Links and Notes - Sat, Jan 12, 2019

9:50 p.m.

Deb, Barney, and I went for a walk around our neighborhood from 5:30 p.m. to 6:10 p.m. Steady, light snow fell. Temps were in the upper 20s. Occasional moderate wind blew the snow. Dusk and after dusk. Lights on. Good scene. Around 0.75 to 1.0 inches of snow accumulation existed at around 6:00 p.m.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jan 12, 2019 8:52 pm EST
Weather : Light Snow Fog/Mist
Temperature : 29 F
Humidity : 85%
Wind Speed : E 12 mph
Barometer : 30.36 in
Dewpoint: 25 F
Visibility : 1.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 19 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Jan 12, 2019 8:53 pm EST
Weather : Light Snow Fog/Mist
Temperature : 29 F
Humidity : 88%
Wind Speed : ENE 14 mph - Gust 22 mph
Barometer : 30.37 in
Dewpoint: 26 F
Visibility : 1.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 18 F
Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
(near Lambertville)

Jan 12, 2019 9:15 pm EST
Weather : Light Snow
Temperature : 28 F
Humidity : 88%
Wind Speed : ENE 10 mph - Gust 17 mph
Barometer : 30.38 in
Dewpoint: 25 F
Visibility : 3.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 19 F

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 12, 2019 7:19 pm

Tonight: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 23. Northeast wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Sunday: Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 31. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 18. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 32. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. West wind around 7 mph.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 32.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

Thursday Night: A chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37.

Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

3:00 p.m.

past hour at TOL:
Jan 12, 2019 1:52 pm EST
Weather : Light Snow
Temperature : 30 F
Humidity : 63%
Wind Speed : E 13 mph - Gust 21 mph
Barometer : 30.38 in
Dewpoint: 19 F
Visibility : 6.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 20 F

it saw snow falling here at home in west toledo at 2:15 p.m. sidewalk and road covered. snow prob started around 2pm.

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 12, 2019 1:00 pm

This Afternoon: Snow, mainly after 3pm. High near 31. East wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 23. Northeast wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Sunday: Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 31. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 32.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


Next 24 Hours: Snow (1–2 in.) starting this afternoon.

Mixed precipitation throughout the week, with high temperatures bottoming out at 31°F on Tuesday.

Sat, Jan 12, 2019 - Snow (1–2 in.) starting in the afternoon. Cloud cover: Partly Cloudy. Precip type: snow. Snow accumulation: 1.229 inches. Precip probability: 45 %. Low temp 27 at 08:00 AM. High temp 32 at 01:00 PM. Dew point 22. Humidity 78. Apparent high temp 26. Wind: East at 8 mph. Sunrise: 08:01 AM. Sunset: 05:26 PM. Moon: 0.2 = Waxing Crescent.

Sun, Jan 13, 2019 - Mostly cloudy throughout the day. Cloud cover: Mostly Cloudy. Precip type: snow. Snow accumulation: 0.458 inches. Precip probability: 27 %. Low temp 21 at 07:00 AM. High temp 31 at 03:00 PM. Dew point 23. Humidity 78. Apparent high temp 20. Wind: Northeast at 15 mph. Sunrise: 08:00 AM. Sunset: 05:27 PM. Moon: 0.24 = Waxing Crescent.

Mon, Jan 14, 2019 - Partly cloudy starting in the evening. Cloud cover: Mostly Clear. Precip type: snow. Snow accumulation: 0.017 inches. Precip probability: 1 %. Low temp 23 at 07:00 AM. High temp 33 at 04:00 PM. Dew point 19. Humidity 75. Apparent high temp 28. Wind: North-Northwest at 4 mph. Sunrise: 08:00 AM. Sunset: 05:28 PM. Moon: 0.27 = Waxing Gibbous.

Tue, Jan 15, 2019 - Mostly cloudy throughout the day. Cloud cover: Mostly Cloudy. Precip type: snow. Snow accumulation: 0.155 inches. Precip probability: 4 %. Low temp 29 at 10:00 PM. High temp 31 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 22. Humidity 83. Apparent high temp 21. Wind: West-Southwest at 11 mph. Sunrise: 07:59 AM. Sunset: 05:29 PM. Moon: 0.3 = Waxing Gibbous.

Wed, Jan 16, 2019 - Overcast throughout the day. Cloud cover: Cloudy. Precip type: snow. Snow accumulation: 0.191 inches. Precip probability: 4 %. Low temp 21 at 03:00 AM. High temp 35 at 07:00 AM. Dew point 25. Humidity 74. Apparent high temp 26. Wind: West-Northwest at 6 mph. Sunrise: 07:59 AM. Sunset: 05:30 PM. Moon: 0.34 = Waxing Gibbous.

Thu, Jan 17, 2019 - Mostly cloudy throughout the day. Cloud cover: Cloudy. Precip type: snow. Snow accumulation: 0.112 inches. Precip probability: 7 %. Low temp 31 at 08:00 PM. High temp 32 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 20. Humidity 74. Apparent high temp 25. Wind: East-Southeast at 7 mph. Sunrise: 07:59 AM. Sunset: 05:31 PM. Moon: 0.37 = Waxing Gibbous.

Fri, Jan 18, 2019 - Snow (< 1 in.) overnight. Cloud cover: Cloudy. Precip type: rain. Snow accumulation: 0.0 inches. Precip probability: 18 %. Low temp 30 at 03:00 AM. High temp 36 at 04:00 PM. Dew point 31. Humidity 86. Apparent high temp 31. Wind: South at 2 mph. Sunrise: 07:58 AM. Sunset: 05:33 PM. Moon: 0.41 = Waxing Gibbous.

10:16 a.m.

Cloudy/overcast in Toledo this morning. Nice weather, however, for wandering around outside.

Our total snow accumulation by 7:00 a.m. Sunday had been less than one inch. Now it's in the 1 to 2 inches category.

TOL:
Jan 12, 2019 9:52 am EST
Weather : Mostly Cloudy
Temperature : 28 F
Humidity : 69%
Wind Speed : E 8 mph
Barometer : 30.42 in
Dewpoint: 19 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 20 F


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 12, 2019 9:34 am

Today: Snow, mainly after 3pm. High near 31. East wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 23. Northeast wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Sunday: Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 31. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 32.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
538 am est sat jan 12 2019

lez061-142>149-162>169-ohz003-006>014-018>023-031>033-089-paz001>003-
131045-
lake erie open waters from ripley to buffalo ny-
lake erie nearshore waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie nearshore waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-
lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh-
lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh-
lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh-
lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh-
lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh-
lake erie open waters from willowick to geneva-on-the-lake oh-
lake erie open waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-
lake erie open waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny-lucas-wood-
ottawa-sandusky-erie-lorain-cuyahoga-lake-geauga-ashtabula inland-
seneca-huron-medina-summit-portage-trumbull-wayne-stark-mahoning-
ashtabula lakeshore-northern erie-southern erie-crawford-
538 am est sat jan 12 2019

this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie, north central
ohio, northeast ohio, northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...today and tonight.

light to moderate snow will move into northern and central ohio
later today through tonight. visibility may drop to half a mile to
one mile at times under the heavier snow bands. the highest snowfall
is expected over portions of central ohio.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday.

hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.


area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
559 am est sat jan 12 2019

...12z aviation forecast update...

.synopsis...
low pressure over oklahoma today will move east reach tennessee
by sunday. sunday night and monday, high pressure will move in
from the north. a stronger cold front will move into the region
by the middle of next week.

&&

.near term /through sunday/...
the regional radar mosaic sums up the weather for later today
across central and northern ohio. a shield of light to moderate
snow has developed over the ohio river valley associated with a
storm system over the central u.s. initially this area of snow
will encounter dry air near the surface and will take a little
while to overcome the drier air later this morning.

high-res models indicate the snow to start moving in and
reaching the ground by 10 am from a line near findlay to
mansfield to millersburg. the snow line will advance
northwestward and be near toledo to cleveland to youngstown by 2
pm. the snow will try to reach near ashtabula to meadville by
this evening but it will not go further north than that because
of dry air and loss of upper level support. one note to add is
there will be a sharp cutoff on the northern edge of the snow.
across central ohio, there will be times when the snow comes
down at a moderate clip for a few hours and may have up to half
inch to one inch per hour snowfall rates this afternoon into
early evening. visibilities may drop to between half a mile and
1 mile under the higher snowfall rates. we went with an average
snow to liquid ratio of 14 to 1. temperatures today will climb
to the upper 20s to around 30.

cold ground will allow much of the snow to accumulate and
the highest totals are expected across central ohio and points
southward. we basically have around an inch for the i-80
corridor. between i-80 and highway 224 corridor, we have 1 to 2
inches total. between highway 224 and highway 30, we have 2 to
3 inches. between highway 30 southward, we have 3 to 4 inches
total. and the highest snowfall totals are expected in the
central ohio area closer to highway 36 where 4 to 5 inches are
possible. we issued a winter weather advisory for areas that
will be close to 4 inches or higher or generally along and south
of highway 30.

the upper level support will decrease later this evening as the
system shears apart. we will see the light snow decrease later
in the evening and during the overnight hours. cloudy skies will
continue through sunday with cold temperatures mainly below
freezing.

&&

.short term /sunday night through tuesday night/...
high pressure over the central conus will move eastward on sunday
and become anchored over the lower ohio valley for much of the
beginning of next week. with this, not expecting too much in the way
of weather during the short term forecast period and have a dry
forecast. there also won`t be too much in the way of temperature
advection over the region through the period, so will keep
seasonable high temperatures for monday and tuesday. low
temperatures may be a bit on the cooler side with snowpack expected
over central ohio, so teens will be possible on both sunday and
monday night.

&&

.long term /wednesday through friday/...
fairly good agreement in the extended guidance for the long term
forecast period. a clipper system will pass north of the great lakes
region on wednesday and extend a cold front across the area on
wednesday afternoon. high pressure then reinserts itself into the
region on thursday before a pair of disturbances enter the area for
friday and into the weekend.

for wednesday, some warm air appears to advect into the region ahead
of the cold front so highs will probably be a couple of degrees
higher than the beginning of the week. the frontal passage on
wednesday does look mostly dry as the surface high from the
beginning of the week will prevent some deep synoptic moisture from
entering the region. so far, only have snow mentioned in the snow
belt areas, where the lake will add some moisture to help produce
some precipitation, and folks in toledo, findlay, or marion will see
nary a snowflake. will keep a dry forecast for the area on thursday
with high pressure coming back into the region with temperatures
back closer to normal behind the cold front. friday into the weekend
looks active and have kept chance pops in the forecast. the big
change right now is that warm air appears to surge into the region
ahead of the disturbances and p-type will be an issue as rain, snow,
or mixed precipitation is possible, as such have a rain/snow mix in
the forecast that will need to be refined down the road.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr conditions expected the through early this morning. mvfr
ceilings will return by midday or early afternoon with lower
ceilings and a shield of light snow moving in from the
southwest. have timing from southwest to northeast with the
timing of light snow for late morning through the afternoon. we
will likely see widespread mvfr ceilings and visibility drops
due to light snow with some locations seeing ifr conditions for
the higher elevations of central ohio into eastern ohio late
saturday afternoon and evening. winds will be becoming
northeasterly 5 to 12 knots. light snow will continue through
this evening and gradually taper off after 06z tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible early sunday in light snow.

&&

.marine...
low pressure over the south central plains this morning will move
east today towards the tennessee valley. this low will allow for
easterly flow to persist throughout the day and increase overnight
as flow shifts more northeast. conditions on the lake for tonight
into sunday morning are fairly close to small craft advisory-worthy,
but will hold off issuance to allow for the day shift to take a
better look in timing and area, as my first guess is that it would
be the central and western basins. high pressure builds into the
region behind this low on sunday and anchors itself over the lower
ohio valley through tuesday, allowing for fairly benign weather
conditions on the lake. a clipper system and associated cold front
will move through the great lakes region on wednesday, allowing for
southwesterly flow to return to the region for tuesday and wednesday
and northwesterly flow on wednesday night with the frontal passage.
high pressure then returns for thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 am est
sunday for ohz017-027>030-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...griffin
near term...griffin
short term...sefcovic
long term...sefcovic
aviation...griffin
marine...sefcovic


Dark Sky

Date and Time: 10:04 AM, Sat, Jan 12, 2019
Summary: Partly Cloudy
Air Temp: 28 F
Dew Point: 21 F
Humidity: 74 %
Wind Direction: East
Wind Speed: 5 mph
Wind Gust: 8 mph
Apparent Air Temp: 22 F
Pressure: 30.45 inches
UV Index: Low : 1.0
Cloud Cover: 39 % : Partly Cloudy
Precip Probability: 0 %
Precip Intensity: 0.0 : No Precip
Precip Type:
Visibility: 6.4 miles
Nearest Precip Distance: 1 miles
Nearest Precip Bearing: South


Dark Sky

Mixed precipitation throughout the week, with high temperatures bottoming out at 31°F on Tuesday.

Sat, Jan 12, 2019 - Snow (1–2 in.) starting in the afternoon. Cloud cover: Partly Cloudy. Precip type: snow. Snow accumulation: 1.229 inches. Precip probability: 45 %. Low temp 27 at 08:00 AM. High temp 32 at 01:00 PM. Dew point 22. Humidity 78. Apparent high temp 26. Wind: East at 8 mph. Sunrise: 08:01 AM. Sunset: 05:26 PM. Moon: 0.2 = Waxing Crescent.

Sun, Jan 13, 2019 - Mostly cloudy throughout the day. Cloud cover: Mostly Cloudy. Precip type: snow. Snow accumulation: 0.458 inches. Precip probability: 27 %. Low temp 21 at 07:00 AM. High temp 31 at 03:00 PM. Dew point 23. Humidity 78. Apparent high temp 20. Wind: Northeast at 15 mph. Sunrise: 08:00 AM. Sunset: 05:27 PM. Moon: 0.24 = Waxing Crescent.

Mon, Jan 14, 2019 - Partly cloudy starting in the evening. Cloud cover: Mostly Clear. Precip type: snow. Snow accumulation: 0.017 inches. Precip probability: 1 %. Low temp 23 at 07:00 AM. High temp 33 at 04:00 PM. Dew point 19. Humidity 75. Apparent high temp 28. Wind: North-Northwest at 4 mph. Sunrise: 08:00 AM. Sunset: 05:28 PM. Moon: 0.27 = Waxing Gibbous.

Tue, Jan 15, 2019 - Mostly cloudy throughout the day. Cloud cover: Mostly Cloudy. Precip type: snow. Snow accumulation: 0.155 inches. Precip probability: 4 %. Low temp 29 at 10:00 PM. High temp 31 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 22. Humidity 83. Apparent high temp 21. Wind: West-Southwest at 11 mph. Sunrise: 07:59 AM. Sunset: 05:29 PM. Moon: 0.3 = Waxing Gibbous.

Wed, Jan 16, 2019 - Overcast throughout the day. Cloud cover: Cloudy. Precip type: snow. Snow accumulation: 0.191 inches. Precip probability: 4 %. Low temp 21 at 03:00 AM. High temp 35 at 07:00 AM. Dew point 25. Humidity 74. Apparent high temp 26. Wind: West-Northwest at 6 mph. Sunrise: 07:59 AM. Sunset: 05:30 PM. Moon: 0.34 = Waxing Gibbous.

Thu, Jan 17, 2019 - Mostly cloudy throughout the day. Cloud cover: Cloudy. Precip type: snow. Snow accumulation: 0.112 inches. Precip probability: 7 %. Low temp 31 at 08:00 PM. High temp 32 at 05:00 PM. Dew point 20. Humidity 74. Apparent high temp 25. Wind: East-Southeast at 7 mph. Sunrise: 07:59 AM. Sunset: 05:31 PM. Moon: 0.37 = Waxing Gibbous.

Fri, Jan 18, 2019 - Snow (< 1 in.) overnight. Cloud cover: Cloudy. Precip type: rain. Snow accumulation: 0.0 inches. Precip probability: 18 %. Low temp 30 at 03:00 AM. High temp 36 at 04:00 PM. Dew point 31. Humidity 86. Apparent high temp 31. Wind: South at 2 mph. Sunrise: 07:58 AM. Sunset: 05:33 PM. Moon: 0.41 = Waxing Gibbous.