Links and Notes - Sat, Apr 13, 2019

4:55 p.m.

After a quick scan of the backyard, I was surprised to see 15 to 18 SCJU foraging on our backyard. I scattered more millet this morning. Also, a HETH foraged on the lawn for insects.

The little vivid blue flowers attracted a variety of bees and other insects. Mining bees, a bumble bee, and a honey bee foraged on the flowers.

3:39 p.m.

Deb and I went birdwatching at the Magee Marsh boardwalk for songbirds and Howard Marsh to see the Snowy Owl, which was fantastic.

The songbird activity at Magee was lower than I expected. Kinglets were about a 50-50 mix between Golden-crowned and Ruby-crowned, as expected for mid-April.

Warbler-wise, I only observed the Yellow-rumped and the Black-and-White. We saw a few other temperate climate bird species in low numbers, onesies and twosies.

But while on the southwest side of the big loop on the boardwalk, we watched 14 White Pelicans fly around over Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge and Magee Marsh, south of the boardwalk. Watching White Pelicans fly around is one of my favorite bird sightings.

And one of the best bird sounds occurred too while we were on the boardwalk. We heard Sandhill Cranes calling.

Some Ruby-crowned Kinglets sang. They have one of my favorite songs among the eastern U.S. songbirds. Two weeks ago, we listened to a Winter Wren sing repeatedly at the west entrance of the boardwalk.

Last week, we saw at least a dozen Winter Wrens, and none sang. Winter Wrens hardly every sing in migration, according to my observations. In my opinion, the Winter Wren has the best song of all of our regularly occurring eastern U.S. songbirds.

I bundled up with a scarf and cotton gloves. Temps were in the 40s, warming to low 50s, but it was breezy from the west. The wind pounded us at the wide open Howard Marsh, but after a while, I didn't notice the wind. The Snowy Owl grabbed our attention.

Metzger Marsh and Magee Marsh were closed on Thursday, due to high water or flooding along the shoreline areas of those two marshes. Strong and persistent E-NE winds on Wednesday and Thursday caused shoreline flooding over northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan.

Looks like something similar could occur tomorrow. We went birdwatching today instead of tomorrow because of tomorrow's forecast. We could receive a fair amount of rain from tonight into early Monday morning. Temps will be cold. It will be windy. Brutal.

I saw a Barn Swallow flying around at Howard Marsh today. April 13 is pushing it for Barn Swallows, but it's about the time that they first appear around here. Long, cold, wet weather can be hard on the early arriving Purple Martins and Barn Swallows.

But Tuesday will be nice with sunshine and temps in the 60s.

Short-term forecast:

Tonight: Rain, mainly after midnight. Low around 38. West wind 7 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday: Rain. High near 41. Northeast wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: Rain likely before midnight, then a chance of showers, mainly between midnight and 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

We could have strong thunderstorms over parts of northwest Ohio on Thursday, according to the Storm Prediction Center's six-day outlook. That's a long way out, but it's worth noting.


lakeshore hazard message
national weather service cleveland oh
254 pm edt sat apr 13 2019

...gusty winds may cause water levels on lake erie to rise...

.strong northeast winds will develop sunday on the lake causing a
seiche to develop. this will result in high water levels on the
western end of lake erie. higher than normal water levels may cause
lakeshore flooding sunday.

ohz003-007>009-140700-
/o.new.kcle.ls.a.0002.190414t1200z-190414t2100z/
lucas-ottawa-sandusky-erie-
254 pm edt sat apr 13 2019

...lakeshore flood watch in effect from sunday morning through
sunday afternoon...

the national weather service in cleveland has issued a lakeshore
flood watch, which is in effect from sunday morning through
sunday afternoon.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a lakeshore flood watch is issued when conditions are favorable
for lakeshore flooding to develop. residents on or near the shore
should begin to take action to protect property. listen for later
statements or warnings.


TOL:
Apr 13, 2019 2:52 pm EDT
Weather : Fair
Temperature : 60 F
Humidity : 26%
Wind Speed : WSW 16 mph - Gust 24 mph
Barometer : 30.06 in
Dewpoint: 25 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Apr 13, 2019 12:44 am

Tonight: Rain, mainly after midnight. Low around 38. West wind 7 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday: Rain. High near 41. Northeast wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: Rain likely before midnight, then a chance of showers, mainly between midnight and 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Monday: Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Northwest wind 13 to 15 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. West wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.

Tuesday: A slight chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 64. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Wednesday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.


day 4-8 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0400 am cdt sat apr 13 2019

valid 161200z - 211200z

...discussion...
medium-range models continue to depict progression of a highly
amplified upper trough across the u.s. through the day 4-8 period.
while differences are rather substantial with respect to the initial
strength of this trough -- and thus its associated surface
reflection -- as it exits the rockies and moves into the plains day
5 (wednesday 4-17), evolution/progression of the upper system
thereafter is reasonably similar as it traverses the central and
eastern u.s. through the end of the period.

given the amplitude of the trough, and accompanying/well-developed
surface system, a favorably strong wind field will accompany the
progression of this system, along with ample northward advection of
gulf moisture. as such, it appears that a kinematic and
thermodynamic environment supportive of severe storms (and all modes
of severe weather) will exist each day -- and therefore 15% risk
areas are being added. though model differences continue to cast
some uncertainty as to location of the daily risk, as well as the
magnitude, it appears that any risk day 4 (tuesday 4-16) will be
limited. day 5 (wednesday 4-17) however, as the upper trough
advances more fully into the central u.s., risk for severe weather
is evident from roughly the mid-missouri valley south across eastern
portions of the plains, and eastward to roughly the mississippi
valley. day 6 (thursday 4-18), the risk should extend from roughly
the mississippi valley to the appalachians, and as far north as the
midwest states. day 7 (friday 4-19), risk should exist primarily
east of the mountains. finally, by day 8 (saturday 4-20), the front
will likely be advancing offshore, and thus diminished potential is
apparent.

..goss.. 04/13/2019

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1F. Molinari-139:20am
T2T. Finau-119:20am
T2T. Woods-119:20am
4B. Koepka-109:09am
T5I. Poulter-99:09am
T5W. Simpson-99:09am
T7J. Harding-88:58am
T7D. Johnson-88:47am
T7M. Kuchar-88:58am
T7L. Oosthuizen-88:47am
T7X. Schauffele-88:58am
T12R. Fowler-78:47am
T12A. Scott-78:36am
T14P. Cantlay-68:36am
T14J. Day-68:14am
T14P. Mickelson-68:25am
T14T. Olesen-68:36am
T14J. Rahm-68:25am
T14J. Thomas-68:25am
T20L. Bjerregaard-58:14am
T20B. Watson-58:14am
T22C. Conners-48:03am
T22T. Fleetwood-48:03am
T22J. Spieth-48:03am