Links and Notes - Tue, Jul 2, 2019

11:50 p.m.

Lake Erie remains at a higher than normal level. Every little wind that would normally not be an issue is now potentially causing lakeshore flooding.

A lot of thunderstorm activity occurred in the region this afternoon and tonight, but no rain fell over our neighborhood in West Toledo. We felt wind gusts, associated with storms that moved south of us.

Radar shows rain and storms moving north and south of us.


Special Weather Statement issued July 02 at 10:47PM EDT by NWS Cleveland

...Lake Erie Water Level Rising Rapidly Along the Shore...
Thunderstorms over Lake Erie are producing gusty winds that will
continue to force the water levels along the Lake Erie shoreline to
rise rapidly. This will cause flooding along the shoreline through
the next several hours. As the thunderstorms diminish, the water
level should begin to recede and reduce the flooding threat.

8:58 a.m.

Seventh consecutive 90-degree day. Temps reached the mid-90s this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms formed throughout the region this afternoon, and they continue this evening. It's probable that the storms will weaken now that the sun is setting.

Today was also humid. Sticky yesterday, last night, and this morning. I may break down and install the window AC units tomorrow. The forecast calls for 90-degree days for a few more days. We should definitely be below 90 on Sunday and Monday.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jul 2, 2019 7:52 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 88 F
Humidity : 54%
Wind Speed : SW 7 mph
Barometer : 29.81 in
Dewpoint: 69 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 93 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jul 2, 2019 7:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 87 F
Humidity : 57%
Wind Speed : WSW 10 mph
Barometer : 29.82 in
Dewpoint: 70 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 92 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Jul 2, 2019 8:40 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 85 F
Humidity : 63%
Wind Speed : W 3 mph
Barometer : 29.81 in
Dewpoint: 71 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Heat Index : 90 F

Date and Time: 09:00 PM, Tue, Jul 02, 2019
Summary: Clear
Air Temp: 85 F
Dew Point: 70 F
Humidity: 62 %
Wind Direction: West-Northwest
Wind Speed: 4 mph
Wind Gust: 4 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 89 F
Pressure: 29.81 inches
UV Index: Low : 0.0
Cloud Cover: 12 % : Mostly Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 8 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: West-Southwest

--

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jul 2, 2019 7:01 pm

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. West wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Independence Day: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 95. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 82.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 65.

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


md 1343 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for southern and eastern wisconsin...northern illinois...northern indiana...and southern lower michigan

mesoscale discussion 1343
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0231 pm cdt tue jul 02 2019

areas affected...southern and eastern wisconsin...northern
illinois...northern indiana...and southern lower michigan

concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely

valid 021931z - 022100z

probability of watch issuance...5 percent

summary...thunderstorms continue to intensify and expand in coverage
across the discussion area, and a risk of isolated damaging wind and
hail will accompany stronger storms. a ww issuance is not
anticipated at this time.

discussion...recent thunderstorm development has been concentrated
in a couple of areas - one over northeastern illinois/northwestern
indiana and another between mke and osh in wisconsin. these storms
are in an uncapped thermodynamic environment, with subtle low-level
confluence and lift associated with an approaching shortwave trough
over southwestern wisconsin encouraging development. strong
instability (greater than 3000 j/kg mucape) will continue to support
additional storm development along with a risk of isolated damaging
wind gusts and hail, though storms should be mostly outflow-dominant
given weak low-level and deep shear. the loosely organized nature
of the convection and lack of deep shear should keep the severe
threat isolated through the remainder of the afternoon. thus, a ww
issuance is not anticipated.

..cook/grams.. 07/02/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...iwx...grr...ind...lot...ilx...mkx...dvn...

lat...lon 43188967 42369016 41519041 40889023 40859021 40578893
40538727 40628556 41118483 41978449 42738474 43108541
43248625 43518786 43618879 43438940 43188967


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
414 am edt tue jul 2 2019

lez061-142>149-162>169-ohz003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-paz001>003-030815-
lake erie open waters from ripley to buffalo ny-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie open waters from willowick to geneva-on-the-lake oh-
lake erie open waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie open waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-ashtabula inland-
hancock-seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-wyandot-crawford-
richland-ashland-wayne-stark-mahoning-marion-morrow-holmes-knox-
ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-
414 am edt tue jul 2 2019

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie, north central
ohio, northeast ohio, northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

there is the possibility that a few thunderstorms could reach severe
criteria today. the main threat will be strong damaging wind gusts.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.


Links

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20289295

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20313058

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20310669

http://www.toledoblade.com/opinion/editorials/2019/06/30/they-didnt-fit-the-mold-keith-burris-commentary/stories/20190630041

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20289688

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20286880

https://ia.net/topics/take-the-power-back
https://24ways.org/2016/what-the-heck-is-inclusive-design/
https://davidyat.es/2019/06/24/indieweb/
https://indieweb.org/2019/Schedule
https://disquiet.com/2019/06/16/word-blog-20th-anniversary-1999/
https://eli.li/2019/06/29/link-logging
https://micro.blog/smokey/4302866
https://eli.li/entry/20180318015703
https://inessential.com/2019/04/11/wishing_for_blog_search_engines
https://inessential.com/2019/04/14/more_thoughts_at_random_on_blog_search_e
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20324747
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20331569
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20331063
https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwaatmget.php?x=MIC115&y=0
https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwaatmget.php?x=OHC069&y=1
https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwaatmget.php?x=OHC051&y=0
http://toledoweather.info/darksky.html
http://sawv.org/2019/07/02/links-and-notes-tue-jul-2-2019.html

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