Links and Notes - Tue, Jan 8, 2019

2:20 p.m.

winds have increased early this afternoon.

scattered thundershowers/thunderstorms exist in the area. i thought that i heard thunder.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jan 8, 2019 1:52 pm EST
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 52 F
Humidity : 69%
Wind Speed : W 16 mph - Gust 24 mph
Barometer : 29.63 in
Dewpoint: 42 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Jan 8, 2019 1:53 pm EST
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 51 F
Humidity : 77%
Wind Speed : W 16 mph
Barometer : 29.64 in
Dewpoint: 44 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
(near Lambertville)
Jan 8, 2019 1:55 pm EST
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 52 F
Humidity : 71%
Wind Speed : W 14 mph - Gust 20 mph
Barometer : 29.64 in
Dewpoint: 43 F
Visibility : 10.00 statute miles


slightly east of us:

md 0012 concerning severe potential...watch unlikely for portions of oh...far northern wv...and western pa

mesoscale discussion 0012
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1254 pm cst tue jan 08 2019

areas affected...portions of oh...far northern wv...and western pa

concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely

valid 081854z - 082100z

probability of watch issuance...20 percent

summary...strong/gusty downdraft winds could produce isolated damage
through the afternoon and early evening. watch issuance will
probably not be needed, but radar trends will be closely monitored.

discussion...large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough
and exit region of a 90-100+ kt mid-level jet is beginning to
overspread the oh valley and lower great lakes region per water
vapor and visible satellite imagery. a recent increase in showers
and thunderstorms has occurred over northwestern oh along/near a
cold front, and this activity is expected to continue increasing in
coverage as it moves eastward around 35-40 kt through the remainder
of the afternoon and early evening. low-level moisture observed in
the 12z iln and pit soundings was quite limited, and 18z surface
dewpoints generally remain in the mid 40s due to mixing of the
boundary layer. still, some diurnal heating and related steepening
of low-level lapse rates has occurred. strong flow in the
cloud-bearing layer, particularly at mid levels, could potentially
be brought to the surface in convective downdrafts. resultant
strong/gusty surface winds may produce isolated damage, even with
the strongest observed winds probably remaining in the 35-50 kt
range. the limited low-level moisture and weak instability (mlcape
less than 500 j/kg) should tend to limit the strength of updrafts.
for now, watch issuance remains unlikely, but radar trends will be
closely monitored.

..gleason/hart.. 01/08/2019

...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

attn...wfo...ctp...pbz...rlx...cle...iln...

lat...lon 39438171 39538244 40118343 40678379 41248373 41608346
41598293 41438245 41588173 41808128 41998044 41787975
41527932 41077907 40367903 39577978 39328044 39438171

9:06 a.m.

Toledo Express Airport (KTOL)
Jan 8, 2019 8:52 am EST
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 50 F
Humidity : 89%
Wind Speed : SW 9 mph
Barometer : 29.74 in
Dewpoint: 47 F
Visibility : 5.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 46 F

Toledo Executive Airport (KTDZ)
(formerly Metcalf Airport)
Jan 8, 2019 8:53 am EST
Weather : Fog/Mist
Temperature : 49 F
Humidity : 96%
Wind Speed : SW 7 mph
Barometer : 29.75 in
Dewpoint: 48 F
Visibility : 4.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 46 F

Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH)
(near Lambertville)
Jan 8, 2019 8:56 am EST
Weather : Partly Cloudy
Temperature : 49 F
Humidity : 93%
Wind Speed : WSW 6 mph
Barometer : 29.73 in
Dewpoint: 47 F
Visibility : 7.00 statute miles
Wind Chill : 46 F


Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 8, 2019 6:36 am

Today: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 52 by noon, then falling to around 40 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a southwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A chance of snow showers before 4am, then a slight chance of snow showers after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Wednesday: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Northwest wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Northwest wind 14 to 16 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 30. Northwest wind 10 to 13 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 30.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35.


hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
556 am est tue jan 8 2019

ohz003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-091100-
lucas-wood-ottawa-sandusky-hancock-seneca-wyandot-crawford-marion-
morrow-
556 am est tue jan 8 2019

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and
northwest ohio.

.day one...today and tonight.

west winds could gust to 35 to 40 mph late this afternoon and
evening.

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.

no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.spotter information statement...

spotter activation is not expected at this time.


most of northern ohio, including most of the toledo area, is under a Marginal Risk for severe weather.

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0657 am cst tue jan 08 2019

valid 081300z - 091200z

...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of
northern/central ohio to western pennsylvania...

...summary...
thunderstorms may produce damaging and isolated severe gusts over
portions of ohio, northern west virginia and western pennsylvania
this afternoon.

...synopsis...
a progressive and fairly amplified synoptic pattern is underway, and
will shift eastward across the conus through this period. a broad
but not particularly intense cyclone, moving eastward across
northern on south of a split-flow pattern over hudson bay, will
anchor a synoptic-scale trough moving across the upper great lakes.
among several shortwaves embedded in the associated cyclonic flow is
a perturbation now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over ia.
this feature should move quickly eastward to oh by 00z, then to the
southeastern ny/nj/long island/southern new england region by 12z.

farther west, well-defined ridging now over the great basin and
pacific northwest will move to the rocky mountain states and
canadian rockies through the period. an upstream cyclone over the
northeastern pacific will weaken gradually as it moves northeastward
toward the bc coast (arriving there on day-2 as an open wave). the
associated synoptic trough will be approaching the west coast at the
end of the period, in support of general thunder potential from
parts of coastal or coastal central/northern ca.

at the surface, 11z analysis showed a low near dbq, related to the
mid/upper perturbation over ia. a cold front was drawn from there
southwestward, diagonally across mo to south-central/southwestern ok
and east-central nm. a wavy warm front extended from the low across
northern portions of il/in/oh then southward across western pa and
central/southern wv. the remnants of an older pacific frontal zone
-- now acting effectively as a dryline -- were drawn from central in
southwestward across the arklatex region and tx hill country to
eastern coahuila. the cold front will overtake the dryline today
from north to south as the low proceeds eastward across lower mi,
reaching the buf vicinity around 00z. by then the cold front should
extend across western pa, eastern ky, middle tn, southern la, and
south-central tx. by 12z the low should be occluded near pwm, with
the front arching across atlantic waters to northern/central fl and
across the central gulf.

...oh, northern wv, western pa...
two primary rounds of convection are expected across this region,
the second bearing the greater potential for damaging gusts:

  1. isolated thunderstorms this morning through midday, embedded in
    a broader area of showers related to strengthening moisture, within
    the warm-advection conveyor. the regime may be represented by
    ongoing, isolated convection in central oh, and should expand over
    northeastern oh then move rapidly east-northeastward into
    northwestern pa and perhaps extreme western ny. activity will occur
    in a leading warm-advection plume, as parcels are lifted gradually
    to an lfc amidst the onset of steepening low/middle-level lapse
    rates. though mostly elevated, some surface-based destabilization
    is possible in the inflow region, from warm advection and weak
    diabatic heating, and strong gusts are not out of the question.
    however, this is a smaller, weaker and more conditional convective-
    wind potential than the next episode.

  2. continued steepening of low/middle-level lapse rates is expected
    farther west across northern oh from midday through afternoon ahead
    of the cold front, as continued cooling in the midlevels (e.g.,
    500-700-mb layer) juxtaposed with low-level warm and moist advection
    and patches of favorable surface diabatic heating. the net effect
    should be a steady increase in preconvective/prefrontal buoyancy in
    a regime already characterized by weak cinh, despite temperatures in
    the low 50s f. this will support the development of scattered
    showers and widely scattered, low-topped thunderstorms along/ahead
    of the front.

though equilibrium levels only should reach to near 500 mb, time
series of forecast soundings, from the great majority of models that
have them available, reasonably suggest mlcape 300-600 j/kg will
develop, extending into layers colder than about -20 deg c suitable
for lightning production). although hodographs should be relatively
small, given the nearly unidirectional vertical wind profiles,
sufficient deep-layer speed shear will exist to support effective-
shear magnitudes 30-40 kt. stronger cells may transfer enough
momentum from intense midlevel winds to yield damaging surface
downdrafts approaching severe limits, and isolated severe (50+) kt
gust(s) cannot be ruled out.

..edwards/broyles.. 01/08/2019

click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product

note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1630z


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