Links and Notes - Wed, Mar 13, 2019

11:52 a.m.

Last hour at TOL:
Mar 13, 2019 10:52 am EDT
Weather : Light Rain
Temperature : 41 F
Humidity : 65%
Wind Speed : S 6 mph
Barometer : 30.07 in
Dewpoint: 30 F
Visibility : 7.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 37 F

10:19 a.m.

TOL:
Mar 13, 2019 9:52 am EDT
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 41 F
Humidity : 55%
Wind Speed : SSE 6 mph
Barometer : 30.06 in
Dewpoint: 26 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 37 F


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Mar 13, 2019 9:21 am

Today: A chance of showers, mainly before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 52. South wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: A chance of showers, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. South wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. High near 65. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Showers, mainly before 2am. Low around 44. Breezy, with a southwest wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday: A chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. West wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers before 2am, then a slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Sunday: A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 40.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
457 am edt wed mar 13 2019

ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-140900-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot-crawford-marion-
457 am edt wed mar 13 2019

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.

there is a slight risk for severe weather on thursday evening. the
main risk would be isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.


day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1255 am cdt wed mar 13 2019

valid 141200z - 151200z

...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the tennessee
valley northward to southern lower michigan...

...summary...
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of
mississippi and alabama northward through central tennessee and
kentucky into indiana, western ohio and southern michigan. damaging
winds, hail and tornadoes will all be possible from midday through
the evening hours.

...synopsis...
the intense mid/upper trough over the mid-mo valley will continue to
shift east/northeast toward the great lakes and eastern ontario by
friday morning. this will maintain a roughly 80-100 kt southwesterly
midlevel jet streak across the lower ohio valley toward lake
ontario. at the surface, a still strong but filling cyclone will
spread northeast in tandem with the upper level trough, arriving in
the vicinity of james bay by friday morning. as the low lifts
northeast, a cold front, oriented south-southwest from eastern ia to
central ar to near the tx gulf coast at the beginning of the period,
will shift eastward across the midwest to the lower ms valley region
by thursday evening.

...lower ohio valley vicinity...
a strong south/southwesterly low level jet will transport gulf
moisture fairly far northward for this time of year, with at least a
narrow corridor of low 60s f dewpoints as far north as the lower
ohio river, and low-to-mid 50s f dewpoints into southern michigan.
while the better quality moisture will remain confined to the deep
south, forcing for ascent and deep layer shear are much more
impressive from the ohio valley into southern mi. additionally,
midlevel lapse rates are expected to steepen from ky/in into mi as
stronger height falls and colder temperatures aloft overspread the
region ahead of a midlevel dryslot by midday.

all of this combined leads to a narrow warm sector characterized by
500-1000 j/kg mlcape, 6.5-7.5 c/km midlevel lapse rates,
impressive/large curved low level hodographs and 45+ kt effective
shear. while this parameter space is more than capable of supporting
widespread severe, including damaging winds and possible strong
tornadoes, quite a bit of uncertainty still exists. this is due in
part to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected in the
day 1/wed period, with ongoing convection possible in warm advection
regime at the start of the day 2/thu period. impacts of this
convection/residual cloud cover on destabilization, and how
far/quickly the surface cold front progresses by thursday morning
makes for a quite conditional scenario. as a result, have opted to
expand the slight risk northward across the mid-south into southern
mi. uncertainty and conditional nature of the threat will preclude
higher probs at this time across parts of ky/in/mi/oh, but potential
certainly exists for a higher-end threat to materialize across this
region, as implied by various cams in the 18-00z time frame.
observational and numerical guidance trends will be monitored
closely.

...tn valley toward the central gulf coast...

poorer lapse rates and much weaker forcing is expected with
southward extent as the upper trough ejects away from the region.
near-neutral height tendancies and warmer temperatures aloft will
result in weaker lapse rates compared to further north. still, deep
layer shear (45+ kt effective shear) will remain more than capable
of sustaining organized convection. with mid-to-upper 60s f
dewpoints resulting in 500-1000 j/kg mlcape, supporting bowing line
segments or supercells. damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be
possible with any sustained storms that can develop, but the lack of
stronger forcing will generally limit storm coverage.

...maximum risk by hazard...
tornado: 5% - slight
wind: 15% - slight
hail: 15% - slight

..leitman.. 03/13/2019

click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product

note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z

Links

A JavaScript-Free Front End (dev.to)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19367149

Zero Hedge Says Facebook Banned Users from Sharing Its Posts (bloomberg.com)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19368544


frigging hilarious. fear-mongering from TBL followed by silo-reliance by CERN.

Tim Berners-Lee: 'Stop web's downward plunge to dysfunctional future' (bbc.co.uk)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19363838

30th Anniversary of the World Wide Web [video] (cern.ch)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19366079

HN comment:

30th anniversary of the open web and they send it on facebook :/

Another HN comment:

30 years and the WWW is about sending people to Facebook to watch a video :(

From the CERN web page:

Please note that the Youtube recording has a time-lag on the soundtrack, so use our Facebook Live page instead for immediate access.

Hello reality. The web started as a way to display text-based documents. No interactivity. Nothing dynamic. Clicked a link, read text.

Well, the geeks added a ton of functionality to web servers, web browsers, and the web protocol.

TBL is mad about Facebook or something, and yet CERN demonstrates why people like to use the web on silos: video, images, interactivity, something more than plain text.

Today's so-called web is not the same as the early to mid 1990s because the majority of the world don't want the web of the past. They want today's web, warts and all.

People can choose what they want and they can choose how to use the web. I use the web much differently than family members, and that's okay. Nobody is right and nobody is wrong. We're just different. What a shock. Each human is unique.

And the web provides ways to use the web in many different ways. The fear-mongerers like TBL act like only a handful of websites exist. This is not the same as only two major smartphone operating systems.

Millions of websites exist. The web can be used to stream video AND to display nothing but text. The web can be used for personal shopping, banking, etc. and to view pet photos. The web can be used by massive silos and personal websites and small hobby message boards. I can use the bloated web like for listening to music at YouTube or shopping at Amazon, or I can use the lightweight web to create and read content here at my own website.

I'm not silly enough to get angry at Big Tech for building better mousetraps. Big Tech and their silos made it easy for EVERYONE to become publishers. Big Tech made it easy to connect, share, and consume content. Big Tech has helped a ton of people to learn. It's much easier today to learn about a new craft or hobby than it was 20-plus years ago.

That's what the web has done well. It has helped people. And Big Tech is major part of that.

The anti-Big Tech crowd, which can include me at times, needs to create products that are easy to use.

The reality is that for the majority of the web-connected people, it's not as easy to manage a personal website as it is to manage several social media silo accounts. While I have no problem with the former because I have been doing web programming since 1996, I represent a tiny fraction of web users. Most people do not want to be programmers, sys admins, and designers. They want to use their social media silos like they use their kitchen faucet or a coffee pot.

People like TBL need to quit bitching because that does not encourage anyone to stop using silos to stay connected with family, friends, non-profits, clubs, and small businesses.

The geeks need to encourage family to include blogging into their mix. That's a simple start. Own a domain name, use a CMS-hosted solution, like svbtle, Blogger, Wordpress.com, and create content on that domain name. And use a feed reader or a bookmarks page of URLs to read similar websites.

I tried to do that with my wife last year, and the project went nowhere. If I fail to convince my wife, what luck will I have with family members who live elsewhere around the country?

The whining about Big Tech does not help. Where's TBL's personal website? He could lead by example by joining the IndieWeb.org. He could display a blogroll. He could include the webring that's associated with the IndieWeb. He could discuss feeds and feed readers.

The blogosphere of the late 1990s and early aughts was the decentralized social network in a way.