed : WSW 22 mph - Gust 25 mph
Barometer : 29.88 in
Dewpoint: 77 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 109 F

5:47 a.m.

Window fan in our upstairs bedroom recorded 81 degrees at 5:25 a.m. today. It feels nice outside though with temps in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees but with a light breeze. I have never understood why the outside air does not flow better through our house even with so many windows open. It must have something to do with the design of the house.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 19, 2019 4:52 am EDT
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 79 F
Humidity : 85%
Wind Speed : SW 10 mph
Barometer : 29.86 in
Dewpoint: 74 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 19, 2019 4:53 am EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 78 F
Humidity : 91%
Wind Speed : SW 10 mph
Barometer : 29.87 in
Dewpoint: 75 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Date and Time: 05:45 AM, Fri, Jul 19, 2019
Summary: Humid
Air Temp: 79 F
Dew Point: 75 F
Humidity: 88 %
Wind Direction: Southwest
Wind Speed: 6 mph
Wind Gust: 6 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 83 F
Pressure: 29.86 inches
UV Index: Low : 0.0
Cloud Cover: 12 % : Mostly Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 165 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: North-Northwest


Light rain on Sunday, with high temperatures falling to 76�F on Monday.

Fri, Jul 19, 2019 - Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. Cloud cover: Partly Cloudy. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 14 %. Low temp 80 at 07:00 AM. High temp 92 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 76. Humidity 75. Apparent high temp 105. Wind: Southwest at 11 mph. Sunrise: 06:17 AM. Sunset: 09:05 PM. Moon: 0.6 = Waning Gibbous.

Sat, Jul 20, 2019 - Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. Cloud cover: Clear. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 12 %. Low temp 74 at 08:00 AM. High temp 95 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 75. Humidity 69. Apparent high temp 109. Wind: West-Southwest at 12 mph. Sunrise: 06:18 AM. Sunset: 09:05 PM. Moon: 0.63 = Waning Gibbous.

Sun, Jul 21, 2019 - Light rain starting in the afternoon. Cloud cover: Mostly Cloudy. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 81 %. Low temp 66 at 06:00 AM. High temp 80 at 01:00 PM. Dew point 71. Humidity 80. Apparent high temp 84. Wind: North-Northeast at 8 mph. Sunrise: 06:19 AM. Sunset: 09:04 PM. Moon: 0.66 = Waning Gibbous.

Mon, Jul 22, 2019 - Mostly cloudy throughout the day. Cloud cover: Mostly Cloudy. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 28 %. Low temp 59 at 06:00 AM. High temp 76 at 03:00 PM. Dew point 60. Humidity 70. Apparent high temp 76. Wind: North-Northeast at 8 mph. Sunrise: 06:20 AM. Sunset: 09:03 PM. Moon: 0.69 = Waning Gibbous.

Tue, Jul 23, 2019 - Clear throughout the day. Cloud cover: Clear. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 1 %. Low temp 60 at 05:00 AM. High temp 79 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 53. Humidity 60. Apparent high temp 79. Wind: North-Northwest at 6 mph. Sunrise: 06:21 AM. Sunset: 09:02 PM. Moon: 0.72 = Waning Gibbous.

Wed, Jul 24, 2019 - Clear throughout the day. Cloud cover: Clear. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 5 %. Low temp 61 at 05:00 AM. High temp 81 at 03:00 PM. Dew point 56. Humidity 60. Apparent high temp 82. Wind: West-Northwest at 6 mph. Sunrise: 06:22 AM. Sunset: 09:01 PM. Moon: 0.75 = Last Quarter Moon.

Thu, Jul 25, 2019 - Clear throughout the day. Cloud cover: Clear. Precip type: rain. Precip probability: 1 %. Low temp 64 at 06:00 AM. High temp 82 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 59. Humidity 64. Apparent high temp 82. Wind: West at 6 mph. Sunrise: 06:23 AM. Sunset: 09:00 PM. Moon: 0.78 = Waining Crescent.


Excessive Heat Warning
...Dangerous Heat Wave Through Saturday... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Up to 110 due to temperatures in the lower and middle 90s, and dewpoints in the mid 70s. * TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday evening. The highest heat index values will occur late afternoon into the early evening but little relief will occur overnight with low temperatures only dipping to the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. * IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during outdoor exertion or extended exposure.
Start: 05:16 AM, Fri, Jul 19, 2019
End: 08:00 PM, Sat, Jul 20, 2019


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jul 19, 2019 2:43 am

Overnight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southwest wind around 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 103. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 105. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 80.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 83.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 63.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 84.


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
311 am edt fri jul 19 2019

ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-200715-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot-crawford-marion-
morrow-
311 am edt fri jul 19 2019

...excessive heat warning in effect until 8 pm edt saturday...

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

excessive heat warning.

.days two through seven...saturday through thursday.

please listen to noaa weather radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

excessive heat warning.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
302 am edt fri jul 19 2019

...dangerous heat wave today through tomorrow...

.synopsis...
a ridge of high pressure will build northeast over the eastern
united states and linger through saturday night. a cold front
will move south across the area sunday. high pressure will build
east out of the middle mississippi valley region tuesday to the
ohio valley by wednesday with below average temperatures.

&&

.near term /through saturday/...
upper level heights will rise today as the upper level ridge
strengthens over the ohio river valley. we are watching a
disturbance currently over southern wisconsin with a cluster of
severe convection. model indicate this feature will continue to
ride over the ridge and perhaps cross lake erie late this
afternoon and evening. hi-res models show that scattered
convection will develop over far northeast ohio into northwest
pennsylvania with some cooling relief and rainfall. there will
be the potential for a couple strong to severe storms with the
main threat being damaging wind gusts. the rest of the area
should remain rain free and just hot and humid. afternoon high
temperatures will climb into the lower and middle 90s with that
hottest temperatures over central and western ohio. heat indices
will be between 100 and 110 today. the current heat warning and
advisories look good with no changes planned. scattered showers
and storms will slowly decrease overnight over the far
northeastern area. some urban areas may not fall below 80
degrees tonight.

saturday now appears to be the hottest day of this multi-day
heat wave. the upper level ridge will be centered over
southwestern ohio by midday saturday. afternoon high
temperatures will once again top out into the lower and middle
90s with the heat index between 100 and 110. the highest values
will be over western ohio and urban areas. models continue to
show scattered convection may develop across far northern ohio
into northwest pennsylvania late tomorrow afternoon as a frontal
boundary moves closer to the region. the upper level ridge
starts to break down and weaken late in the afternoon on
saturday.

&&

.short term /saturday night through monday night/...
the dominant feature in the short term forecast is a cold front
passing through the region. unfortunately however, models are in
disagreement as to timing of the front. the nam and ecmwf have the
front north of the area 12z sunday while the gfs is a bit faster
with the boundary into nwrn oh. manual progs are faster still with
the front across northern oh. may take a run or two for better
confidence but for now have sided with the slower solution, taking
it through the area sunday afternoon into sunday night. monday
clouds break and precip ends. sunday highs still in the mid and
upper 80s. monday upper 70s to near 80.

&&

.long term /tuesday through thursday/...
the dominant feature through much of the long term forecast will be
an upper trough that develops across the region bringing cooler,
more seasonal air to the great lakes region. expect primarily fair
weather under the influence of a broad surface high. only concern
will be the possibility of developing lake effect showers/clouds as
850mb temps drop below 10c. did bring in a slight chance pop in
graphics for wednesday through thursday for the traditional snowbelt
locations.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
mostly vfr conditions are expected for taf sites with the
exception of some mvfr broken ceilings possible by early morning
for cak, cle, and yng. otherwise mostly fair skies are expected
through the rest of the night through friday afternoon. we will
have to monitor the progression of a convection cluster over
southern wisconsin overnight and see how far that convection
travels to the east. if it were to hold together, it could
impact some of the taf locations closer to the lake this
evening. we have prob30 groups mentioning this potential. winds
will be southwesterly 5 to 10 knots and increasing by mid to
late morning slightly with some gusts up to 20 knots. gusty
winds will relax by sunset again friday evening with winds
remaining around 5 to 10 knots.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms saturday
night through monday.

&&

.marine...
today through saturday, winds will be from the southwest on the lake
at roughly 10 to 15 knots. this will build waves to 2 to 3 feet
with highest waves east. the lake could get choppy at times but
believe we stay below small craft criteria. a cold front will drop
south across the lake late saturday night/early sunday. saturday
night however, southwest flow drops off before turning north behind
the front. high pressure will build in from the west much of the
week. the high will be over the lake thursday. winds should continue
from the north to northwest sunday night through tuesday. the
gradient tightens enough monday evening to support north winds
around 15 knots. this should get the south shore close to3 to 4
foot waves and will need to monitor for a short duration advisory.
otherwise, no headlines are expected. the best chance for
thunderstorms on the lake will be saturday night into sunday as the
cold front passes across the waters.

&&

.climate...
it will be hot over the next 3 days but most of the records
will be tough to reach. here is a list of the record highs
and the warmest minimum temperature today through saturday.

locationfriday saturday

location friday saturday

canton/akron 98 in 1930 100 in 1980
79 in 2013 78 in 1930

cleveland95 in 1930* 98 in 1930
79 in 1930* 78 in 1926*

erie93 in 1946 93 in 1926
77 in 1930 78 in 1987*

mansfield100 in 1930102 in 1930
78 in 1977 79 in 1977

toledo102 in 1930102 in 1930
77 in 1930* 76 in 1934*

youngstown98 in 1942 95 in 1991
76 in 1942* 75 in 1977*

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...excessive heat warning from noon today to 8 pm edt saturday
for ohz009>014-019>023-029>033-038-047.
excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt saturday for ohz003-
006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037.
heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt saturday for ohz089.
pa...heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt saturday for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...griffin
near term...griffin
short term...tk
long term...tk
aviation...griffin
marine...tk
climate...


nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
339 am edt fri jul 19 2019

for waters within five nautical miles of shore

waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

lez142>149-191415-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-
the lake oh-lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-
lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
339 am edt fri jul 19 2019

.today...southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms this morning. a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late. waves 2 feet or less.
.tonight...southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening. waves 2 feet or less.
.saturday...southwest winds around 10 knots. mostly sunny. waves
2 feet or less.
.saturday night...southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. a
chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. waves 2 feet or
less.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for sunday through tuesday.

the water temperature off toledo is 78 degrees, off cleveland
at 30 feet depth, 58 degrees and off erie 75 degrees.


urgent - weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
516 am edt fri jul 19 2019

...dangerous heat wave through saturday...

ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-192100-
/o.con.kcle.eh.w.0001.000000t0000z-190721t0000z/
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot-crawford-marion-
morrow-
including the cities of toledo, bowling green, port clinton,
fremont, findlay, tiffin, upper sandusky, bucyrus, marion,
and mount gilead
516 am edt fri jul 19 2019

...excessive heat warning remains in effect until 8 pm edt
saturday...

precautionary/preparedness actions...

an excessive heat warning is issued when a prolonged period of
dangerously hot weather will occur. the combination of high
temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous
situation in which heat illnesses are likely. drink plenty of
fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and
check up on relatives and neighbors.

Links

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20472179

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20474530

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20468845

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20470350

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20466641

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20473860

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20468057

https://a16z.com/2019/07/16/substack/

https://projecttext.com/campaigns/66

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2019/07/the-launch-of-lakewood-together-an-innovative-experiment-for-covering-a-suburb-on-a-platform-that-engages-the-community.html

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20465430

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20463170

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20473464

https://on.substack.com/p/hit-em-in-their-inboxes
https://www.niemanlab.org/2017/10/stratechery-as-a-service-substack-aims-to-streamline-the-creation-of-independent-subscription-news-sites/
https://text.npr.org/s.php?sId=739934923&rid=1001
https://text.npr.org/s.php?sId=742688141
http://news.soupmode.com/httpswwwtoledobladecomrsslocalfeed.html
http://sawv.org/wren/update/2019/07/19/links-and-notes-fri-jul-19-2019.html

http://news.soupmode.com/
http://testcode.soupmode.com/cgi-bin/pb.lua/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toledoblade.com%2Flocal%2Fcourts%2F2019%2F07%2F18%2Ftoledo-anderson-savage-appear-court-murder-related-charges-fatal-shootings%2Fstories%2F20190718163
http://testcode.soupmode.com/cgi-bin/pb.lua/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toledoblade.com%2Flocal%2Fpolitics%2F2019%2F07%2F18%2Flucas-county-democrats-endorse-gadus-for-toledo-city-council-district-3%2Fstories%2F20190718153
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http://testcode.soupmode.com/cgi-bin/pb.lua/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toledoblade.com%2Flocal%2Fcommunity-events%2F2019%2F07%2F18%2Feast-river-drive-concert-at-toledo-ottawa-park-postponed-because-of-high-heat-warnings%2Fstories%2F20190718122
http://testcode.soupmode.com/cgi-bin/pb.lua/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toledoblade.com%2Flocal%2Fpolice-fire%2F2019%2F07%2F18%2Flucas-county-sheriff-deputy-gunpoint-alan-gaston-seth-eklund-paragon-systems-inc%2Fstories%2F20190717118
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http://testcode.soupmode.com/cgi-bin/pb.lua/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toledoblade.com%2Fopinion%2Fcolumnists%2F2019%2F07%2F19%2Fsocialists-brought-technology-to-the-democratic-debate-party-lucas-county%2Fstories%2F20190718114
http://testcode.soupmode.com/cgi-bin/pb.lua/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toledoblade.com%2Fopinion%2Fletters-to-the-editor%2F2019%2F07%2F19%2Ftaxpayers-own-public-space-promedica-seagate-centre-fifth-third-field%2Fstories%2F20190718039
http://testcode.soupmode.com/cgi-bin/pb.lua/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toledoblade.com%2Fopinion%2Feditorials%2F2019%2F07%2F18%2Fbuy-fresh-local-food-stamps-snap-benefits-ohio%2Fstories%2F20190716154
http://testcode.soupmode.com/cgi-bin/pb.lua/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toledoblade.com%2Fopinion%2Fcolumnists%2F2019%2F07%2F18%2Fpresident-donald-trump-should-go-back-to-russia-commentary%2Fstories%2F20190715233
http://testcode.soupmode.com/cgi-bin/pb.lua/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toledoblade.com%2Fopinion%2Fletters-to-the-editor%2F2019%2F07%2F17%2F1969-was-best-year-ever-lunar-landing-woodstock-plymouth-roadrunner%2Fstories%2F20190716139
http://testcode.soupmode.com/cgi-bin/pb.lua/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toledoblade.com%2Fopinion%2Feditorials%2F2019%2F07%2F17%2Fbecause-it-is-hard-moon-landing-legacy-nasa%2Fstories%2F20190712179
http://testcode.soupmode.com/cgi-bin/pb.lua/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toledoblade.com%2Fopinion%2Fletters-to-the-editor%2F2019%2F07%2F16%2Fno-saving-with-nuclear-power-first-energy-ohio%2Fstories%2F20190715153
http://testcode.soupmode.com/cgi-bin/pb.lua/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toledoblade.com%2Fopinion%2Feditorials%2F2019%2F07%2F16%2Frecycling-dos-and-donts-toledo-lucas-county%2Fstories%2F20190705128
http://testcode.soupmode.com/cgi-bin/pb.lua/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.toledoblade.com%2Fnews%2FWorld%2F2019%2F07%2F18%2Fdozens-die-as-man-ignites-blaze-at-japanese-animation-studio%2Fstories%2F20190719030
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