Links and Notes - Wed, Jun 12, 2019

2:47 p.m.

Today is another amazingly pleasant summer day: low humidity, sunny with some clouds, breezy at times, comfy air temps in the 70s with dew points in the 40s. No need for fans at anytime of the day and night. Windows up. Cool enough at night to cover up with blankets. Perfect summer weather.


Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jun 12, 2019 1:52 pm EDT
Weather : A Few Clouds
Temperature : 76 F
Humidity : 35%
Wind Speed : ESE 10 mph
Barometer : 29.93 in
Dewpoint: 46 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
Jun 12, 2019 1:53 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 77 F
Humidity : 36%
Wind Speed : SSE 10 mph
Wind Gust 22 mph
Barometer : 29.94 in
Dewpoint: 48 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
Jun 12, 2019 2:35 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 76 F
Humidity : 37%
Wind Speed : S 10 mph
Barometer : 29.91 in
Dewpoint: 48 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Date and Time: 02:45 PM, Wed, Jun 12, 2019
Summary: Clear
Air Temp: 78 F
Dew Point: 49 F
Humidity: 36 %
Wind Direction: Southeast
Wind Speed: 5 mph
Wind Gust: 9 mph
Apparent Air Temp: F
Pressure: 29.91 inches
UV Index: High : 7.0
Cloud Cover: 19 % : Mostly Clear
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 9.83 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 91 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: West


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jun 12, 2019 12:31 am

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. South wind around 11 mph.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10pm and 5am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. High near 63. Southwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10pm, then a slight chance of showers between 10pm and 3am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 49. West wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. West wind 9 to 14 mph.

Friday Night: A chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
131 pm edt wed jun 12 2019

.synopsis...
high pressure over western new york will move off the new england
coast today. low pressure will deepen as it tracks northeast across
the great lakes on thursday, pulling a cold front east across the
area. high pressure will return to the ohio valley on friday.

&&

.near term /through thursday/...
slightly re-oriented the precip chances for this evening with
this midday update. model guidance continues to show moisture
streaming northward across ohio to the central highlands by this
evening. this may be delayed as we continue to mix with
dewpoints now down in the 40s/low 50s. better cumulus field
still across ky as of midday. temperatures on track.

previous discussion...sunny skies this morning will be
replaced by increasing clouds as moisture spreads north on the
back side of the departing surface high. a plume of moisture
will spread north across western ohio with a few showers
starting to develop between findlay and marion by early evening.
showers are expected to expand across northwest ohio this
evening as the upper trough deepens across illinois. large scale
forcing will ramp up overnight with good coverage of showers
expected across all but perhaps nw pa where it may take until
early thursday morning for rain to arrive. a few thunderstorms
are possible this evening with decreasing coverage overnight.
highs today will be similar to yesterday in the west and 3-6
degrees warmer in the east. raised min temperatures for tonight
given the coverage of clouds and showers.

some areas may see a break in precipitation on thursday morning as
drier mid-level air wraps into the system aloft. this break will be
short lived as precipitation fills back in as the cold front sweeps
east with impressive height falls through the column for mid-
june. although temperatures will be well below normal for june
in the low to mid 60s, surface based cape of 500-1000 j/kg is
expected to across the eastern half of the area with a cold
pool of -20c at 500mb wrapping in from the west. this will
result in scattered thunderstorm activity. skinny cape and low
freezing levels will make small hail common but can not rule out
a few better storms capable of marginally severe hail or gusty
winds across ne ohio/nw pa.

&&

.short term /thursday night through saturday night/...
still some lingering showers/thunderstorms thursday evening as the
upper trough finally begins to move east of the region. it will
likely take until friday morning to get all of the showers out of nw
pa. we then have a brief period of high pressure that will ridge
across into at least friday evening. however the next ripple of low
pressure will arrive at some point saturday with incresing chances
of showers and thunderstorms. a frontal boundary in the area and
continued troughiness will keep the threat for showers going into
saturday night.

thursday night will be a cool night with lows in the 40s for inland
locations. as long as the winds remain elevated there should not be
any threat of frost. high in the mid 60s to lower 70s on friday
warming to the 70s area wide on saturday.

&&

.long term /sunday through tuesday/...
models keep a frontal boundary over the region through the long term
forecast as an upper level trough persists. this means that we will
have to deal with scattered showers/thunderstorms but at least it
does not look like an all day rain at this time.

temperatures through the long term should be very close to seasonal
averages.

&&

.aviation /12z wednesday through sunday/...
vfr conditions going into the evening but trend into overnight
will be for deteriorating conditions. a plume of moisture will
be spreading northward and with an upper trough showers are
expected to develop overhead and expand during the evening
hours. this focus will shift east through thursday morning, but
additional showers will break out for thursday with decent
areal coverage. thunderstorms are not out of the question this
evening or tomorrow, but best chances would be across the east
tomorrow. south-southeast winds will continue through much of
the next 24 hours, but toward 18z thursday a cold front from the
west will be approaching and we will have a shift to the west.

outlook...non-vfr thursday night and again on saturday/sunday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over eastern ohio will drift of the new england coast
this afternoon. low pressure over lake michigan wednesday will move
to the central lakes wednesday night and deepen by thursday morning.
this will help to increase winds from the southwest thursday morning
with winds becoming westerly in the wake of a cold front by thursday
evening. winds may increase to around 30 knots with small craft
advisories expected. the high waves will also bring erosion concerns
from avon lake to ripley and the threat of rip currents for thursday
night into friday. high pressure moves over the lower ohio valley by
friday morning. saturday the high will move off the east coast as
low pressure moves into the western great lakes and central plains.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...kec
near term...kec/oudeman
short term...mm
long term...mm
aviation...oudeman
marine...mm


nearshore marine forecast
national weather service cleveland oh
933 am edt wed jun 12 2019

for waters within five nautical miles of shore

waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

lez142-143-122030-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
933 am edt wed jun 12 2019

.this afternoon...south winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east. mostly
sunny. waves 1 foot or less.
.tonight...east winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. showers with
a chance of thunderstorms. waves 1 foot or less.
.thursday...south winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to
20 knots. showers and scattered thunderstorms. waves 2 feet or
less.
.thursday night...west winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to
30 knots. showers likely with scattered thunderstorms in the
evening, then a chance of showers overnight. waves 1 to 3 feet.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday.

the water temperature off toledo is 67 degrees, off cleveland 58
degrees and off erie 62 degrees.

$$

lez144>146-122030-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
933 am edt wed jun 12 2019

.this afternoon...southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east.
mostly sunny. waves 1 foot or less.
.tonight...east winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with a
chance of thunderstorms overnight. waves 1 foot or less.
.thursday...south winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to
20 knots. showers and scattered thunderstorms. waves 1 to 3 feet.
.thursday night...west winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to
30 knots. showers likely with scattered thunderstorms in the
evening, then a chance of showers overnight. waves 2 to 4 feet
building to 3 to 6 feet. waves occasionally around 7 feet.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday.

the water temperature off toledo is 67 degrees, off cleveland 58
degrees and off erie 62 degrees.

$$

lez147>149-122030-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-
the lake oh-lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-
lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
933 am edt wed jun 12 2019

.this afternoon...southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east.
mostly sunny. waves 1 foot or less.
.tonight...east winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to
20 knots. a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. waves
2 feet or less.
.thursday...south winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest.
showers and scattered thunderstorms. waves 1 to 3 feet.
.thursday night...southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to
30 knots. showers and scattered thunderstorms in the evening,
then showers likely overnight. waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to
6 feet. waves occasionally around 7 feet.

winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

see lake erie open lakes forecast for friday through sunday.

the water temperature off toledo is 67 degrees, off cleveland 58
degrees and off erie 62 degrees.


HWO not for us.


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
440 am edt wed jun 12 2019

ohz011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089-paz001>003-130845-
cuyahoga-lake-geauga-ashtabula inland-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-
wayne-stark-mahoning-holmes-ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-
southern erie-crawford-
440 am edt wed jun 12 2019

this hazardous weather outlook is for northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

scattered thunderstorms are expected on thursday afternoon. small
hail will be common with a few of the strongest storms capable of
producing hail to nickel size or gusty winds to 50 mph.

northwest to westerly winds up to 30 mph and waves of 3 to 6 feet
will lead to a high swimming risk at lake erie beaches thursday night
and friday. an increase in shoreline erosion and higher water levels
can also be expected.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

ohz003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047-130845-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-hancock-seneca-huron-wyandot-
crawford-richland-ashland-marion-morrow-knox-
440 am edt wed jun 12 2019

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Links

HN discussion about the latest Meeker report.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20156842

Top comment:

From page 29, average customer acquisition cost has risen by ~33% in just the last two years... they make the point on the next slide that having customer acquisition costs exceed a customer's lifetime value can't really succeed for long.

I think this, specifically, is what will spell the doom of Uber and Lyft, and potentially many of the food delivery companies -- they rely on insane growth curves to generate new investment, and customer acquisition is just so unbelievably competitive/expensive, it's an arms race that (IMO) has to collapse at some point.

Another comment:

Wow, just kind of crazy how virtually all the top 20 Internet companies are US and China. The only other country represented is Japan with Recruit Holdings, and a huge part of that (maybe majority?) is due to them owning Indeed, which was founded in Austin.

Another comment:

50% of the world with access to the internet, that's staggering. Slide 10 shows that there's still a lot of room for growth in Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East regions, but clearly there are bigger issues involved there.


The new Dropbox (dropbox.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20163389

Facebook Emails Could Show Zuckerberg Knew of Questionable Privacy Practices (wsj.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20165839

Maine Governor Signs Strictest Internet Protections in the U.S. (govtech.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20164014


http://www.toledoblade.com/local/environment/2019/06/11/First-seismometer-in-Toledo-area-installed/stories/20190611172

http://www.toledoblade.com/local/politics/2019/06/11/ohio-gop-senators-target-lake-erie-bill-of-rights-in-budget/stories/20190611149

http://www.toledoblade.com/opinion/editorials/2019/06/12/blitz-is-not-enough-for-toledo-potholes/stories/20190607199

http://www.toledoblade.com/opinion/editorials/2019/06/11/time-running-out-for-american-coal-miners-pensions/stories/20190612015

http://www.toledoblade.com/a-e/food/2019/06/12/cheap-eats-breaks-ice-restaurant-and-bar-menu-review/stories/20190612012

http://www.toledoblade.com/sports/college/2019/06/12/ncaa-college-baseball-world-series-michigan-wolverines-rarity/stories/20190612024

http://www.toledoblade.com/a-e/music-theater-dance/2019/06/12/the-52-finest-toledo-promenade-park-concert-series-movie-night-downtown/stories/20190601039